Before the festival, the market hype sentiment was sluggish, and only strong logical events stimulated can accommodate some active funds to bring local hype. There is a large consumer sector segment that is far stronger than the market. This sector has the attributes of home appliances and new energy vehicles in A-share , and is also the protagonist we are going to explore today - heat pump. On the news, Bloomberg reported on September 23 that in the context of the European energy crisis, the EU will formulate a "digitalization of energy systems" plan: requiring the EU to invest 565 billion euros (about 3.93 trillion yuan) in infrastructure by 2030 to realize its green plan and end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. The document contains these two contents: it plans to install 10 million heat pumps in the next five years; and by the end of 2030, 30 million zero-emission vehicles will be on the road. This also once again clarifies the long-term logic of investment in this segment.
In the A-share market, many companies mainly belong to the home appliance industry. Due to the interconnection of underlying technologies between automotive parts and home appliance parts, they have also seized the opportunity to enter and lay out the high-prosperity new energy track in this wave of new energy, injecting new growth momentum into the future development of the home appliance industry.
01 The new energy track is booming, and industrial policies continue to support
Affected by multiple factors such as national industrial policies, environmental protection policies become stricter, and major technologies in the industry continue to break through, my country's new energy vehicle industry continues to develop rapidly. According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, China's new energy vehicle retail sales from January to July 2022 reached 2.7333 million vehicles, an increase of 121.5% year-on-year, with a impressive growth rate; the penetration rate of reached 24.7%, an increase of 13.9% year-on-year, achieving a significant increase. According to the forecast of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 5.5 million vehicles in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 56%+. All the impressive data are verifying the high prosperity of the new energy track.
Taking my country as an example, it has been introducing relevant industrial policies for many years, promoting the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry through exemption from purchase tax and issuance of subsidies. In July this year, the Ministry of Commerce and others also issued the "Notice on Several Measures to Revitalize Automobile Distribution and Expand Automobile Consumption", proposing 12 measures to support the purchase and use of new energy vehicles, accelerate the activation of the second-hand car market, and promote automobile renewal consumption. From this point of view, China's support for the new energy vehicle industry will remain at a high level in the future, and the domestic new energy vehicle industry is expected to enjoy relevant policy dividends in the long run. The strong downstream demand of
is expected to drive the rapid increase in the market size of new energy vehicle parts. According to China Business Network data, the market size of new energy vehicle parts in 2021 reached 287 billion yuan, an increase of 53.07% year-on-year, and rapid development; related companies are expected to develop rapidly in the growth period.
02 Home appliance cost side price has declined significantly Profitability of overseas business
As of mid-September, the price of stainless steel plate (cold rolled 304/2B) was 15,820 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 12.79%, and a month-on-month increase of 4.38%, and a month-on-month increase of LME copper price was US$7,792/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 17.04%, and a month-on-month decrease of 2.42%; the price of LME aluminum was US$2,259/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 21.26%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.92%; the price of WTI crude oil was US$85.11/barrel, a year-on-year increase of 17.22%, and a month-on-month decrease of 1.94%; the price index of China Plastic City was 894.83, a year-on-year decrease of 1.94%; the price index of China Plastic City was 894.83, a year-on-year decrease of 16.14%, up 0.57% month-on-month.
In addition to the continuous decline in raw material prices, the recent changes in exchange rate are also beneficial to relevant domestic export companies. Data from the Household Appliances Association shows that since 2022, the export volume of most home appliances in China to Europe has been declining, and the growth categories mainly include air conditioners, electric water heaters, electric heaters, electric blankets, and hair dryers. The cumulative export volume from January to July was US$1.99 billion, US$130 million, US$490 million, US$33.4 million and US$160 million, respectively. Among them, the growth of air source heat pump was very impressive, with the export volume of heat pumps from January to July reaching 4.406 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.43%.
Specifically, China is the largest importer of air source heat pumps in Europe, accounting for as high as 60%.In the first half of the year, demand in many European countries showed explosive growth, and my country's heat pump exports to Bulgaria , Poland , Italy and Spain increased by as high as 614%, 373%, 198%, and 71%, respectively.
03 European energy plan is to be implemented to demonstrate the determination to transform into new energy
The article first mentioned the recently promulgated energy plan in Europe. In addition, the EU Parliament passed the "Renewable Energy Development Act", which will increase the proportion of renewable energy to 45% by 2030, reduce carbon emissions by 55%, and increase the proportion of renewable energy in building energy consumption to no less than 49%.
In the energy crisis caused by geopolitical conflicts, Europe will accelerate the comprehensive transformation of renewable energy development, and the passage of the bill once again demonstrates Europe's determination to transform into new energy. Powered by renewable energy, nearly zero emission heat pump heating may be the best solution for European heating methods. Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the high prosperity needed for related European industries.
, such as a heat pump, is based on the principle of reverse Kano circulation . It uses a small amount of electrical energy to drive the unit, and circulates in disguised phase through the working medium in the system, so as to absorb, compress and heat up the low-grade heat energy and use it. The heat pump itself does not produce heat, but is just a heat handler. Compared with the mainstream coal, gas and electric heating methods with energy efficiency less than 1, the thermal energy efficiency ratio is as high as 3~4, and it almost does not cause pollution to the environment, and it has significant energy-saving and environmental protection advantages.
Since the European natural gas resources are not abundant, the dependence on Russia is as high as 40%. Since the EW conflict, ELS has significantly reduced natural gas exports to Europe, resulting in a surge in energy prices in Europe. In addition, the high temperature drought this summer has had a negative impact on European hydraulics, nuclear energy and photovoltaic power generation. The problem of household heating in winter has become more serious. Therefore, European countries have begun to actively seek alternative solutions, and heat pumps have attracted high attention from consumers for their efficient and energy-saving attributes.
As the current situation of electricity bills soaring and natural gas flow restriction, many European families hope to use heat pump heating as a replacement for traditional natural gas boilers, which has led to a surge in orders. Related heat pump concept stocks are:
1.Dun'an Environment : a leading global refrigeration component enterprise, long-term deepening in the refrigeration field, expanding its business and focusing on the automotive thermal management track. The technology precipitation in the refrigeration field has enabled the company to develop automotive zero products with technological advantages and established good cooperative relationships with many companies; it has developed rapidly in the field of thermal management, and has a high share in the product market.
2. Sanhua Intelligent Control: Started with the refrigeration business, it has a first-mover advantage in the thermal management market of the automotive zero business, with diverse products and a leading market share. The market share of products such as electronic expansion valve and four-way reversing valve ranks first in the world, and the market share of products such as shutdown valve is at the leading level in the world.
3.Dechang Co., Ltd.: vacuum cleaner +multi-various small appliances+EPS Electrical mechanism builds three pillars. The company is one of the leading vacuum cleaner manufacturing companies in the industry, and has formed a complete business system such as core component research and development and self-made, mold design and manufacturing, product development and design, and complete machine assembly.
Risk warning: risk of raw material price fluctuations, industry policies are not as expected, exchange rate changes, risk of real estate industry recovery is not as expected, trade policy changes, company's own performance decline, fierce market competition, decline in product demand, and decline in sales due to malogenin.
(Special note: The data and information in the article come from company financial reports, securities research reports, industry reports, corporate official websites, Baidu Encyclopedia and other public information. This report strives to ensure that the content and views are objective and fair, but it does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, timeliness, etc. The information or views in the article do not constitute any investment advice. Investors must be responsible for any investment behavior that is determined independently. I shall not be responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by the use of this article.)
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