A-shares marked by the bull market are no longer what they used to be. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index stood at 3,400 points, and the turnover of the two cities exceeded 1.5 trillion. The intraday adjustment was covered by more violent bulls, and the market also showed an unusually violent trend. The bull market is shaking. As the engine of the bull market, brokerage stocks have attracted almost all the attention of the market. The transactions of one sector accounted for 1/10 of the total transactions of the two cities, taking the top spot in the two cities without hesitation. The performance of the "Three Musketeers of Brokerages" is still good. Oriental Fortune once again closed at the daily limit, CITIC Construction Investment also hit the daily limit. Since July alone, the average increase in just a few trading days has reached 40%. For the broader market, this is the weather vane. When will there be a large-scale adjustment in the brokerage sector , and when will the sharp fluctuations in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index begin? From a mid- to long-term perspective, securities companies still deserve great attention. The only problem is that if short-term gains are too large, strong shocks will inevitably occur. The same problem applies to the broader market. If the index continues to rise and does not even experience a retracement of the 5-day line, it may lead to a sudden emergence of profit taking. Therefore, while the index frequently hits new highs, we must still pay attention to short-term Strong shocks will come at times, just like the market before midday today. The most important support for the Shanghai Composite Index in the near future is at the 3300 point line. After a continuous surge, be careful as a strong earthquake is inevitable. Of course, for the bull market, adjustment is not a risk, but an opportunity. Please be sure to keep in mind the main tone of "blue chips set the stage and grow the show" and continue to grasp the three main lines: the big financial market represented by securities companies; the technology stock market represented by 5G, consumer electronics, semiconductors, cloud computing ; domestic demand is determined The stock prices of consumer staples with strong sex appeal, such as food and beverages, medicine and biotechnology. In addition, the market for new energy vehicles driven by rising domestic demand is also worthy of continued attention.
brokerage is still the strongest product. It has made a strong counter-packaging trend in today's session and contributed the most to the index of today's market. Although the current brokerage seems to have risen a lot. Looking at historical data, it is quite illustrative. Before the interest rate cut from the end of October to November 2014, brokerage stocks also rose by more than 30%. So the current point in time is exactly equivalent to the increase before the interest rate cut in November 2014. After the interest rate cut in 2014, brokerage stocks rose even more.
From the perspective of valuation, the valuation of the brokerage sector has increased after the recent surge. However, whether it is the absolute valuation of or or the relative valuation, it is not extreme compared with the historical range. It is worth continuing to improve the prosperity in the second half of the year. expect. Compared with other "old economy" sectors, the valuation of the leading brokerage sector is not high, the downside risk is small, and the expectation of economic improvement is relatively certain. After the market closed today, the securities companies announced their results for June, and the market was extremely pleased. China Merchants Securities had a net profit of 637 million in a single month, Guangfa Securities had a net profit of 918 million in a single month, and CITIC Construction Investment had a net profit of more than 1 billion in a single month... The net profit of 26 brokerages in June was close to 8 billion. The beautiful data brought about the emergence of Davis Double Click, which also reminded investors that in a bull market, brokerages easily give up.
Of course, saying this does not mean that brokerages will not adjust, but that even if there are adjustments, it will be an opportunity for the future. Or you can understand it this way: if there are more adjustments now, the rise will be higher in the future. Therefore, looking forward to adjustments by brokerages is not to bearish on the market, but to enable the brokerage market to go further.
There is another interesting news today, "Morgan Stanley raised the target level of the CSI 300 Index to close to the peak level of the bubble in 2015." This news caused an uproar in the market. The price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 after today's close is 13.7 times, while the price-to-earnings ratio at the peak of the bubble in 2015 reached 19 times. In other words, there is still 50% room for growth from the current position. Once this point of view comes out, the blow to short sellers may be even more severe. So, stay patient, the bull market is still here to stay.
The net inflow of northbound funds today is 3.8 billion, and the buying power has weakened significantly compared with the previous one. Banks fell back in late trading, and brokerage stocks also exploded. Big financial companies want to continue to increase the upward pressure tomorrow, and the index will wait for continuous short squeezes. Correction, so the possibility of consolidation tomorrow is not small.
But remember, adjustment is an opportunity, and the market without adjustment will not last long.
As for the sector, there is not much to say, it is just repeated rotation, even if it is stagflation at the bottom, there is still a chance. For example, today, shipping, aviation, securities, insurance, non-ferrous metals, IT equipment, diversified finance, gambling concepts, digital currency, rare earth permanent magnets, drones, blockchain, information security, big data, gallium nitride, supercapacitors , cloud computing, chips, data centers, public transportation, mineral products, software services, papermaking, semiconductors, telecom operations, communication equipment, etc. are representative industry subdivision indexes. With the continued purchase and purchase stimulation of incremental funds, there are many opportunities. . Of course, I would say that it is enough to just remember the three main lines mentioned above.
Let’s talk about gold. After a few days of silence, gold finally broke through the integer mark of 1,800 US dollars. This is an important psychological mark. Once it breaks through, it means that gold has recovered from its early momentum. In the past few days, the stock market has been performing every day, and gold has consolidated. It took a few days for investors to lose confidence, but now, bulls' confidence is clearly back. In fact, everyone with a discerning eye understands that against the background of the epidemic sweeping the world, the world economic recession, and geopolitical uncertainty intensifying, gold has provided a "safe haven" for investors; while the rise in U.S. debt has triggered market concerns about the U.S. dollar, and many central banks have maintained relatively stable prices. With low interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold is at a low level, and more investors choose to purchase gold to maintain wealth. According to statistics from the World Gold Council, in the first six months of this year, the total inflow of global gold ETF reached an astonishing 734 tons. This number even far exceeds the previous annual inflow record, and also pushed the total holdings of global gold ETFs to a record high of 3,621 tons. From this perspective, breaking through 1800 is still only a small goal. Gold will still find ways to set a new historical high record. US$1920 will not be a dream.
The stock market has been booming in recent days. It is said that the number of online account openings has increased sharply, five or six times more than usual. New investors are so fierce that they don't care about the K-line at all. The longer it is, the more they chase it. Today is even more interesting. 60 out of 100 people thought there would be a correction, but suddenly, 70 new investors came in...
