1. Trend analysis
Business Society monitoring data shows that, as shown in the figure above, copper prices fluctuated and fell in March. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 47,831.25 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the copper price dropped slightly to 47,310 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 1.09%.
2. Market Analysis
Copper prices fluctuated and fell this month. There was a slight rebound in the middle and then continued to fall, with an overall decline of 2.78%. Although in the middle of the year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike "boots in" and domestic economic data from January to February were better than expected, the copper market was once boosted. However, with the recovery of copper mine supply, the Escondida Copper Mine, the world's largest copper mine, decided to end the 43-day period. Following the strike, workers will gradually resume operations at the Escondida copper mine starting from March 25. As supply increases, copper prices are under pressure. Meanwhile, on the inventory front, copper inventories are increasing. LME Copper stocks fell back at the beginning of this year, but increased significantly after March. As of the end of the month, they were 333,000, an increase of more than 10,000 tons from the end of last year. During the same period, COMEX copper inventories were 136,833 tons, an increase of more than 50% from the end of last year. The copper inventory in the last period was 325,278 tons, an increase of 122% from the end of last year. On the demand side, with the upgrading and intensification of real estate regulation, everyone is further concerned about copper demand.
3. Market Outlook
In summary, due to the resumption of the copper mine strike, supply is expected to increase, and inventories continue to increase, demand is weak, and copper fundamentals are weak. In April, it is expected that real estate regulation will continue and put pressure on it, but generally speaking, April is also the peak season for demand, or demand may be supported. Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels and in a wide range in April.
related listed companies: Jiangxi Copper (600362), Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630), Yunnan Copper (000878).
