In October 2022, the quadrennial Brazil presidential election went to war.
Brazil is not only the largest country in the southern hemisphere, but also the country with the largest economic and population size in the southern hemisphere. The election not only determines Brazil's next four years, but also has a certain influence on the global political situation.
left-wing leader, known as the "most popular former president", Lula (in office from 2002 to 2010) stands out from the first round of elections with the current president, the extreme right-wing stands out from the first round of elections.
According to the first round of vote counting, among the 116 million votes, Lula won 48.03%. Bolsonaro followed closely with a vote rate of 43.54%. The remaining nine candidates received a total of 8.4% of the votes. With the others being eliminated, the two will have a more intense battle in the final game.
Lula and Bolsonaro represent the ultimate showdown between Brazil's left and right wings . The two of them have completely contrary styles of conduct and policy programs.
▲Lula is temporarily leading
Since the fall of the military government in 1980, the struggle between Brazil's left and right wing parties has lasted for more than 40 years.
After entering the 21st century, as the strength of the left wing increased, the right wing, which had been controlling the regime for many years, became more extreme, and the struggle between the two sides became increasingly fierce.
Bolsonaro is the "fan" of Trump and is called "tropical Trump". In the four years since his administration, his distinctive personality and perverse policies have won a lot of support for Bolsonaro, but clear opponents also account for 40% of Brazilian voters. feels like Lula's votes have been picked up.
Bolsonaro and Lula , just like the Brazilian version of Trump vs Biden. The battle between the left and right wings behind the Brazilian presidential election completely tore up Brazilian society.
"The most popular former president" vs "Tropical Trump", who will kill the Brazilian presidential election? Where will Brazil, at the intersection of left and right forks, go?
▲Bolsonaro supporter
1. Shoewizard and Army Captain
The political concept of left and right wings first appeared in France in the 18th century. When the third-level meeting was held, the republicans who supported social reform sat on the left side of the hall, while the nobles who believed in traditional order sat on the right side. The position of the seat of
has gradually become synonymous with factional views. The left and right wings have also been output from French Revolution , and its connotation has been continuously enriched and refined, becoming a common term in international politics.
Today's Left wing mostly believes that what is unfair is a social problem that needs to be improved urgently, and emphasizes the redistribution of wealth and social resources through government intervention.
right wing believes that inequality is a natural product of development, emphasizes economic liberalization, and disagrees with excessive government intervention.
▲Level 3 Conference
Compared with the long-standing French , Brazil 822 independent from Portugal and established a monarchy, and established a republic in 1889. A short history failed to shape Brazil's perfect political culture. The right-wing supported by the aristocrats and capitalists controlled the regime, while the left-wing, which relied on the civilian class, declined for a long time.
colonial period manor economy profoundly influenced Brazil's modern history. After independence, Brazil embarked on the path of development dominated by agricultural and mining exports.
, especially the coffee plantations throughout the country, have given birth to Brazil a number of "coffee economy oligarchs ". They adhere to the traditional political system and economic system, do not support social reform, and are typical right-wing.
The major landlords have always held the Brazilian regime through cooperation with European and American countries and military. They made a lot of money, and the vast majority of farmers could only survive on the survival line.
▲Coffee plantation is widely distributed
In midsummer of 1952, an old long-distance bus drove into the station of Santos City, Santos, Brazil.
A shabby little boy jumped out of the car. The 7-year-old Lula didn't care about going to see the city in front of him. As the second youngest among the 8 siblings, the sensible Lula hurried to help his parents hold up their heavy luggage.
This poor peasant family from Pernambuco State in northeastern Brazil, in order to find a glimmer of vitality, came thousands of miles to the economically developed Sao Paulo State , but life here is not friendly to this family.
▲Young Lula (left)
From 1930 to Lula was born in 1945, the impact of the Great Depression and World War II caused a large number of Brazilian farmers to be extremely poor. Under the turmoil, the Brazilian agricultural and mining oligarchs lost the regime and the industrial and commercial elites came to power. The industrial and commercial elites no longer encourage the development of agriculture and mining, but instead promote Brazil's industrialization.
