"Chip Act" is US$50 billion to establish and expand the domestic production of cutting-edge semiconductors in the United States, and to form a sufficient and stable supply of mature process chips to ensure the research and development and production of the next generation of semiconductor technology in the United States.
U.S. companies funded by governments cannot build "frontier or advanced technical facilities" in China for at least ten years, and can only expand mature process wafer factories in China. refers to the current common use of computer screens and cars. The older generation of chip production usually has a size of 40 nanometers or more.
Global industrial transfer, labor factor is crucial. The average hourly wage of Americans is US$20.9 (RMB 144), which is basically the daily wage of many Chinese workers. and Americans do not like to work overtime, and their overtime income is even more High; Chinese workers are completely incomparable to American workers.
market factors, global chip sales reached US$5,560 in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 25%. The sales in the Chinese market reached US$192.5 billion, ranking first in the world; , and the growth rate of the Chinese market is also higher than that of the international market. If China does not When purchasing American chips, the chips produced by are not expensive and sales are a problem, so building a factory is naturally a loss-making deal; the US "Chip Act" is a typical concern for the beginning and the end.
In the field of chip packaging and testing, Sun and Moonlight, Antuo, Jiangsu Changdian, Silicon Products, and Licheng have become the world's five largest chip packaging and testing giants, with a market share of over 70%. In the list of the top ten chip packaging and testing companies in the world, there are More than 9 companies come from China, and Chinese companies also account for up to 80% of the market share of , controlling the global chip packaging and testing market.
Even if the United States builds chip factories and does not have supporting industries, it will undoubtedly increase costs. It is basically impossible for these supporting factories to be transferred to the United States. China has mastered the core technologies in this area.
In the field of chip foundry, TSMC (53.9%), Samsung (17.3%), UMC (7.2%), GM (5.3%), and SMIC (4.8%) have become the world Among the five major chip foundry giants, directly monopolized more than 88.8% of the global market share.
Affected by the US "Chip Act", TSMC and Samsung have both given active plans to build factories in the United States. TSMC announced plans to invest more than US$70 billion in the United States to build factories. Samsung has submitted more than 10 applications for building factories, with a total investment plan. It will exceed US$190 billion; the factory construction plan does not mean that it will be successful, and three reasons make the factory construction plan variable.
1. The construction cycle of factory construction in the United States is long. According to the news released by TSMC, it has built a 5nm chip factory in the United States and is expected to be officially put into production in 2024. This is a normal and smooth plan for building a factory. Foxconn has learned from the previous experience of building a factory construction in the United States. fully proves that the efficiency of American affairs is very poor.
Foxconn, led by Terry Gou, announced that it would build a high-end panel factory in Wisconsin, USA with over 10 billion US dollars; this project was boasted by then-US President Trump as the "Eighth Miracle in the World" and a symbol of the revitalization of the US manufacturing industry; The reality is cruel. On the 3,000 acres of land that have been under construction for five years, there are still only a few buildings. , a huge substation, , has basically not been developed, and it is a completely unfinished factory.
On the contrary, Tesla's Shanghai Super Factory achieved "starting construction in the same year, completing construction in the same year, putting production in the same year, and going to the market in the same year". China's service efficiency is not much faster than that in the United States!
2. The United States is very dishonest. The "Chip Act" is an installment payment, and new conditions are proposed later; , for example, requires TSMC to hand over the core technology of advanced process chip production. If TSMC is unwilling to hand over the core technology, can it get it? Subsidies are hard to say.
On the contrary, if TSMC hand over its core technology, then TSMC has no technical advantages on which it depends for survival, and the development of the company is worrying.
3. China's speed; in 2020, the State Council formulated that my country's chip self-sufficiency rate will reach 70% by 2025; China's execution is unquestionable, and it is expected that chips produced in China will drive the overall industry price decline, and precedents Very many.
If TSMC and Samsung really go to the United States to build factories on a large scale, then they don’t want to talk about corporate development. Survival is their primary concern. definitely picked up sesame and lost watermelon. Of course, these industry giants are not stupid. I guess they have a loud thunder and a big chance of raindrops!
2, D Index , DJones Index , Nasdaq Index Trend Analysis
D Index 3D Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3HD Index 3H Within 2%, 8.6% of CPI is still very far from this goal, and the road to hiking interest rates in USD is still very long.
DJones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 stopped falling, rising for two consecutive times, but the increase narrowed, the Dow Jones Index rose 0.61%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 0.6%. Can the small trend stop the decline? It also needs to be observed. At the same time, US stock leader Tesla and Amazon have gained a small increase, while Apple fell 0.96%.
3, Shanghai Composite Index , ChiNext Index Trend Analysis
In the environment where the United States stopped falling and rising sharply, the ChiNext Index (up 1%), Shanghai Composite Index (0.82%), and Shenzhen Component Index (1.11%) Simultaneously, small trends are low-level fluctuations, Mid-Autumn Festival before the holiday oscillation market meets the technical characteristics; northbound funds flowed in 17.4 billion yuan.
4. Summary of Wenqutang stock market trading experience
At the end of the decline of the stock market, analyzing and studying the industry stocks supported by national policies, especially the best leading stocks in the industry, is the most important task for investors; after the stocks fell sharply, Only if the industry has development prospects and the best individual stocks in the industry have the opportunity to rise rapidly!
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