Reporter of the Economic Business: Huang Xinxu Li Xing Editor of the Economic Business Business: Pei Jianru
During the "Golden September" season, the popularity of new energy vehicle terminals has not diminished, and both production and sales have exceeded the 700,000 vehicle mark, setting a record high.
Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that in September, my country's production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 755,000 and 708,000 respectively. increased by 31.1 times and 93.9% year-on-year, with a market share of 27.1%. In the first nine months of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 4.717 million and 4.567 million respectively, an increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times year-on-year respectively, and the market penetration rate of has reached 27.1%. China Automobile Manufacturers Association Deputy Secretary-General Chen Shihua believes that in the next few months, my country's new energy vehicles will still maintain a good development momentum.
In addition to China, the new energy vehicle markets such as Europe also maintain an upward pace. In September, the sales of new energy vehicles in the seven European countries all increased by more than 20% month-on-month.
However, the performance of new energy vehicle concept stock in the capital market in September was not at the same frequency as the terminal, and the overall new energy vehicle sectors of US stock , A stock and H stocks suffered a pullback. Among them, the market value of Tesla (TSLA, stock price of US$207.28, market value of US$649.5 billion) decreased by US$32.46 billion; the market value of BYD (002594.SZ, stock price of RMB263.51, market value of RMB767.1 billion) decreased by RMB104.714 billion; the market value of NIO-SW (9866.HK, stock price of HK$84.4, market value of HK$142.8 billion) decreased by RMB50.106 billion.
Despite this, all parties still maintain active predictions about the new energy vehicle market. An industry insider told the reporter of " Daily Economic News ": "We predict that the ratio of new energy vehicles to fuel vehicles will reach 1:1 around 2030." Guotai Junan also released a research report saying that the peak season of domestic new energy vehicle sales in September began as scheduled, the European market overall rebounded, and the US market fell slightly month-on-month. my country's new energy vehicle sales are expected to exceed 6.5 million in 2022, while global new energy vehicle sales are expected to exceed 10 million.
Independent new energy passenger car penetration rate approaches 50%
Passenger Car Association data shows that in September, domestic new energy passenger car manufacturers wholesale sales reached 675,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 29.4%, an increase of 9.5 percentage points from the 19.9% penetration rate in the same period last year. Among them, the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles is 47.9%; the penetration rate of luxury brand new energy vehicles is 29.1%; while the penetration rate of mainstream joint venture brand new energy vehicles is only 3.9%.
In the same month, the wholesale sales of domestic new energy passenger car manufacturers exceeded 10,000 vehicles, of which 12 were independent brand car companies.
Tabulation: Reporter Li Xing
From the above picture, it can be seen that in September, the domestic new energy passenger car market still maintained a situation of "one super, many strong". BYD, which ranked first in sales, sold more than 200,000 vehicles in September, nearly 2.5 times the second-place Tesla China sales, followed by SAIC-GM-Wuling , with sales of about 52,400 new energy vehicles.
htmlIn September, among the new domestic car-making forces, there were four companies with sales of over 10,000 vehicles, namely Nezha Auto, Ideal Auto, Leapmotor and NIO . Among them, the sales of Nezha Auto ranked first among the new car-making forces in that month; Ideal Auto followed Nezha Auto and returned to the top three in September. The delivery volume of Xiaopeng Motors in "Wei Xiaoli" was only 8,468 vehicles in September, continuing to decline month-on-month. In response, Xiaopeng Motors stated that the company's cumulative sales in the first nine months of this year have exceeded the annual delivery volume in 2021, about 99,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 75%."At present, the demand for new energy vehicles in the market is strong, the production capacity of leading manufacturers has increased, and the delivery cycle has been shortened. National subsidies and local license policies are approaching, promoting the early purchase of new energy vehicles and providing strong support for the overall auto market." Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, believes.
Image source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
Based on the good development trend of new energy vehicles in my country, the China Passenger Car Association predicts that domestic new energy vehicle sales will reach 6.4 million to 6.5 million in 2022. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers has maintained its forecast of 5.5 million domestic new energy vehicle sales throughout the year.
exports of new energy vehicles have increased by more than 1 times, and the number of power batteries installed continues to increase
Since entering 2022, my country's automobile exports have shown a rapid growth trend, and in August and September this year, it has continuously exceeded 300,000 vehicles, reaching 308,000 and 301,000 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 65% and 73.9% year-on-year respectively. Among them, new energy vehicles are increasingly becoming the main export force. In September, my country exported 50,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of more than 1 times year-on-year, accounting for nearly 16.61% of the total export volume.
"Overseas export of my country's independent brands has entered a new stage. This is also an opportunity period for the development of new energy vehicles in my country. The export of independent brands mainly based on new energy vehicles has undergone tremendous changes in the export of fuel vehicles." Cui Dongshu said.
