Wall Street bankers believe that no matter who wins the election this year, it will not cause major changes to the economic situation in Brazil. Brazil's "UOL" website
[South American Overseas Chinese News Network compiled Zhang Yu report] Recently, bankers at the "American financial center" Wall Street (Wall Street), believe that whether it is former president Lula da Silva or current president Bolsonaro (Jair Bolsonaro ), it should not cause major interference to Brazil's optimistic economic prospects.
Brazil's "UOL" website reported on October 22 that several sources who have participated in the traditional annual meeting of International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (Banco Mundial) said executives from financial institutions in the United States, Europe and the United Kingdom pointed out that Brazil's parliament is expected to be a "key factor" to avoid major changes.
In the challenging macroeconomic environment, multiple meetings held on the sidelines of the IMF annual meeting conveyed a message that Brazil performed outstandingly in some aspects compared to other countries in Latin America and even the world. Brazil's economy is on a growing trend during a period of economic recession plaguing global markets. However, although Brazil's benchmark interest rate has increased and inflation has declined for three consecutive months, its fiscal situation is still very worrying.
A banker said: "Wall Street bankers have reached a consensus that no matter who takes charge of the next administration, Brazil's economy will not change significantly. Among them, the role of Congress is crucial." Another interviewee who also declined to be named pointed out: "If Lula wins, Congress will prevent him from taking any radical policies or unorthodox measures. If Bolsonaro is successful in re-election, then Congress has the right to curb his absurd actions."
Wall Street bankers believe that the arguments about the current economic situation in developed countries during the IMF's annual meeting are in a negative state, and the degree of uncertainty and distrust are "quite high." However, Brazil and other Latin American countries have different views and their speech is "more positive". Brazilian Economy Minister Paulo Guedes also mentioned this situation when attending the above meeting in the United States, saying that Brazil is "the opposite" to the global "disappointing".
Nevertheless, fiscal issues remain one of the focus of Brazil's attention, as the positive impact of tax cuts in fighting inflation and increasing social welfare is often delayed. At the IMF meeting, many parties issued warnings on this. It is said that the current situation should be provided to the most vulnerable groups, while continuing to focus on fiscal policy.
IMF President Georgieva (Kristalina Georgieva) said: "When monetary policy hits the brakes (such as raising interest rates), the fiscal policy accelerator should not be stepped on (such as reducing taxes). Otherwise, it is possible to embark on a difficult road."
