Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. CPI rose by 1.3% month-on-month and 9.1% year-on-year in June. The year-on-year increase hit a new high since November 1981 and exceeded the 8.6% increase last month.

[Text/ Observer Network Xiong Chaoran] On July 13, Biden , which opened the " Middle East line", just landed Israel , and "bad news" came from the United States: Eastern Time At 8:30 am (8:30 pm on July 13, Beijing time), the latest and eye-catching US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. CPI rose by 1.3% month-on-month and 9.1% year-on-year in June. The year-on-year increase hit a new high since November 1981 and exceeded the 8.6% increase last month. Although the White House html had taken a "precautionary shot" 22 days ago, saying that inflation would be very high in June, the 9.1% data was still higher than expected. Before the data was released, US media and analysts had expected the value to be 8.8%.

Subsequently, the White House released a statement from U.S. President Biden on the latest inflation data. He called the overall U.S. inflation data in June "unacceptably high," but also added that oil prices have fallen recently and "core inflation The rate has dropped for three consecutive months. In addition, "inflation in some European countries is higher than that in the United States" and Putin launching special military operations against Ukraine were also used as excuses for him to "pass the buck".

Many US media pointed out that due to the soaring prices of natural gas , gasoline, food and rent, U.S. inflation reached a new high in nearly 41 years in June, further putting pressure on the daily lives of American families and possibly the Federal Reserve. 's sharp increase in again lays the foundation for . Previously, the Federal Reserve, which had "violently raised interest rates" in June, had hinted that in order to calm inflation, it might raise interest rates by 75 basis points in July.

" Wall Street Journal " report screenshot

United States Inflation reached the highest level in the past 41 years. Picture from " New York Times "

htmlInflation "exploded" in June, energy prices "helped rise"

Reuters , "Wall Street The Daily pointed out that in addition to the data that the CPI rose by 1.3% month-on-month and 9.1% year-on-year in June, other data also showed that the potential inflationary pressure in the United States last month was still huge.

The core inflation data of the United States in June (core CPI, excluding more volatile commodities such as energy and food) rose by 0.7% month-on-month and 5.9% year-on-year, while the data in May increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 6.0% year-on-year.

Comprehensive Associated Press , " Washington Post ", against the background of generally rising prices in the overall U.S. economy, energy prices in June rose by 7.5% month-on-month, driving nearly half of the inflation increase, with a year-on-year increase of 41.6%, the largest year-on-year increase since April 1980.

Among them, the increase in gasoline prices in June far exceeded that of other categories of commodities, rising 11.2% month-on-month and 59.9% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year increase since March 1980.

In addition, rising prices for natural gas, electricity, food and housing are also major causes of inflation. In June, natural gas prices rose 8.2% month-on-month and 38.4% year-on-year, reaching the largest increase since October 2005. Electricity prices also increased in June, up 1.7% month-on-month. Food prices increased by 1.0% month-on-month and 10.4% year-on-year.

However, as gasoline prices have fallen in recent weeks, the Associated Press said some economists are still hopeful that U.S. inflation may be peaking or approaching a short-term peak. Gasoline prices, for example, have dropped from an eye-popping $5 a gallon in mid-June to a current $4.63 a gallon, which, while still much higher than a year ago, could help ease the pain in July or August. Inflation.

As the June inflation data released by the United States exceeded expectations, U.S. stock futures fell once more, Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 2.5%, S&P 500 index futures fell 1.9%, and Dow futures fell 1.4 %.

"Wall Street Journal" screenshot

After the U.S. stock market opened on the morning of the 13th, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively opened lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.17%, the Nasdaq Composite Index falling 1.85%, and the S&P 500 Index falling 1.41%. Large-scale technology stocks generally fell, with Tesla falling by more than 3%, Netflix, Google, and Apple falling by nearly 2%.

The collective decline of the three major U.S. stock indexes after the opening is from the "Wall Street Journal"

Biden: Such high inflation is "unacceptable", but...

On the morning of July 13, local time, the White House released Biden's data on U.S. inflation in June statement of. He said the overall inflation figure was "unacceptably high" but added: "But it is outdated."

Biden insisted that energy alone accounted for nearly half of June's rise in inflation, while Current data do not reflect the full impact of the nearly 30 days of lower oil prices. He also said that oil prices have fallen by about 40 cents since mid-June, providing American households with important "breathing room." In addition, the prices of other commodities such as wheat are also falling.

The White House website publishes Biden's statement on inflation

"Importantly, today's report showed that what economists call the annual "core inflation rate" (core CPI) fell for the third consecutive month, the first decline since last year. The first month the annual “core inflation rate” fell below 6%.”

Biden believes that inflation is the most pressing economic challenge in the United States and has hit almost every country in the world. Citing Europe as an example, he said that Europe also has high inflation rates, and many European countries have higher inflation rates than the United States. As in previous months, in his statement, Biden still "passed the blame" for inflation to Russian President Vladimir Putin, blaming the conflict between Russia and Ukraine for making inflation more serious.

It is worth noting that at the end of Biden's statement, he mentioned that he will "continue to give the Federal Reserve the space it needs to fight inflation."

