We have discussed many signals that the stock market bottomed out before, such as valuation, equity risk premium , inventory, credit cycle, etc.
has a bottom-down signal that has never been mentioned before. This signal not only indicates that the possibility of A shares of reversal is greatly improved, but it can even guide us to switch timing in investment.
1. What is so effective?
We all know that fund is divided into stock fund , equity-oriented mixed funds, debt-oriented mixed funds, and pure bond funds.
Many people may only care about the first two, and most people are not interested in debt. Of course, this may also be one of the important reasons for most people's losses. Because I only think about attacking, never defense.
Speaking of which, bond-biased mixed funds are funds with higher proportion of bonds, and this proportion is usually 70% to 90%. The share of stocks will not be higher than 30%.
In other words, it is an asset allocation that switches between 1:9 and 3:7 in the equity-to-bond ratio.
Don’t underestimate this kind of fund. If you look at it for a long time, its yield is not low, and the feeling of holding is definitely better than holding the index alone. Because it fluctuates much smaller.
I often say that although some assets have a huge increase in , in fact, few people really make money on it. Often, the more volatility the assets, the more people lose money, and the more they lose.
The bottom-up signal I want to talk about today is related to this debt-biased mixed fund.
2. When the bond-biased mixed fund index is intimately in contact with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300...
As mentioned above, holding a bond-biased fund is much better than always holding an index. Please take a closer look at the picture below.
From the figure, you can see that if you keep holding the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, it will be very exciting and will double at any time, but at the same time, it will suddenly plummet by more than half.
If you hold the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 alone, you may be forced into a crazy person. It's like giving you a lot of stimulants and beating you up again. Can you not be crazy if you continue for a long time?
. If we connect the low points of CSI 300 each time, we will be surprised to find, huh? Why do you happen to touch the debt-biased fund index every time you bottom out? Is
very magical? Why is it such a coincidence?
Will you think: Why not always hold a debt-biased fund? At least your heart will be healthier! Playing stocks until the end, you may make more money, but your body is also emptied!
3. Why does the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 always have to kiss the debt-biased fund index?
The principle is not complicated. If you understand asset allocation, you will know that according to the equity-to-debt ratio of debt-to-debt funds, its long-term annualized returns are around 7% to 8%.
The long-term annualized yield of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 itself should have been around 10%, but since the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has been digesting the valuation of two major stock market crashes in the past decade, the profit has been discounted. Then the long-term annualized rate of return will be reduced to about 8%.
So every bear market bottom, it will have close contact with the two sessions. But usually, they just need to break up after a touch, just like the Cowherd and Weaver Girl appointment once a year.
It is worth mentioning that this rule may be broken in the future. If the valuation of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 begins to gradually align with the international market (this is a trend), the long-term annualized return rate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 will return to around 10%.
and future interest rate cuts are a big trend, and even in 10 years, we may also have 0 interest rates. Then there will be very few bond returns, and the yields of bond-biased mixed funds and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 will gradually be widened!
But no matter what, at least this rule still applies now. Since both of them are intimate now, don’t be too pessimistic. You should know that they usually don’t linger for too long. Once
is separated, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 will quickly distance itself from the debt-biased mixed fund index.
4. Summary: What inspiration will be given to us?
First of all, if you are a conservative investor, it is no problem to choose 3-5 debt-biased mixed funds and obtain a long-term 7%-8% return.
But you should also pay attention that in extreme cases, it will also retreat by more than 15%, so you must be mentally prepared.
Secondly, compare the debt-biased fund index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 to determine the market bottom.
Now the bond-biased fund index is now under the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 again, and it is more under the downward trend than in April. Then the stock market reversal may not be far away, but we just don’t know the specific turning point.
Third, understanding debt-biased mixed funds is essentially understanding the equity-debt ratio in asset allocation.
When we are investing, we actually use different configuration ratios under different market conditions, and then just lie down and stay still. Only by deeply understanding the connotation can you understand why investment masters like Buffett can hold stakes in for a long time.
Because he knows how to adjust the ratio of stocks and cash (Buffett doesn't use bonds very much) under different market conditions, and then he can make money by lying down.
. If you can’t stay idle and always want to move around, the stock market will definitely teach you how to be a human being!
Of course, if we know how to adjust the stock-to-debt ratio ourselves, there is no need to hold debt-to-debt funds. For example, now is definitely the time to increase stock assets. Regardless of whether it will fall in the short term or not, in the long term, it is highly likely that this will be correct.
voluntary reward, 1 cent is silently supported, haha!
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