Data from the China Passenger Association showed that in September, my country exported 44,000 new energy passenger cars, accounting for about 17.6% of the total export volume (including complete vehicles and CKD). Among them, SAIC passenger cars exported about 15,500, BYD exported 7,736, Tesla exported 5,522, SAIC-GM-Wuling exported 4,123, and , Geely Auto exported 2,364.
watchmaking: Reporter Li Xing
In addition to this, new energy vehicles under auto companies such as Shenlong Auto , Dongfeng Xiaokang , Skyworth Auto, Great Wall Motor , Aizhi Auto , JAC Motors and other new energy vehicles have performed well in overseas markets. At the same time, the export strategy of new forces represented by NIO has also gradually started.
"With the support of the policy of resumption of work and production under the epidemic, my country's new energy vehicles are developing rapidly, and more and more independent brand new energy vehicles are going abroad. With the continuous improvement of recognition overseas and the improvement of service network, the market prospects continue to improve." Cui Dongshu said.
While new energy vehicles are singing all the way, the number of power batteries installed in the upstream of the industrial chain is also maintaining high growth. Data from the China Automobile Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that in September, the total installed capacity of power batteries in my country was 31.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 101.6% and a month-on-month increase of 14%.
Specifically, a total of 36 power battery companies have achieved vehicle loading supporting facilities. The top three power battery companies have installed power batteries at 24.2GWh, accounting for 76.4% of the total installed vehicle volume; the top five companies have installed power batteries at 26.5GWh, accounting for 83.7% of the total installed vehicle volume; the top ten companies have installed power batteries at 29.9GWh, accounting for 94.6% of the total installed vehicle volume.
Tabulation: Reporter Li Xing
From the above picture, we can see that in September, the top three companies in my country's power battery installation volume were still CATL , BYD and China Innovation Airlines.
On the evening of October 21, CATL (SZ300750, stock price 413 yuan, market value 1.01 trillion yuan) released the third quarter performance report, showing that in the first three quarters of this year, the company achieved revenue of 210.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186.72%; net profit of 17.592 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.95%.
Guosen Securities research report believes that CATL, yiwei Lithium Energy , Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other companies have their own lithium salt projects, which are expected to support their profitability to remain stable.
European and American new energy vehicle markets resonate with the same frequency
Public data shows that in September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the eight European countries (UK, France, Sweden , Norway, Italy, Spain, Finland , Portugal) reached 22%. Judging from the sales ranking of new energy passenger cars in Europe in September, Germany ranked first and its sales also hit a record high. Public data shows that in September, Germany sold about 44,400 pure electric vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 33%; plug-in hybrid vehicle sold about 28,300, a year-on-year increase of 25%.
Tabulation: Reporter of Meike Li Xing
The sharp increase in sales of German new energy vehicles is directly related to the increase in sales of Tesla in the local area. It is reported that in the third quarter of this year, of the 21,000 new pure electric vehicles added by Germany, 16,000 were supplied by Tesla.
In September this year, the production of Tesla Berlin Super Factory has increased significantly. In addition, the shipments of Shanghai Super Factory have increased, making Tesla Model Y the best-selling electric car in Germany. Data released by the German Automobile Administration (KBA) showed that in September, Tesla Model Y sold 9,846 units, becoming the sales champion of pure electric models that month.
In the UK market, the sales of new energy vehicles ranked second in the European market in that month. Although the UK's subsidies for new energy vehicles have been zeroed, local new energy vehicles still handed over a sales report card of 50,400 vehicles in September. In terms of segmentation, in September, the sales of pure electric vehicles in the UK were about 38,100, and the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were about 12,300.
Huabao Securities believes that after entering the traditional peak season, new energy vehicles in the European market performed strongly in September, giving the market a shot of a booster. It is optimistic that the continued impact of volume at the end of the year will maintain a high prosperity in the fourth quarter.
West China Securities Industry also stated in its research report that as various automakers continue to make efforts to launch the supply of high-quality models, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe is expected to further increase.
"It is expected that Europe will achieve sales of 2.3 million new energy vehicles in 2022." Huabao Securities said that, however, the bottleneck line of the 30% penetration rate of new energy vehicles in mainstream economies in Europe and the expiration of new energy vehicle subsidies from Germany and other places in 2023 will still be important factors restricting the continued rapid growth of medium- and long-term sales in Europe.
In the US market, Industrial and financial report data showed that from January to September, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 720,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 66%. Among them, the sales of new energy vehicles in the United States in September were 80,000, a year-on-year increase of 44%, a month-on-month decrease of 3%, and the penetration rate stabilized at 7.2% month-on-month.
As the main brand in the US market, Tesla's sales in September were about 45,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 39.6% and a month-on-month increase of 4.1%, and its market share rebounded to 55.6%. Other brands such as Ford (5770 units), General (5002 units) still have a big gap with Tesla. "With the implementation of subsidies for new energy vehicles in the US market, Tesla's market demand will further stabilize." Industrial Securities believes.
Recently, the US "2022 Inflation Reduction Act " was officially passed, adding the provisions of "second-hand electric vehicles can be credited to US$4,000 in taxes" and "new electric vehicles can be credited to US$7,500 in taxes", and canceling the credit limit of 200,000 in car companies. Industrial Securities predicts that with the implementation of preferential policies in the near future, the trend of electrification of automobiles in the United States has been determined, and new models have been launched one after another, and the annual sales forecast has been adjusted to 1.05 million vehicles.