Due to family poverty, Lula has only been to elementary school for 5 years, and after class, he has to go to the street to polish his shoes to make money. In 1957, 12-year-old Lula was forced to drop out of school and worked as an apprentice in a dyeing shop in Santos. Two years later, he changed his career to become a hardware worker.
▲Santos
After World War II Brazilian was dragged into the Cold War. Although the specific policies are different, the newly-entered industrial and commercial elites belong to the same right-wing as the previous agricultural and mining oligarchs. They emphasized reducing welfare and reducing government intervention, and refused to break the original order.
The hardships of the poor are rarely taken into consideration, and the left-wing , which advocates maintaining social fairness, reducing the gap between the rich and the poor, and increasing welfare, has always been hiding in the shadow of the political arena due to being suppressed by the right wing.
Under the influence of the Soviet Union and other countries, the left-wing forces in Latin America were revitalized after World War II. The Latin American left's pursuit of social fairness coincided with the Soviet Union's political pursuit, and the cooperation between the two sides was strengthened.
The strength of the left wing has increased, and some Brazilian left wing politicians have entered the political arena.
In 1961, the left-wing vice president Gurat became a regular person because of the president's resignation. Gulat immediately strengthened cooperation with the Sudong Group to promote land reform and nationalization of oil and other departments.
▲Gulat
Gulat 's policy caused the industry of a large number of right-wing elites to damage. The military immediately launched a coup in 1964 and established a military government in Brazil. But Brazil's left-wing movement did not sink.
966, 21-year-old Lula was lying on a hospital bed. As an "old worker", Lula accidentally cut off his little finger while working. As a member of the Brazilian Communist Party brother came to the hospital to see him. The brother said angrily:
"Luis (nickname of Lula), the industry union decided to hold a strike at the Santos Pier. If successful, it will fight for more rights for the workers... You are injured but there is no compensation. I hope you will also participate!"
▲Military and political advent
▲Military and political advent
on the bed of the hospital said to my brother:
"I will go, the military government is always promoting itself to lead Brazil's economic growth. We are the people who create wealth, but fail to enjoy wealth, which is unfair."
From then on, young hrah is frequently active in the left wing rally. He was often seen standing on the roof of a car in his signature shirt and jeans shouting radical left-wing slogans.
During the military rule, thanks to the dual demands of the international and domestic markets and the industrialization policies vigorously promoted by the military, Brazil's economy has developed unprecedentedly.From
968 to 1974, the average annual economic growth rate exceeded 10%, and the per capita GDP jumped to the $1,000 mark, which was at the same level as South Korea, which had its economic takeoff during the same period. However, under the rapid economic growth, right-wing ignores the redistribution of interests, and a large number of rich people emerged, and more poor people were born together.
▲ in the 1960s Rio
Economic growth cannot cover up Brazil's social problems. From the 1960s to 1970s, Brazil's Gini coefficient (value 0-1, higher the value, the greater the gap between the rich and the poor) rose from 0.4 to 0.61, and left-wing was furious. In Santos, Lula and others launched a massive demonstration again, but were all suppressed by the military.
In order to consolidate the regime, the military government on the one hand wins over its supporters such as the industry and business community, the middle class, and on the other hand, it accelerates the cultivation of military elites and strengthens its own strength.
977, the 22-year-old Bolsonaro graduated from the Brazilian Black Needle Military Academy. This white boy, who grew up in El Dorado, São Paulo, advocated the authority of military personnel since he was a child, hoping to leave his poor hometown and achieve revenge on a broader stage.
Home racial discrimination is serious, and local black people are not allowed to participate in club activities, which deeply affects the three views of Bolsonaro .
▲ Military Academy student Bolsonaro took a photo with his family
When he was young, he was a staunch military supporter. In 1970, 15-year-old Bolsonaro took the initiative to assist the military government in raiding left-wing guerrillas.
