Apple's order cuts have impacted the global industrial chain, but TSMC has had little impact. 7nm production capacity is hot, not only Huawei and Qualcomm (Qualcomm) are competing for production capacity, but also AMD (AMD) and Xilinx ( Xilinx) and NVIDIA and many other companies have already lined up to confirm the introduction of the 7nm schedule.
Apple’s (Apple) new iPhone series is not as popular as expected, and the second wave of order cuts that the supply chain had previously worried about finally happened. According to the supply chain, the effect of cutting orders for new iPhone models will gradually appear after November, and the performance of many manufacturers will decline month by month. The market situation in the first quarter of 2019 is even more cold. Currently, one major manufacturer has issued a warning that manpower The streamlining plan has been implemented one after another in an attempt to minimize the impact of order cancellations.
Although the design and performance upgrade of the new iPhone are impressive, except for Apple fans who are loyal to their faith, customers whose main purpose is to show off, and users who have to replace old ones with new ones, its high price strategy has created a purchase threshold for ordinary users. . The supply chain pointed out that after the official global sales of iPhone Xs, iPhone Xs Max and iPhone Shipments have been completed, but the second wave of orders has not been as large as expected. Apple has successively reduced the scale of orders to the supply chain. It is foreseeable that the performance of many manufacturers will weaken significantly after November. Among them, many mobile phone manufacturers such as Apple Largan Guang, which has orders from industry players, has also forecast a decline in revenue in November compared with October.
The supply chain also revealed that one of the major manufacturers has recently carried out organizational reform plans in advance because Apple’s cutting off orders has exceeded expectations. The major manufacturer believes that it is very difficult to earn even one dollar in the current environment, and 2019 will also be very difficult. It will be a difficult and competitive year, so we must reduce expenditures. It is expected to save more than 10 billion yuan through strategies such as streamlining manpower.
In addition, in the manpower reduction plan of this large factory, it is not only the grass-roots workers, but also the general non-technical manpower. It is also reviewing whether the salary and contribution of high-paid employees are proportional to those of their supervisors. In addition, they will also make every effort to reduce the number of workers. Revitalize idle factory buildings. According to
supply chain expectations, this major manufacturer is in the throes of transformation and is facing orders from its largest customer. Therefore, it has to vigorously implement manpower streamlining and cost-saving plans. Due to the reduction of Apple orders, other mobile phone manufacturers have also become more conservative in placing orders. What will happen next? Many manufacturers will also cut back on expenditures to survive the early off-season. Recently, Jialianyi, which happily joined the iPhone soft board supply chain in 2018, laid off 110 dispatch employees without warning, citing tight orders.
However, the supply chain stated that many related industry players are worried about the impact of shrinking orders. At present, the cost of R&D and factory equipment production line construction has not been recovered. Once orders are not as good as in previous years, performance growth momentum will stagnate or even decline. Therefore, active Looking for non-Apple order opportunities, in contrast, TSMC's performance is quite stable, and its order prospects are also quite clear.
It is understood that in terms of Apple orders, in addition to A11 chip orders that are still being shipped, TSMC also has large orders for A12 chips for three new models. Although A12 chips will be shipped less quarter by quarter, the 7nm process production capacity Demand will still exceed supply. In addition to the Huawei Mate 20 series mobile phones equipped with Kirin 980 chips that are now available, Qualcomm's return to TSMC's Snapdragon 8150 chip will also be officially unveiled at the annual technology conference in early December. It is expected to be fully launched in the first quarter of 2019. .
AMD has announced that all advanced process chips with 7nm and below will be manufactured by TSMC. Among them, the Radeon Instinct MI60 and MI50 accelerators are the first to adopt the 7nm process and are specially designed for artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. It will be launched at the end of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 respectively, and the EPYC server processor code-named "ROME" will appear in 2019.
In addition, first-line customers such as Broadcom, Xilinx, and NVIDIA have also placed orders for wafer production; TSMC recently publicly stated that there will be more than 100 tape outs of the 7-nanometer and 7-nanometer EUV processes in 2019, an increase from 2018 There will be a significant expansion of 50 in 2018. It is also expected that the 7nm process will account for more than 20% of revenue in the fourth quarter of 2018. The proportion of 7nm process for the whole year will reach 10%, and the demand for 7nm in 2019 will be even greater. Strong, the proportion will be much higher than 20%. In addition to setting a new single-quarter revenue high in the fourth quarter of 2018, it is also optimistic about the operating outlook for 2019.
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