Each editor: Li Zedong
According to CCTV News, on the afternoon of the 20th local time, according to Kyodo News and other media reports, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda held talks at the Prime Minister’s Official Residence and discussed the matter. We exchanged views on recent foreign exchange market trends and other issues. After the meeting, Fumio Kishida said that they mentioned that the sharp depreciation of the yen was a worrying issue during the meeting.
Picture source: CCTV News screenshot
Kuroda Haruhiko also said that the sharp depreciation of the yen has brought various uncertainties to the business plans of Japanese companies, and he does not want this situation to continue. He said he would pay attention to the trends in the foreign exchange market and cooperate with the government to respond.
It is understood that the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has been declining recently. At the beginning of last week, the exchange rate of the yen against the US dollar fell to 135.58 yen per US dollar, a new low in the past 24 years . As of press time, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar was 135.3 yen per U.S. dollar.
Image source: Yingwei Finance
Japanese economist: The conflicting monetary policies of the United States and Japan triggered the depreciation of the yen
According to CCTV News, on June 15, local time, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board announced an interest rate hike of 375 basis points. To curb inflation from surging again. This is also the largest rate hike by the Federal Reserve since 1994.
It is understood that in March this year, the Federal Reserve raised the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from a level close to zero, starting a tightening cycle to curb inflation. In early May, the Federal Reserve announced another 50 basis points interest rate hike.
Japanese experts said that the United States has raised interest rates at an unprecedented rate this year, and a large amount of funds flowing into the international market have returned to the United States; while Japan continues to maintain a super loose monetary policy , resulting in a large amount of buying of US dollars and selling of yen in the foreign exchange market, which is triggering One of the main reasons for the current depreciation of the yen.
Picture source: CCTV news screenshot
Hideo Kumano, chief economist of Japan's Dai-ichi Life Economic Research Institute: In March this year, the United States suddenly raised interest rates, and at an unprecedented speed. A large amount of funds flowing into the international market returned to the United States. As a result, Global inflation.
(depreciation of the yen) also has Japan's own reasons. The United States and Europe have begun financial tightening policies, and only Japan continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. has caused the foreign exchange market to buy a large amount of dollars and sell yen, causing the yen to depreciate.
The rapid depreciation of the yen puts greater pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises.
Hideo Kumano believes that the rapid depreciation of the yen may prevent Japanese companies from responding in time, and among them, small and medium-sized enterprises are facing a greater impact.
Kumano Hideo: For Japanese small and medium-sized enterprises, which mainly focus on domestic business, import prices have increased, profits have decreased, and even deficits have occurred. It can be said that most small and medium-sized enterprises are more affected by the depreciation of the yen than large companies.
Picture source: CCTV news screenshot
Kumano Hideo believes that the depreciation of the yen also has structural reasons for the economy to be highly dependent on imports. As the price of international commodity continues to rise, Japan's import volume continues to rise.
Data released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance on the 16th showed that Japan’s import volume increased by 48.9% year-on-year in May, setting a new high for three consecutive months.
In May, Japan's trade deficit hit its second highest level since comparable data were available in 1979, marking the 10th consecutive month of trade deficit.
The yen has depreciated beyond expectations. Government control is very important.
It is understood that Kumano Hideo has been engaged in professional economic analysis work for 20 years. Regarding this rare rapid depreciation of the yen, he predicted that due to the different financial and monetary policy directions of Japan and the United States, the interest rate gap may further widen and the yen may continue to depreciate.
Image source: CCTV news screenshot
Hideo Kumano, chief economist of Japan's Dai-ichi Life Economic Research Institute: It is obvious that the rate of depreciation of the yen exceeds the impact of the increase in U.S. interest rates. If the market loses confidence in the yen, the yen will further Depreciation, an unexpected depreciation. I think the current depreciation of the yen may have exceeded a reasonable range, and the control of the Japanese government and the central bank is very important.
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