Bolsonaro believes that class differences are inherent. If you want to become a member of the elite, you must keep working hard instead of relying on the "care" of the left.
is different from Lula, who has only been to elementary school for 5 years. Bolsonaro After graduating from the famous Black Needle Military Academy, he entered the Brazilian Army Sports Academy to study and graduated with the first place in the class. He entered the Brazilian elite paratroopers as a lieutenant officer, responsible for the physical fitness assessment of soldiers, and initially achieved his goal.
From a personal perspective, Bolsonaro is a typical right-wing supporter, but no one expected that he would go more and more on the right-wing path.
▲elite Naro
2. Party leader and angry youth
was affected by factors such as the oil crisis in the 1970s and rising credit interest rates. Brazil's economic growth slowed down in the late 1970s, inflation and foreign debt were increasing, and people became increasingly opposed to the Brazilian military government.
In 1979, Military Government promulgated a new party bill to allow the opposition to resume activities. The left wing seized the opportunity and established a new political party.
980, Silvera Martinez Street, Sao Paulo. left-wing slogans are hung all over the facade of the building, and the voices are noisy inside the building. As the chairman of the São Paulo State Trade Union, Lula , like other left-wing people, celebrates the establishment of the Brazilian Labor Party.
▲In 1979, Lula gave a speech
Lulla hugged his comrades-in-arms. He happily said:
"We must continue to work hard for the fairness of Brazil and for the poor to gain dignity."
Brazil's economy stagnated in the 1980s. Taking 1982 as an example, the total amount of foreign debt, principal and interest, that year was 7% of GDP, which was 91% of the total import and export volume.
Under the pressure of high inflation and high foreign debt, Brazil is forced to tighten its economic policies. The opposition held a march of millions to demand the resumption of the presidential election. The military was forced to agree to resume elections in 1985, and the military government, which ruled Brazil for 21 years, entered history.
The Brazilian military that lost its regime is no longer a special group, and the salaries of middle and lower-level officers including Bolsonaro have been affected.In Bolsonaro's dictionary, there is never the word "follow the rules". Since his life was affected, he simply submitted articles to a well-known magazine in 1986, complaining about the unfair treatment of the army.
▲Captain Bo's article
Because of violating military discipline, Captain Bo "happy to" confinement for 15 days. But he did not stop. The radical captain conspired with his colleagues the following year to detonate a small bomb in the barracks to show his dissatisfaction with the low-paying wages. But the plot was leaked, and Bolsonaro and others were arrested.
Due to insufficient evidence, Bolsonaro escaped the trial by chance, but he completely lost the trust of his superiors. The superiors' evaluation of him was:
"Bolsonaro is extremely ambitious...but he lacks rationality and logical thinking."
To sum up in one sentence - people are addicted to food.
▲Bolsonaro's action plan
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In 1988, Bolsonaro was elected as a member of Rio de Janeiro City Council. Bolsonaro insists on his right-wing conservative view. He delivered a speech at the city council:
"Soldiers should take the bus in Rio de Janeiro for free... There is no need to increase welfare expenditure, it is impossible to care for the poor for the rest of their lives."
▲MP Naro
is different from Bolsonaro . Lula, who is 10 years older than him, has higher political ambitions. After the fall of the military government, Brazil quickly resumed universal presidential elections. Lula, who has been elected as a member of parliament since 1986 and served as chairman of the Labor Party, decided to represent the Labor Party in 1989 to attack the Brazilian election.
He confidently told his supporters:
"The 1980s were the 10 years lost by Brazil's economy, and this was all caused by the wrong policies of the right wing... Brazil has been independence since it has been, and the right wing has been in the center of power for too long, so it's time for them to leave."
It’s a pity that the Labor Party led by Lulah does not have enough power to shake the political foundation of the right wing, and the people pay attention to their own interests rather than the slogans of the left and right wings. The United States, which regards Brazil as its own sphere of influence, does not want the left to come to power and increases support for the right.