New energy sector pulls back significantly
9 September, new energy vehicle concept stock overall performed sluggish.
International new energy vehicle concept stocks continued the downward trend in August. In addition to Tesla, the market value of Ford Auto (F, stock price of US$12.13, market value of US$48.77 billion) and General Motors (GM, stock price of US$33.63, market value of US$49.03 billion) fell by 26.49% and 16.01% month-on-month respectively. Some people believe that it is rare for Tesla, General Motors and Ford to sell to fall , because investors believe that under the expectations of a recession, auto stocks need to be repriced.
In late September, Federal Reserve hiked interest rates again
75 basis points. After the Fed sent the clearest signal so far, expressing its willingness to trade the cost of the U.S. recession in exchange for inflation being controlled, central banks such as the UK, Norway and Swiss also raised interest rates. Against the backdrop of global central banks competing to raise interest rates, concerns about the recession are becoming increasingly strong, and the wave of selling in the financial markets swept the world.Tabulation: Reporter Huang Xinxu
A-share market , the stock prices of domestic vehicle companies continued to fall. BYD, Great Wall Motors (601633.SH, stock price 26.46 yuan, market value 242.4 billion yuan), GAC Group (601238.SH, stock price 12.3 yuan, market value 128.7 billion yuan), Changan Automobile (000625.SZ, stock price 12.35 yuan, market value 122.5 billion yuan), Cialis (601127.SH, stock price 52.26 yuan, market value 78.25 billion yuan), etc., all decreased by more than 10% month-on-month in September.
Some people say that A-shares have continued to decline recently, and the main pressure comes from overseas. Judging from the Fed's statement, the pressure on interest rate hikes in the future is still relatively large. In addition, there are signs of escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the global capital market generally weakens, posing a certain risk transmission to A-shares. The performance of
H stock market is also relatively sluggish.The market value of , including NIO-SW, Ideal Auto-W (2015.HK, stock price of HK$67.7, market value of HK$141.1 billion), Geely Auto (0175.HK, stock price of HK$9.38, market value of HK$94.33 billion), Xiaopeng Auto-W (9868.HK, stock price of HK$31.35, market value of HK$54.04 billion), etc., all fell by more than 10%.
Tabulation: Reporter Huang Xinxu
In September, stocks related to the new energy vehicle industry chain fell overall due to factors such as the rise in prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate and aluminum. CATL (300750.SZ, stock price 413 yuan, market value of 1.01 trillion yuan) fell 17% month-on-month to 978.36 billion yuan; Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ, stock price 92.59 yuan, market value of 152 billion yuan) fell 12.11% in September.
Tabulation: Reporter Huang Xinxu
Guohai Securities Research report stated that in the past three years, more and more companies with long-term high-quality growth potential have emerged in the domestic new energy industry chain. These companies have large capital expenditures, sufficient technical reserves, increasingly competitive competitiveness, and their market share have continued to increase in recent years. They are expected to achieve a faster compound growth rate in the next few years. However, investors still need to analyze specific individual stocks, because the stock prices of some stocks in the new energy industry chain have overdrawn their future performance to a certain extent and do not currently have valuation advantages.
" Fighting the Beach " European market
"Going overseas" is a high-frequency word in the field of new energy vehicles recently.
At the 2022 Paris Auto Show held on October 18, more and more new energy vehicles in China have begun to unveil. BYD has brought core products such as Han, Tang, Seal, ATTO 3 (yuan PLUS), while Great Wall Motors has brought new cars such as Ora Good Cat, Lightning Cat, WEY Pai Coffee 01 (Mocha PHEV), and models such as C11 and T03, a new car manufacturing force in Leapmotor, have also made high-profile appearances. According to incomplete statistics, a total of 14 models of independent brands have appeared at the Paris Auto Show.
In fact, before the Paris Auto Show, domestic new energy vehicle companies' overseas layout has been increasing recently. On September 28, BYD held an online European press conference on new energy passenger cars; on October 3, BYD announced that it had signed a cooperation agreement with car rental company SIXT to provide new energy vehicle rental services for the European market; on October 7, NIO announced that it would begin to provide services in the four markets of Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden.
In the past, my country's automobile market went overseas was mainly concentrated in Africa, Southeast Asia and other places. In recent years, my country's new energy vehicles have ushered in development opportunities in the European market. At present, Europe has become the world's second largest new energy vehicle market. According to data from industry agency Aixin Huamai, the global sales of new energy passenger cars in the first eight months of this year were 7.83 million, of which the European market share was 27.2%.
Image source: Sun Tongtong, reporter of Meike (data photo)
"With the advancement of independent brand new energy vehicle technology, new car companies in China's independent brand are entering the European market in a high-profile manner. BYD and other companies have also increased the expansion of overseas markets such as Japan, fully leveraging the advantages of China's electric vehicles' industrial chain, achieving the improvement of stable export prices and high quality, which is conducive to expanding the market scale and driving the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry." The China Passenger Car Association said.
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