In the past week, as weak economic outlook dragged down oil demand, crude oil price fell at the beginning of the week, but with the release of the inventory report, crude oil prices gradually rose and closed higher for the second consecutive week, WTI recorded $87.9 per barrel, while Brent crude oil recorded $95.77, both hitting new highs in the past two weeks.
Domestic oil prices nearly completed half of the statistical cycle last week. The corresponding adjustment amount fell first and then rose. The only decline of 50 yuan/ton was offset. As of last Friday, the adjustment amount was up 100 yuan/ton, because the increase of exceeded the starting line, the expectation of this oil price adjustment is temporarily raised, and the specific price adjustment time is November 7. The oil price adjustment recently completed by
was on October 24, with the retail price of gasoline and diesel per ton increased by 185 and 175 yuan respectively, and the retail price of gasoline and diesel per liter by 0.14, 0.15 and 0.15 yuan per liter by
. After the increase, the average price of gasoline and diesel of these three labels reached 8.4, 8.96 and 8.02 yuan/liter, respectively, up 1.19-1.26 yuan/liter compared with the beginning of the year, but compared with the peak in June, it fell by 0.94-1.02 yuan/liter.
As of today, oil prices have 4 left to adjust prices this year. At present, it seems that it is almost inevitable that oil prices will increase this year.
EU and UK Purchasing Managers Index both fell last month, indicating that its economy was weak. In addition, it is expected that ECB and Bank of England will continue hikes in , which may lead to further suppression of its economic growth.
Last week's EIA oil inventories report showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 440 million barrels, 2% lower than normal levels in the same period in previous years, with API reporting an increase of 4.5 million barrels, while WSJ analysts predict an increase of 600,000 barrels.
refinery utilization rate dropped to 88.9%, compared with 89.5% the previous week, total gasoline inventory decreased by 1.5 million barrels to 208 million barrels, currently 6% lower than the average, distillate oil increased by 17,000 barrels to 106 million barrels, maintaining a 20% lower than normal level. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 2.6 million barrels to 27 million barrels, accounting for 35% of production capacity, released from strategic oil reserves at 3.4 million barrels, and total inventories fell to 402 million barrels. The market attributed this to the main reason for the rise in commercial oil inventories. U.S. oil production stabilized at 12 million barrels/day, compared with 11.3 million barrels/day in the same period last year.
US dollar index showed a downward trend last week, which has a certain driving effect on crude oil prices, because the growth rate of GDP in the third quarter was 2.6%, reversing the decline in the first two quarters, but U.S. inflation remains high, which may lead to further hikes in the Federal Reserve and intensify the slowdown in US economic growth, which will drag down oil demand.
The International Energy Agency expects global fossil fuel demand to peak sometime in a decade as governments meet their low-carbon goals.
Overall, the international crude oil price trend basically fluctuated in the range last week, as the market digested the upcoming Russian sanctions, the slowdown in the release of US reserves, the 2023 inflation expectations , and the increased demand risk caused by recession pressure, and was also affected by rising freight costs and growth in US production.