▲Lula
After the general election lost in 1989, Lula led the Labor Party to fight again in the 1994 and 1998 elections, both ending in failure.
Compared with Lula , the career of "wild road elite" Bolsonaro is smoother. In 1990, Bolsonaro resigned from his position as a Rio city council member and participated and was successfully elected as a member of Congress.
Because there is no strong party as a backing, Bolsonaro has limited influence. Only 2 of the 170 bills he proposed in the House of Representatives were passed, with almost no achievements.
▲Bo congressman without a sense of existence
populist , far-right wing remarks have made Bolsonaro controversial. As a soldier, he publicly expressed his nostalgia for the military government:
"At that time, Brazilians had free, safe, high-quality education and medical care, and now there is nothing."
For this reason, he even spoke in Congress:
"The military should close the Congress and rebuild the military government."
's unobstructed problem caused a lot of trouble to Bolsonaro , and the House of Representatives' email address kept receiving letters asking Bolsonaro to resign. Thanks to the support of far-right groups, Bolsonaro retained his status as a member of parliament.
▲In 2014, Bolsonaro and his son commemorated the 50th anniversary of the founding of the military government in Parliament
At this time, Lula began to make in-depth adjustments to the Labor Party after three consecutive elections failed. Suits replace the iconic casual outfit, and the campaign slogan is no longer radical.
In 2002, Lula was installed again. Labour Party abandons radical left-wing views and wins a large number of votes from centrist voters. The economic crisis in Brazil in 1998 increased public dissatisfaction with the right-wing government of .
Economic miracle is a thing of the past. In the 1970s, South Korea, whose per capita GDP was comparable to Brazil, continued to develop after entering the 21st century. In 2001, the per capita GDP reached US$12,000.
Brazil fell into the middle-income trap due to improper policies, and its per capita GDP in the same year was only 20% of South Korea.
▲Brazil's slum
Under the influence of two phases, Lula defeated his right-wing competitor Jose Sera with a vote rate of 61.3%, becoming Brazil's first left-wing president after the dissolution of the military government. After
took office, Lula immediately adjusted the policies of the right-wing government. At the Cabinet meeting, Lula pointed out:
"The right-wing economic policies have caused Brazil to fall into the economic quagmire. We must change the development model... The civilian class cannot be forgotten. They are the main body of Brazilians, and we must tilt resources towards them."
▲Lula was elected
As the left-wing president, Lula did not forget the fundamental proposition of the left. He promised the Brazilian people:
"The government will increase welfare expenditure... narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, eliminate hunger, and strive to maintain social fairness" .
Lula then frequently punched. He cracked down on corruption, increased investment in science, education, culture and health, and stopped disorderly development of the Amazon rainforest.
Lula All policies have played a role, and Brazil's economy has accelerated again. Social problems such as chaos in public security and gap between the rich and the poor have been curbed. With great public expectations, Lula successfully won the 2006 election and achieved re-election.
▲Lulla and supporters
By developing multilateral diplomacy with China, Russia and the United States, Brazil's status in the international community has been significantly improved and plays an increasingly important role. During Lula's second term, Brazil successively won the host rights of the 2014 Football Federation World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympic Games .
In office for 8 years, Brazil's GDP grew from US$0.51 trillion to US$2.21 trillion, an increase of 330%. Lula's reform plan lifted 38 million Brazilians out of poverty, and Brazil's economic status jumped to the seventh largest economy in the world.
▲Brazil's economic growth
In 2010, Lula stepped down from office after expiration, and his approval rating was still as high as 87%. Lula's chief of staff Rousseff, with his support, became the first female president in Brazil's history.
3. Road to the Palace of Morning
Left wing In the past years, Bolsonaro has not given up on the views of far-right wing and has made many discriminatory remarks against women, minorities and homosexual groups.
In 2003, a female congresswoman accused him of discriminating against female and was a disguised rapist. Bolsonaro immediately responded:
"I won't rape you because you are not worthy."
▲Bolsonaro's congressional female congressman
When asked whether he would accept his children's love with black people, Bolsonaro "full of confidence":
"My child has received a good education, this kind of thing cannot happen."
