Zhepu Securities Co., Ltd. recently conducted research on Aipu Co., Ltd. and released a research report "Zhepu Co., Ltd. Key Recommendations". This report gave a rating on Aipu Co., Ltd., with the current share price of 11.49 yuan.
Aipu Co., Ltd. (603020)
Core logic: The company is a leading company in flavors and spices, and has gradually transformed into a comprehensive supply chain leader that can provide product solutions through the expansion of food ingredients business such as industrial chocolate and fruit products. We believe that it is the low point in performance and fundamentals in 22Q2, and it is expected to enter the upward channel in the future.
Drivers beyond expectations:
Exceeded expectations:
Market believes that the market may define the company more as a leading company in flavors and flavors;
We believe that the company is expected to become a comprehensive supply chain leader that can provide product solutions in the future, in the long run, There is a lot of room for growth. 1) The company's edible flavors and spices are already the largest domestic company with large capital, with rich resources and stable cooperation. It is expected to become the leading company of international flavors and spices in the future; 2) After the chocolate business is put into production next year, it will become the largest chocolate factory in China. The current company's chocolate The production capacity is 38,000 tons, and it is expected that the capacity will be released from 15,000 to 20,000 tons per year in the next three years; from the demand side, the current orders are sufficient, the resources of large customers are stable, and the development of new customers is smooth. According to the company's current customers who have become qualified suppliers of brands Look at the annual demand for chocolate production capacity is between 200,000 and 250,000 tons, and the demand side is large; 3) Although the jam business is in the business and personnel adjustment period in the short term, it has advantages in the technical level and raw material side, and there are still subsequent developments with the release of production capacity. Larger space. Therefore, the company's food ingredients manufacturing business is synergistic with the original flavors and flavors business, combined with the company's own supply advantages, will help the company become the leader in providing comprehensive compound product solutions and have long-term growth potential.
exceeded expectations Two:
The market believes that the company's tobacco flavor business accounts for a small proportion and makes little subsequent contribution.
We believe that the company's tobacco flavor business has resource and technical advantages, and the e-cigarette and e-liquid business with high profitability will be expected to exceed expectations in the future. The company's previous tobacco flavors were mainly traditional cigarette flavors, and the overall scale was expected to be more than 100 million in 2021, so the company itself has certain resources, technology and customer advantages; by the end of 2021, the company plans to enter the e-cigarette and e-liquid business, and it is expected that the subsequent license will be able to The implementation and the signing of orders will bring new business growth to the company; at the same time, the gross net profit margin is higher than its original main business, which is expected to drive future expectations.
Catalyst: The implementation of the license for the electronic cigarette business, the release of food ingredients production capacity, etc.
What is the current stock price (bottom/mid-air)? Have you responded to this expectation? How much did you react?
The company was affected by the epidemic in the second quarter. We believe that the company's operations and fundamentals are relatively low, and its stock price has recently rebounded. We believe that the current stock price is at the bottom and has not fully reflected the subsequent expectations of e-liquid and other businesses.
profit forecast and valuation:
is expected to achieve revenue of 3.550/4.024/4.597 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, respectively, 6.15%, 13.35% and 14.24% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders is 150/192/249 million yuan, respectively; net profit attributable to shareholders is 150/192/249 million yuan, respectively, respectively. Yuan, year-on-year, was -20.29%/27.43%/24.68%, and the operating quality has improved. It is estimated that the company's EPS will be 0.39/0.50/0.62 yuan from 2024, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 28.54/22.30/17.19 times respectively. What is the target price of
? How much space does the current price look at? What is the basis for calculating?
Considering that the company's current edible flavors and flavors have become the first domestic capital, the chocolate factory will become the largest chocolate factory in China after its production capacity is released in 23 years, giving a leading premium to certain manufacturing companies; at the same time, it is expected that the electronic cigarette and e-liquid business will be in 23 years. Contribute profits, while taking into account the growth of the company's performance, the company will be given 30 times the PE in 23 years, corresponding to a target market value of 5.8 billion yuan, and there is still room for 30%-40% of the corresponding current price.
Risk warning: The new crown epidemic has repeatedly affected terminal demand, and the cost of raw materials continues to rise, etc.
Securities Star Data Center calculates based on the research report data released in the past three years, Zhejiang Securities Du Wanze's team has conducted in-depth research on the stock, with the average prediction accuracy in the past three years being 74.77%. It predicts attributable net profit in 2022 in 2022 For profit of 150 million, the forecast PE based on the current price conversion is 29.46.
latest profit forecast details are as follows:
A total of 1 institution has given ratings in the last 90 days of this stock, and buy ratings 1. According to the financial report data in the past five years, Securities Star valuation analysis tool shows that the moat of Aipu Co., Ltd. (603020) has average competitiveness in the industry, average profitability, and poor revenue growth. Financial concerns may be hidden, and financial indicators that must be paid attention to include: monetary funds/total asset ratio, accounts receivable/profit ratio. The stock has a good company index of 2 stars, a good price index of 3 stars, and a comprehensive index of 2.5 stars. (Indicators are for reference only, indicator range: 0 ~ 5 stars, maximum 5 stars)
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