Text | Sister Wen Qian Big
This article was first published on the WeChat public account "Sister Wen Qian Big" (ID: sisy-world).
The story I want to tell today is called "a failed politician". What I want to discuss will be an event that has attracted worldwide attention.
For a long time, everyone thought that Merkel was the most powerful female politician in the world. Now, her figure is about to withdraw from the political stage, and slowly, she will no longer shine. Before the 2015 wave of refugees in Europe, no one thought she would lose the 2017 campaign, and people thought she would be the most successful woman, or the best political example; But after that, Merkel's decision completely changed her situation.
▲German Chancellor Angela Merkel: The transformation from a young girl to an iron lady
In Germany, there were only two major parties, one was the "Christian Democratic Party" led by Merkel, referred to as "CDU", and the other was the "socialist party", referred to as "SPD". However, after the Syrian refugee wave appeared in 2015, a "alternative choice party" quickly emerged in Merkel's hometown of Mecklenburg (Mecklenburg-Former Pomery), known as "AfD", and their core concept is "pure Germany". Does this concept sound like Hitler’s resurrection? But the leader of AfD is a woman and doesn't look like Hitler.
Merkel participated in three consecutive local elections, the first one was in her hometown where she once won many battles. This time, the CDU she led actually received only 19% of the vote in Meiqianzhou, becoming the last. AfD actually received 20.8%, so I said the concept of "pure German" still exists in the blood of .
In the third game, the election was in Berlin, the capital of Germany, which was of great significance, but Merkel still suffered a historic setback. 17.6% of votes is the lowest vote record ever made by CDU in Berlin.
▲ At the 2016 Hangzhou G20 Summit, Merkel looked at his mobile phone
Why did Merkel's situation become like this in just a few years? The incident began with the civil war breaking out in Syria during the "Arab Spring" revolution. The Assad regime in Syria tends toward Russia, so the United States provides weapons to the local rebels, causing war in Syria and causing heavy casualties.
By 2012, ISIS rose in full swing and turned into a global and huge crisis. During the 9/11th session, more than 2,300 people died in the United States, and the people cried and commemorated for 15 years. Of course, I feel very sad about this. But in the view of those Westerners, Middle East died of 1 million people, which is just a number, not a crisis.
When the civil war occurred in Libya , other countries had to intervene because there was oil here; but when the location of the civil war became Syria, no one would intervene.
▲ ruins and guns form the childhood of the younger generation of Syrian refugees
In this protracted crisis, half of Syria's original 24 million residents became refugees. These people were forced to leave their homes and flee to neighboring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. However, many people were driven away by the Turkish government on the grounds of "I'm sorry, you are Kurds". or some places are already overcrowded and food is difficult to supply, so a large number of refugees crossing the sea to Europe.
In 2015, a photo of a little Syrian boy lying on the beach attracted worldwide attention. A group of refugees applied to go to Türkiye. After being rejected by the Turkish government, they decided to cross the Aegean Sea to Greece . As a result, the waves hit and the boat capsized, and the little boy drowned. Angelina Jolie told all Westerners at the UN General Assembly that in the same year that these Syrian refugees did not take the initiative to come to Europe, they just wanted to seek a minimum safe life.
▲ Just a wave, a fresh little life disappeared
At the 2015 refugee wave, Merkel jumped up with a warm smile for the first time - she bet on her political career, opened up the German border, and accepted refugees in large quantities.
In the past few years, the reason why Merkel has been very successful in politics is that she has never had any feelings. She took a careful step back and observed many things slowly, and waited until the time was ripe before she came out to make decisions. To put it bluntly, all she did was to look at the faces of the people and never made any great reforms.
As a political science learner, I have also worked in political work. I think If a person engages in politics, if he does not have a minimum conscience, he will harm the country and the people; but if a politician is very conscience and pays attention to humanitarianism, he will easily lose power. I used to say that between "winning power by despicableness" and "losing power, but retaining your true heart", I would choose the latter. I admire those who gain power without consciously, like beasts, but I would not be that kind of person.