Although it was marginalized in the parliament, Bolsonaro did not give up on its dream. He always yearns for the highest peak of this class - the Brazilian President.
▲I have a dream
In 2014, when Rousseff's first term ended, Bolsonaro was ready to participate in the presidential election that year. Friends of the same member of the House of Representatives Alberto Fraga advised him:
"It is still the position of the House of Representatives more suitable for you."
Bolsonaro was unmoved, he said to Fraga :
"I must end the rule of the left... This will be my last term in the House of Representatives... I will definitely sit in the Palace of Morning (Presidential Palace of Brazil).
▲Palace of Morning Palace
▲Palace of Morning Palace
"big mouth" and lacks political foundation Bolsonaro failed to create a miracle, Rousseff was successfully re-elected. But at the same time, a crisis is approaching Labor Party .
In early 2014, the general election had not yet begun, Brasilia owner Carlos Chartre for suspected money laundering. Chartre confessed and washed The police, code-named "car wash" will gradually become uncontrollable. Following the confession of Costa and others, the police arrested 150 businessmen and officials suspected of economic crimes following the confession of Costa and others.
▲Lula and Rousseff
▲ tml3In March 2016, the police took Lula away from home, and President Rosef is also under investigation.
As the investigation deepens, Brazilian Attorney General Janut said:
"During the period from 2002 to 2016, 8 senior Labor Party leaders including Lula and Rousseff made illegal profits of US$480 million by controlling Petrobras.
One stone caused a thousand storms. The worker-born Lula has always appeared in front of the public as a defender of social justice. He is linked to money crimes, which makes it difficult for Brazilian people to accept.
▲opponents mocked Lula with balloons
On April 11, 2016, the Brazilian parliament passed the Rosey 38 to 27. The impeachment of . The relevant bill officially came into effect in August. Rousseff was stripped of the presidency and Vice President Temer succeeded.
Temer comes from a middle party that cooperates with the Labor Party. After completing the remaining term of Rousseff , Temer stepped down in 2019.
corruption scandal caused Labor Party to plummet, and the dormant Bolsonaro saw an opportunity.
Bolsonaro Although he lost the 2014 general election, he has accumulated a certain popularity. Although the character image is full of controversy, as a former soldier and a member of parliament with no sense of existence, Bolsonaro 's character is clean and self-disciplined, which is a sharp difference from the Labor Party in the vortex of corruption.
▲The impeached Rousseff
Current President Lula was disqualified from the election due to corruption cases, a large number of centrist voters turned to Bolsonaro, and Bolsonaro's poll support ranks first.
is not Bolsonaro do like it, but the left-wing election is sluggish, Bolsonaro seems to have become the only choice.
In the final vote, Bolsonaro defeated left-wing party candidate Ada with a 10% lead and was elected President of Brazil.
Bolsonaro lived in the Palace of Morning Light, and from the first day he became the owner of the building, the era of the left is gone forever.
▲Bolsonaro took office. The person wearing the ribbon was the resigned president Temer
4. The ultimate battle
soldier-born Bolsonaro absorbed a large number of former soldiers into the cabinet, and 7 of the 22 ministers had military backgrounds. The new layout under Conservatism has begun.
The first thing that is hit is the welfare policy. Bolsonaro said:
"High benefits will only increase our burden. We should raise the maximum retirement age, lower the termination threshold, and cancel the termination compensation..."
Bolsonaro Brazil returned to the conservative track. The slogans of fairness have been rarely mentioned, and the problem of intensifying the gap between the rich and the poor and class solidification has once again intensified.
▲Bolsonaro has a good relationship with the military
Bolsonaro does not like the left-wing government's intervention in the economy. He has his own opinion on Brazil's economic policies:
"We cannot take care of everything, we must expand privatization... streamline government agencies, improve administrative efficiency, and build small government and large markets."
As the country with the strongest comprehensive strength in South America, the right-wing's re-emergence has also affected Brazil's foreign relations.