According to data from the American Automobile Association on June 10, the average price of regular gasoline in the United States once rose to US$4.99 per gallon (approximately 8.83 yuan per liter). Picture from Oriental IC

Inflation is high, and the Federal Reserve may continue to "violently raise interest rates"

At present, sustained high inflation has put great pressure on many companies and consumers. After experiencing price stability for decades, they have begun to change. I have to get used to it.

Before the release of June inflation data, all media expected that high inflation in the United States would continue, and the Federal Reserve would most likely continue to raise interest rates in order to reduce inflation. After the data was released, the US media believed that the matter was a foregone conclusion.

The Associated Press pointed out that persistently high inflation has unnerved Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials, who are conducting the fastest series of interest rate hikes since the late 1980s to try to slow soaring prices.

On May 4 this year, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate hike to combat inflation. This was the largest rate increase in the past 22 years. On June 15, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points in the most aggressive manner in the past 30 years.

Only a week later, at a congressional hearing held on June 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell changed his usual tone and admitted that after the Federal Reserve’s historic interest rate hike, the U.S. economy was likely to decline, and he wanted to achieve soft growth. The landing was "very challenging." However, Powell also insisted that as U.S. inflation exceeds expected levels, tightening monetary policy is an effective tool to combat inflation and that interest rate increases will continue.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell Picture from US media

On July 6, local time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June interest rate resolution meeting. According to the contents of the meeting minutes, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates again by 75 basis points in July. Since the decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in June, many policymakers have expressed their willingness to step up efforts again at a meeting later this month to curb the largest inflationary pressure in 40 years.

Reuters said that if it comes true, this will be the third consecutive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, with a total increase of 200 basis points, or 2 percentage points. The Associated Press reported that Powell has emphasized that the Fed will not withdraw interest rate hikes until it sees "strong evidence" that inflation is slowing, and such evidence is "several months of declining inflation data."

However, many economists worry that the U.S. economy is already slowing in some respects, that the Fed's efforts to curb inflation will lead it to tighten credit too aggressively, and that higher borrowing costs could trigger a recession. , maybe next year.

Inflation exceeded expectations, and the White House "vaccinated" in advance

The CPI data released monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor is an important key indicator for measuring U.S. inflation. Entering 2022, U.S. inflation data has hit new highs for several consecutive months.

Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. CPI rose by 1.2% month-on-month and 8.5% year-on-year in March. At that time, the year-on-year increase reached the highest level since December 1981. U.S. inflation slowed in April but remains close to a 40-year high. In May, U.S. inflation surged again, with CPI rising by 1.0% month-on-month and 8.6% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase once again hit a 40-year high.

Before the release of U.S. June inflation data, on July 11, local time, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre (Karine Jean-Pierre) "vaccinated" in advance. She publicly stated that she was affected by the soaring oil prices. Due to the impact, the U.S. CPI in June will rise significantly. "Capitol Hill" analyzed that the White House was preparing the public's psychology in advance for June's "surge" inflation data.

On July 12, local time, a false report claiming that "U.S. CPI increased by 10.2% year-on-year in June" "preemptively" gained attention and "scared" the market in advance, causing the stock market to fall to an intraday low that day.

The "fake report" circulated online

Although this fake report only began to circulate around 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the 12th, it still caused a negative impact on the U.S. stock market to fall in afternoon trading that day. The U.S. blue chip S&P 500 index swung between small gains and losses throughout the day, falling into negative territory around 2 p.m. in the United States. It did not retract part of its losses until the close, and finally closed down 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite Index , which is dominated by technology stocks, followed the same trend as the S&P 500 Index and also fell 0.9% at the close.

"We have learned that a fake Consumer Price Index report for June 2022 is circulating online." For this reason, the official account of the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics (BLS) quickly called on everyone on Twitter that you should continue to pay attention to 7 Real CPI data released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on July 13 (8:30 p.m. on July 13, Beijing time).

In fact, as traders awaited whether the inflation data released by the United States would provide support for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again this month, the global market has been in a state of panic and risk aversion on the 13th. Stock markets in many countries fell, and the euro was only slightly above parity against the U.S. dollar. level.

Reuters reported that on the 13th, European stock markets were "difficult". Germany's DAX index and Italy's FTSE MIB index both fell by more than 1.2% earlier, and London FTSE Index (London FTSE Index) also followed closely behind. fell. As natural gas and oil prices rise again, EURUSD is hovering at 1.0025.

The day before (12th), the euro-dollar exchange rate fell to 1 in the short term. The euro has fallen more than 11% against the dollar since January, with investors still watching whether the euro will fall below $1 for the first time since 2002.

Kit Juckes, macro strategist at Société Générale , said: "The market is getting some support in terms of euro-dollar parity, but there is still a lot of moving parts." He explained that the U.S. inflation data The higher it goes, the more likely it is that the Fed will raise interest rates.

Reuters pointed out that concerns that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes may cause the global economy to stagnate or even plunge into a recession are the main reasons for the 20% plunge in global stock markets this year and the surge in the safe-haven dollar.

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