▲ Tens of thousands of refugees shouted "Germany! Germany!"
This time, because the imperfect refugee policy brought a series of problems, Merkel's public support rate dropped sharply. If she stepped down, what is the meaning of it? I think it is Merkel who has the "true conscience" as a politician, and also exposes weaknesses such as short-sightedness in human nature.
I often say that the main axis of history has never been "rational", but "irrational", such as "12.31 Sexual Assault Case in Cologne, Germany". A report from the UK mentioned that nighttime sexual harassment in Germany is the norm, which means that even if these refugees do not come, sexual assaults often occur in Germany.
Originally, the Germans thought it was very proud to host refugees. They applauded and welcomed those refugees at the train station. After something happened, they all blamed Merkel in turn. Because the person who caused the Cologne Cathedral incident was Syrian refugees, and they were refugees hosted by Merkel.
But imagine, Germany has hosted a total of 1 million people. Will 7 of them commit crimes? Will there be a psychopath? Will there be radicals? Of course there may be, but everyone will not think so. 7 The crime of a person commits can overthrow Merkel's achievements in hosting 1 million refugees. This is human nature, and history is written by such human nature.
▲ After the sexual assault case, people began to march and demonstrate on a large scale
When accepting refugees, Merkel said a sentence, saying that if Germany does not accept these refugees, the Muslims in China may feel that the humanity, freedom and respect that you white Westerners talk about are all for Christians and Catholics, and others are not regretful of death. What you call "humanitarianism" is only the way, no one, and this way is your religion.
With this mentality, a very gentle member of the Islamic sect is likely to gradually radicalize, which is a very big warning for Germany. Therefore, while Merkel tolerate these 1 million refugees, it also wants to tell the 4 million Muslims in China: This is really your country, you don’t have to be loyal to ISIS or join any al-Qaeda.
In addition, the aging problem in German society is very serious at present, so Merkel accepted these young people who came across the sea and received higher education to supplement the grassroots labor force for Germany.
What Merkel said requires time to prove it, but time never gives politicians the opportunity to prove their vision.
▲ Germany's 80 million people are Muslims
The European refugee wave has not ended yet. If Merkel stepped down, it will definitely have a domino effect. No politician will repeat her mistakes and take the initiative to shelter refugees. This approach is likely to fuel extreme nationalism and cruelty in Europe. The refugee issue will not end because you close your doors, because there are Muslims in every country in Europe. At that time, real terrorists may appear in your own country, causing comprehensive conflicts or other new problems.
is the second thing that is the euro crisis. In fact, for the whole world, all countries are tied together. Greece's current 10-year government bond yield is about 8% to 9%. As the leader, Tsipras refused to reform, so the country began to enter a dangerous state again and may need to ask for assistance from the outside again.
In the past, Merkel still had enough power to stabilize this issue. Now her political leadership has greatly reduced, and she has no ability to deal with the euro crisis. France is now unable to take care of itself. A far rightist who is stronger than the German AfD has emerged at home, and the entire campaign is in chaos. The two most important countries supporting the euro have problems with their own domestic politics. If Greece has another debt crisis, how should they face it?
▲ Hitler is a typical extreme nationalist
So, is Merkel considered a failed politician? We have seen many characters such as Churchill , Roosevelt , Bush family, etc. disappear into history. History is like the paper in my hand, turning pages slowly and ruthlessly. Many things in , from a long-term perspective, are different from the current situation. Now everyone thinks that her refugee policy is a failure, but what about 10 or 20 years later?
For example, few people know how Churchill stepped down. Because he refused to surrender during World War II, he mortgaged all his overseas assets to the United States and converted all his factories into military production chains to fight against the Nazis, and finally won the war. But after the war, Britain's fate also changed from the world's largest creditor country to the world's largest debtor country.