Bolsonaro's set of punches made the Samba giant wheel turn right quickly. Bosch, holding the flag of "Brazil supremacy", took advantage of the wave of Brazil's populism to promote its anti-globalization policy.
In the view of Bolsonaro :
"Brazil should clarify its traditional Western attributes. The Labor Party's policy of being good friends with everyone is not suitable for Brazil. Brazil must have its own unique identity positioning."
▲As I said,
Bolsonaro strengthened relations with Latin American right-wing countries such as Chile , Argentina , and Bolsonaro praised it very much for the master of White House at that time, understand Trump.
Bolsonaro, like Trump , belongs to the president who "don't stop talking." Boshi regards the King as his political idol, not only learns the King's "Twitter Governance", but all cabinet appointments and removals are posted through Twitter .
He also accused climate change of a "fake proposition", opposing immigration, and intending to move the embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and follow Trump in everything.
▲Study
Bolsonaro also learned to understand the king's "retreatment disease", insisting that Brazil is above everything else, on the one hand, leaning towards the United States and the West, and withdrawing from South American Alliance and Latin American Community one after another.
Bolsonaro has gained favor from the United States, but has severely defeated Brazil's all-round diplomatic achievements and its international influence has declined. Shortly after taking office, the new crown epidemic swept across Brazil. "Brazil Trump" once again said:
"This is just a small cold, there is no need to take it to heart, and there is no need to control it."
For the Minister of Health who raised his objections, Bolsonaro did not hesitate to copy his squid. After a slap in the operation, Brazil followed the United States and became the second country in the world to have confirmed the new crown and have exceeded one million confirmed cases, and it is definitely the "two heroes of America".
▲Adhere to not wear a mask
Bolsonaro himself was also infected with the new coronavirus. After being discharged from the hospital for a brief treatment, he posted on Twitter:
"I am taking hydroxychloroquine ...There are no symptoms of the new coronavirus, and there is no need to pay too much attention."
The hydroxychloroquine mentioned by Bolsonaro has not been recognized by doctors, but Trump once mentioned:
"This thing is effective in treating the new crown."
Bolsonaro's example of error has attracted a "bombardment" from the Brazilian medical community.
▲Trump's medicine must have miraculous effects
Four years in power, Brazil under the rule of Bolsonaro did not achieve impressive development results. Instead, shooting cases occurred frequently, rainforests continued to degenerate, and population conflicts continued to accumulate.
In addition to a large number of supporters, Bolsonaro's opposition rate is as high as 40%. The supporters are also complicated, 30% simply hope to replace people in politics, 25% only oppose the Labor Party, and less than half of Bosch's hard-core supporters.
When 022 presidential election horn sounded, Lula returned again. Lula's campaign propaganda is extremely simple - "Back to the past". The "past" Lula refers to is economic growth and social equity.
Compared with military and police systems, merchants, rural landowners, and evangelical Christians that support Bolsonaro , Lula's basic base covers more people, including the vast majority of the poor, women, workers and some middle-class people.
▲opponents believe that Bolsonaro is the devil
Bolsonaro As a far-right politician, he has never recognized Brazil's electoral system. After entering the second round of elections, he said:
"If I declare my campaign failed, I will not admit it."
The left and right wing confrontation is not the exclusive feature of Brazil. In the first half of 2022, in the presidential elections of South Korea, France and other countries, there have been fierce confrontations in the left and right wings. , Italy's first female prime minister, Meloni, who recently won the general election, is also the representative of the Italian far-right. Under the confrontation between
, some Western politicians chose to integrate left and right views and took the middle route to win more votes; some countries' left and right wings embarked on a more intense showdown, leading to a social tear.
With the help of his super high support during his tenure, there was a view that Lula will win in the first round, but the actual result was that he and Bolsonaro were evenly matched.
It seems that the far-right wing Bolsonaro can still fight. Left or right? Fusion or tear? This is a choice that Brazilians must make.
▲Right or left?
