Today, most commodities turned red, and the Shanghai Composite Index returned above 2900 points and closed up 2.62%. Market sentiment seems to have recovered, and the black varieties basically recovered yesterday's decline, and the double-focus market rebounded from a low in the

Today, commodity most turned red, Shanghai Composite Index returned above 2900 points and closed up 2.62%. Market sentiment seems to have recovered, and the black varieties basically recovered yesterday's decline, and the double-focus market rebounded from a low in the past two months. Is commodities stable?

Hello everyone, I am Kankan, a hardworking and serious analyst. is now on the afternoon of November 1, Beijing time. After yesterday's plunge, many people believe that the downward trend has been completely opened and a big bear market is inevitable. Especially yesterday's glass plummeted so much that it was scary. For the sake of safety, I could only bear the pain and cut half of my losses. However, there have been some rebounds today. Did the rate hike of on Thursday have not affected ?

Let me first talk about the conclusion: the impact of interest rate hikes still exists, and it will only be considered stable if tomorrow passes. Next, let’s briefly analyze the future trend of related varieties:

1. Steel prices rebounded heavily

Today, after a continuous sharp drop, market sentiment rebounded, black chain stopped falling and stabilized, rebar futures closed up 1.28% to 3485 yuan/ton, and hot coil closed up 1.69% at 3553 yuan/ton. The spot stock of Zhangjiagang hot coils was raised by 50 yuan to 3,650 yuan/ton, and the price of seismic threads in Shanghai rose slightly by 10 yuan to 3,610 yuan/ton. At present, steel is still at the end of the traditional peak demand season, and funds are tight at the end of the month, and the rush to work has not improved significantly, terminal demand has been limited, and overall transactions continue to be sluggish.

In addition, steel mills suffered large losses, and the negative feedback of finished raw materials strengthened. In addition, the market risk preference declined, and the decline in steel futures and spot prices continued to expand. Macroeconomic factors also frequently affect market sentiment fluctuations. In addition to the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the purchasing managers' index fell in October due to factors such as frequent and escalating epidemics in the country. The price of billets that fell first and then rose on the weekend fell by 60 yuan, and continued to drop by 40 yuan yesterday. Although it rebounded by 20 yuan/ton this morning, the rebound pressure is still relatively large.

2. The epidemic affects real estate, and glass has rebounded harshly. It should be noted that the demand for real estate stock is still dragged down by tight funds; the year-on-year growth rate of newly started construction area in September continued to maintain the lowest level in history, curbing the subsequent growth of real estate demand. Therefore, some institutions believe that steel mills face the severe situation of profit , coupled with the poor intention of traders in winter storage, and the expectation of steel mills to increase their efforts to reduce production in the later stage is strong, and the negative feedback decline of finished furnace materials is still continuing, and the black series rebound space is relatively limited.

As for glass, the rebound strength of double-focus and soda ash today is considered to be decent, but the glass still failed to turn red. Many people asked me today if the glass hit the bottom, and I said I couldn’t be sure yet, why? Yesterday, the entire line fell, glass fell the most, and it was obvious that there was capital smashing the market; and today most rebounded, glass was the only green one, so it is not certain whether the funds will have another wave tomorrow.

From the fundamentals of , the current price of glass will definitely rebound, but yesterday's helpless reduction is also to prevent the uncontrollable risk of continuing to smash the market. The current epidemic has a great impact on real estate, and glass rebounds still need to wait for opportunities, so I summarize the future trend like this:

3. Talk about the point of view: If it can stabilize tomorrow, the interest rate hike will rebound

As mentioned in yesterday, the sharp drop from mid-October was mainly due to the wildfires of the epidemic. In the late month, coupled with the radical expectations of interest rate hikes in November, capital continued to sell and formed a continuous sharp drop. The market sentiment is very poor, but on the market, it can be said that it has been fully released. If investors' pessimism can stabilize after today's counterattack and there will be no capital to smash the market tomorrow, the market will probably be stable.

rate hike is negative, but it has been digested. So when the interest rate hike is implemented or before it is implemented, the rebound will begin. The key now is whether the main short sellers in glass will make another wave tomorrow. After all, many retail investors are looking at 1200 and 1100. If they make another follower, there will definitely be many people.

So I think the key point of glass is tomorrow. If the main force does not smash it and continues to follow , the market rebounds, you can decisively increase your positions tomorrow night and wait for the interest rate hike to rebound and eat meat; if the sudden drop is again tomorrow, you must consider waiting for the interest rate hike to stabilize and then buy at the bottom of .The same is true for the black series, and the rebound will be restored in the short term.

OK. The above is a sharing today. My personal opinions are for reference only. Creation is not easy and continuous output is even more difficult. After reading it, please like it and support it~ See you tomorrow.