▲ Churchill: Ideal Leader and Tragic Hero
After the war ended, it would take at least one or two years for Britain to resume daily production, and it would also import a lot of food from the United States. Britain owed the United States so much money, so I hope the United States can help it. Unexpectedly, at that time, the United States was about to suppress the United Kingdom, so it took the opportunity to put forward several conditions. In addition to collecting a certain interest on loans, it also required that the United Kingdom cannot manipulate the pound exchange rate in the second year. So the pound fell sharply every other year and there was inflation.
Results Before the day of the negotiations were completed, Churchill was clamored to "take back the dignity of the British", and took the opportunity to seize power and was kicked out of the Prime Minister's Office.
Actually, I want to tell you that in the UK example, those who take advantage of the situation where the country is facing difficulties, or when a country leader does a visionary thing, are shameless politicians. he won, but he was shameless, and he will definitely pay the price for his shamelessness in the future.
▲Churchill, Truman, Stalin (from left to right)
Handshake between politicians is always greater than the real
And another example is Merkel's former Prime Minister Schroeder . The reason why Merkel was able to get on the throne was not because of what she did, but because of what Schroeder did.
At that time, the Berlin Wall collapsed and Germany was unified. However, because West Germany's original welfare policy was too good, and the legal retirement age in Germany at that time was too early, the average salary was too high, the working hours of workers were too short, and the ratio of pension to the original salary was too high, four major reasons led to the high debt of the entire country.
I heard that in 1998, two German political parties wrote checks everywhere due to elections. SPD proposed that "pension is 70% of the original salary", and all the rightists in oppose it, but the only difference between them and SPD is that the ratio of pension to salary is reduced to 61%. I want to say that I shouted at each other in this way, do I think this is an auction? If this continues, Germany will definitely collapse.
▲ is just a wall, which divides Germany into two worlds
Schroeder saw the problem in 2003, so he proposed the "2010 Agenda" and took a series of measures, such as extending the retirement age and extending working hours, but these also caused protests from workers.
I want to tell you that the consequences of "doing checks randomly" in the political field are very serious. Once social welfare is given, you will not come back. is like giving your child 10,000 yuan in pocket money every month. When you find that this will spoil him and want to take back his pocket money, the child will hate you and think that you don’t love him, so you must let the child be bitter first and then sweet. It’s not that your child is bad, because this is human nature.
Schroeder proposed this amazing policy, which gradually helped Germany get rid of all debts and become the strongest country in Europe, and is also an exception in today's European debt crisis. But in the 2005 election, Schroeder lost to Merkel. While she won power, she was also the moment when a great politician stepped down.
After leaving office, Schroeder had to pay three alimony because he had divorced three times. He cut his pension to a very low level during his tenure, and he became an ordinary old man with no money, walking with his dog all day long. But he had nothing to say, because this was the policy he stayed at that time, and the benefit of the whole Germans.
▲Germany can rise again, but fortunately, the long-term policy left by Schroeder
Now, I think Merkel's resignation is a very sad thing, because it once again tells me how unvisionist, selfish, xenophobic and irrational human nature is. So, as long as there are people, there will be hatred and war, because everyone thinks that their words make sense and have a sense of justice, but this is simply a joke.
In my opinion, those who make hateful voices in the world are clown . People have suffered in their lives after the recession, but no one told them how to solve it. So, a group of politicians took advantage of this pain like clowns, turned it into hatred, and then led the world to an increasingly irresolvable contradiction. There are quite a lot of intellectuals like this, and this is the tragedy of this world and this era.
Merkel may leave our sight forever in 2017 because she is too old and it will be difficult to make a comeback once she steps off. And her step down was like Churchill and Schroeder, because her approach was not completely wrong. She just wasn't cruel enough. did not say "I only accept Christians" like the Hungarian Prime Minister. If she had said this at the time, she might have survived.
So, are surviving politicians good? I think you can try to see what those surviving politicians look like. If they are also unscrupulous, despise them.
- END -
