The high-profile G7 summit and NATO summit have come to an end. Western countries, led by the United States, have basically reached an agreement on how to target Russia and support Ukraine . However, this does not mean that there is no internal conflict in the West. No cracks.
Judging from a series of events such as Germany's unwillingness to break up with Russia, Turkey and the United Kingdom, the situation is not that simple.
html On the 1st, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army Zaluzhny said that on that day, the Russian army dispatched two Su-30 fighter jets and then launched two sudden attacks on Snake Island . Zaluzhny revealed that the Russian army withdrew from Snake Island when the Ukrainian army used artillery and missiles to counterattack the Russian army.As of now, Russia has not responded to this matter.
The day before, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that the Russian army had voluntarily left Snake Island. The Ukrainian military subsequently stated that although the Russian army left Snake Island, the Ukrainian army had not yet landed on Snake Island.
It is not difficult to see that there are inconsistencies in Ukraine's statements. If the Russian army really withdrew from Snake Island, why would Putin counterattack Snake Island? Isn't this unnecessary?
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. The Russian army is storming the last stronghold of the Ukrainian army in Luhansk and shelling Kharkov and other places. Chechnya President Kadyrov said that it is very difficult to We can capture the entire Luhansk soon.
But at this time, new variables appeared, and there are at least two things worth noting.
1, Israel once again provoked Russia. On July 2, the Syrian Ministry of Defense confirmed that Israel launched a raid in southern Tartus, causing injuries to at least 2 people in Syria. In response to Syria's rhetoric, Israel chose to remain silent.
Regarding Israel’s raid on Syria, there are three details worth noting.
First of all, the timing of Israel's trouble with Syria is unusual. On the one hand, it is a foregone conclusion that Israeli Prime Minister Bennett will step down. This means that even if Israeli Foreign Minister Lapid can temporarily replace Bennett, the Knesset has been dissolved, the Israeli election is about to begin, and Netanyahu is preparing In the event of a comeback, Rapid may not be able to gain a firm footing.
Unlike Bennett and Lapid, Netanyahu is more inclined to support Trump , does not get along well with Biden , and has a tougher attitude towards Iran . If Netanyahu becomes the Prime Minister of Israel again, Israel is likely to prevent the United States from returning to the Iran nuclear agreement. In this case, the Israeli military will take more actions against Syria and Iran.
On the other hand, before the Israeli air strikes on Syria, Syria made an important decision to recognize the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk. Because of this incident, was so angry that Ukraine chose to "break off diplomatic relations" with Syria. In addition, " New York Times " revealed that after receiving military training in Russia, Syrian soldiers have appeared on the battlefield in Ukraine and are fighting side by side with the Russian army.
From an Israeli perspective, it is not surprising that it directly launched a raid on Syria in order to submit a petition to the United States.
Secondly, during this period, Israel frequently targeted Syria, including bombing Damascus with missiles, which also caused many casualties in Syria. In June, Russia summoned the Israeli ambassador to Russia to express strong dissatisfaction with Israel's shelling of Syria's international airport. Russia warned Israel at the time that it must not continue to bombard Syria and must respect Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
In order to stand up for Syria, Russia also issued a warning to Turkey, which was waiting for an opportunity and was preparing to send troops to northern Syria. Putin believes that the deployment of Turkish troops to Syria may trigger a new round of conflict and Turkey should exercise restraint.
Sure enough, after Russia issued an "ultimatum" to Israel, Israel stopped for a long time. But half a month later, Israel still chose to bombard Syria, which was obviously a provocation to Russia.
If Putin chooses to be patient, Russia may lose face internationally.
In 2021, Russia had issued a similar warning to Israel, but Israel did not listen. In 2022, Russia once again spoke out for Syria, but the result was still a slap in the face.
It is not difficult to see that Israel is not so afraid of Russia with the support of the United States.
Finally, the situation in the Middle East is indeed constantly changing, and the possibility of the powder keg being ignited cannot be ruled out. Not long ago, in the Strait of Hormuz, three Iranian ships "surrounded" two US warships. The US military chose to open fire to warn the Iranian navy, and the two sides faced off for almost an hour.
When the conflict was about to escalate, the Iranian navy was less than 45.7 meters away from the US warships. It would be unreasonable to say that the US military was not worried.
Earlier, Iran also seized two Greek oil tankers, and Greece seized an Iranian oil tanker and sent 115,000 tons of oil on board to the United States.
With the Iran nuclear agreement negotiations pending and Russia stepping up for Syria, Israel's successive raids on Syria will inevitably make the situation in the Middle East more complicated.
The outcome of the Israeli election will have a profound impact on the situation in the Middle East and the world, and will also affect the 2024 US election. For Biden, Netanyahu's comeback is undoubtedly difficult to accept, but Trump is happy to see it happen. From the perspective of Iran, this is also unacceptable.
Putin also has to make a choice whether to give Israel a slap in the face or to swallow his anger. Syria is waiting for Russia's response.
In the final analysis, apart from relying on Russia to counter the United States, Israel and Türkiye, Syria really has nothing to do.
Second, Putin gave Modi three "big gifts". On the 1st, Putin held a telephone conversation with Indian Prime Minister Modi. Putin promised Modi that Russia has always been a reliable supplier of food, fertilizer and energy to India, and it is also a partner of India.
Putin and Modi believe that Russia and India should deepen cooperation in the economic field, and the two sides also discussed the Russia-Ukraine conflict in detail.
Previously, during a meeting with the President of Indonesia, Putin said that the global food crisis is related to the United States’ unlimited printing of dollars. On this basis, the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia have exacerbated the global food crisis.
Even though Russia is in crisis, Russia is still willing to export large quantities of fertilizers and grains to India. This just proves the saying "a friend in need is a friend indeed". For Putin, India is of course happy to see the results of its insistence on buying Russian oil despite U.S. warnings, but the storage of grain and fertilizers is of great strategic significance to Russia now.
India's choice to import Russian oil has alleviated Russia's pressing needs to some extent. Putin has always had clear grievances. Since India is so interesting, Russia will of course give back to India.
For India, food, fertilizer and energy can be said to be three "big gifts" from Russia. India needs these materials very much now.
For Putin, in addition to adjusting battlefield tactics in a timely manner according to changes in the situation, it is also crucial to maneuver both vertically and horizontally in diplomacy. The United States is constantly at war, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may turn into a protracted contest. If we want to break the blockade between the United States and Europe, must have more friends and fewer enemies. Only in this way can 's external strategy be at ease.
After the NATO summit, the United States should make new moves, and the challenges facing Russia have just begun. Judging from the many actions of Norway , Netherlands , Sweden , the United Kingdom and Japan, it is indeed difficult for Russia.
As for what Putin will do, whether Biden will leave a way out for Russia and wait patiently.
