01, production cuts begin
According to the resolution of the OPEC meeting in early October, all oil-producing countries will enter a full-scale production cut starting from November 1.
Today, we see that Brent crude oil price is still rising, currently at $95 per barrel.
As can be seen from the above figure, in the week and a half since October 10, Brent crude oil prices fell sharply, and by the lowest intraday on October 18, it was only $88.77.
Starting from October 19, although the price of crude oil fluctuates, the overall trend continues to rise, which shows that the production cuts of oil-producing countries have set a strong support for oil prices.
Even in these few days, the Federal Reserve once again raised interest rates by . The US dollar further strengthened, and oil prices are still rising.
Oil-producing countries maintain oil prices through production adjustments, while the United States suppresses oil prices through continuous interest rate hikes. The struggle between the two sides is still continuing.
02, demand increases
OPEC latest report uplifts oil demand forecasts in the next few decades. The report
predicts that world demand for oil will peak and tend to stabilize by 2035, and before that, oil demand will continue to increase.
According to OPEC, the global population will increase significantly in the next few years, of which 96% are from developing countries . With the development of population and economy, oil demand in the next few years will also be stronger than expected.
From the report, we can also see that OPEC believes that the focus market for future crude oil supply is in emerging markets, not developed countries, because the resistance to population growth lies in developing countries.
, and developed countries are likely to continue to narrow the demand for traditional personnel in the future.
03
Recently, the United States has introduced a brand new agreement, and the participating countries are the UAE of Middle East .
Through this protocol, it will increase investment up to $100 billion to promote energy transformation and develop and deploy clean energy more.
Biden has been focusing on promoting clean energy, and has previously pushed the United States to pass relevant bills to make more investments in clean energy in the future.
It is precisely because of this that many traditional oil companies dare not increase their investment because they are not very sure what the future prospects of traditional energy are. If traditional oil companies do not increase investment, they will not be able to increase supply, which is also the reason why the US oil prices cannot fall to Biden's expected price.
Biden accused energy companies of being unwilling to increase production, while energy giants accused the Biden administration of not providing sufficient policy support.
The UAE itself is the third largest oil-producing country among OPEC members, and ahead of him are Saudi and Iraq .
But the UAE is outside traditional crude oil. A lot of money has been invested in the development of clean energy, and it seems that even the domestic oil production has begun to diverge.
04
International Energy Agency believes that if you want to solve the problem of global warming , you must reduce or even stop investment in fossil fuels such as oil, coal, natural gas and other fossil fuels.
However, OPEC believes that there is no need to "demonize" the traditional energy of oil.
Because oil is in a long-term insufficient investment, world energy security may still face serious crises.
The International Energy Agency is optimistic that the world is gradually turning to green energy. But OPEC believes that crude oil will still be a necessary energy source in the next few decades.
However, although OPEC believes that oil demand will continue to increase in the future, it is unwilling to make any decision to increase production now, and it is not ruled out that further cuts will be made in the December meeting.
The game between the United States and oil-producing countries is still continuing on how to guide the future trend of oil prices.
