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text｜He Junyi Cheng Siqi Chen Huaishan Yang Yaoxian
New energy vehicle thermal management functional architecture and trends
Thermal management has a wide range of downstream application terminals. The new energy vehicle thermal management system covers multiple circuits such as air conditioning refrigerant, battery water cooling and electric drive liquid cooling. , the functional requirements and architecture are more stringent and complex than those of fuel passenger cars, and they have strong technical homology in new fields such as lithium battery energy storage. At present, mainstream OEMs have completed the implementation of basic functions of thermal management, but technology is still constantly innovating and iterating; in 2020, Tesla Model Y has set a new benchmark for thermal management solutions, heat pump air conditioner , eight-way valve integrated control and intelligent Algorithm calibration and other technologies lead the application. Structural optimization, cost reduction, efficiency improvement, energy conservation and environmental protection are the goals of thermal management technology upgrades.
Looking at the thermal management 1.0 technical architecture from Tesla Model S/X
The three major circuits of air conditioning, battery and motor are connected in parallel and work independently. coolant will not flow across the circuits. The air-conditioning refrigerant circuit realizes the refrigeration function, including electric compressor, evaporative condenser, expansion valve , electronic fan and other components; the passenger compartment heating is realized by PTC (high energy consumption); the battery water cooling circuit is realized by electric It is composed of sub-water pump (drive), aluminum water-cooling plate, cooler (heat exchange) and electronic expansion valve (control); the electric drive cooling circuit is divided into motor water cooling (gradually switching to oil cooling) and deceleration The device is oil-cooled. Model S/X adds four-way valve to realize series and parallel connection of motor and battery circuits (motor waste heat recovery and utilization).
Looking at the thermal management 2.0 technical architecture from Tesla Model 3/Y
Model Y The heat pump air conditioner based on R1234yf refrigerant realizes waste heat recovery of the thermal management loop, supplemented by low-pressure PTC and using refrigerant recycling technology, which improves the performance of the loop in low-temperature environments. Heating efficiency, thereby improving vehicle battery life. In addition, the large integrated eight-way valve dynamically combines the heat pump air conditioning system, electric drive and battery thermal management circuits; it is more efficient than the Model 3 five-way valve (super bottle) integrated component. In addition, motor stall technology, intelligent thermal management algorithm and calibration technology are also important points to watch.
Value chain: Under the trend of iterative upgrades, the added value of heat pumps and eight-way valve integrated components has increased.
Traditional fuel vehicle thermal management only has two circuits: engine and cockpit. The value of a single vehicle is about 2,000-3,000 yuan. The complexity of new energy vehicle systems has increased. The value is generally above 6,000 yuan. The current penetration rate of in heat pump air conditioners in China is about 20%-30%. Compared with non-heat pump thermal management systems, Model Y has added four-way reversing valves, electronic expansion valves and other components. It is expected that the value of an ordinary heat pump air conditioner bicycle will increase by about 1,000 yuan, that of a carbon dioxide heat pump air conditioner will increase by more than 2,500 yuan, and that an R1234yf heat pump with an eight-way valve will increase by 1,500-2,000 yuan, of which the eight-way The valve integrated component bicycle is worth about 2,500 yuan.
Investment advice: The leading thermal management company has significant competitive advantages, and new entrants are accelerating their layout.
The new energy vehicle thermal management industry has entered the 2.0 era, and efficiency improvement, cost reduction and responsiveness are the core driving forces. The current flat division of labor in the supply chain is relatively clear, with OEMs dominating system design and software control. The core competitive element of Tier 1 lies in the ability to self-research and manufacture underlying components. Sanhua Intelligent Control relies on Tesla heat pump air conditioners and integrated control solutions to achieve technology iteration and product upgrades (leading thermal management). The product portfolio, technological innovation and customer resources have created the company's outstanding competitive advantages.In addition, the industry space will expand rapidly in 2021. After the main engine factory has launched mass production, it will have the need to develop point B suppliers. New entrants in the industry such as Top and Dunan are increasing their layout. Be optimistic about Sanhua Intelligent Control and Tuopu Group, and pay attention to Dunan Environment , Yinlun Shares , Clai Electromechanical, Biaobang Shares and other related targets.
The demand for downstream new energy vehicles is lower than expected; the competitive landscape of the new energy vehicle thermal management industry has worsened; the price of raw materials has risen sharply, resulting in cost pressures.
Analyst introduction
In recent years, as the middle-income group continues to expand, living standards generally improve, consumption concepts continue to change, and the demand for tourism continues to grow. At the same time, the state has introduced a series of policies and measures to support the rapid development of the tourism industry. According to statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, the total domestic tourism revenue increased from 1.57 trillion yuan in 2010 to 6.63 trillion yuan in 2019, with an average annual compound growth rate of 17%, far exceeding the GDP growth rate in the same period. It is expected that tourism demand will continue to grow rapidly in the coming period. According to market agency predictions, the number of domestic tourists will exceed 8.3 billion in 2025, with tourism revenue approaching 10 trillion yuan. In order to meet the people's needs for a better life, we must further accelerate the construction of tourism infrastructure and promote the high-quality development of consumption.
He Junyi: co-chief analyst of the automotive industry. Master of Vehicle Engineering from Shanghai Jiao Tong University . He studied under the president of Shanghai Jiao Tong University and has 5 years of experience in securities research in the automotive industry. In 2021, he was awarded the fourth best analyst by New Fortune in the automotive industry, fourth by Crystal Ball, second by Sina Finance Jin Qilin Emerging Analyst, and fifth by Wind Gold Medal Analyst; in 2020, he was ranked fourth by New Fortune Best Analyst in the automotive industry and ranked fourth by Crystal Ball. Ranked fourth in the world; ranked fourth among the best analysts of New Automotive Fortune in 2019, with in-depth coverage of the entire vehicle and parts sectors.
Cheng Siqi: Chief Analyst of the Automotive Industry, Master of Vehicle Engineering from Shanghai Jiao Tong University. Ranked fourth in New Fortune in 2021, ranked first in Sina Finance's Emerging Analysts in 2020, fifth in Jinniu's Best Automotive Industry Analyst Team in 2020, and was a core member of New Fortune's second team in 2017. In-depth coverage of new energy vehicles, intelligent parts and components, and grasping the wave of intelligent electrification.
Chen Huaishan: Master of Mechanical Engineering from Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He once worked at Changjiang Securities Research Institute, has four years of research experience in the securities industry, and was a member of the first team of New Fortune in 2017 and 2019. Joined CITIC Securities in 2021 and conducted research on new energy vehicles, parts and components, and complete vehicles.
Yang Yaoxian: Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in Mechanical Engineering from Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He once worked in the Forward Technology Research Department of SAIC Motor and has two years of automotive R&D experience. After that, he joined the Securities Research Institute and had two years of research experience in the automotive industry. Joined CITIC Construction Investment in 2021 and conducted research on complete vehicles, parts, new energy vehicles, and intelligence.
Securities research report name: "Auto Parts: Thermal Management Technology: Iterative Enlightenment of Tesla Solutions"
External release date: August 23, 2022
Report issuing organization: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.
Report Analyst:
He Junyi SAC License Number: S1440521010002
Cheng Siqi SAC License number: S1440520070001
SFC Central number: BQR089
Chen Huaishan SAC License number: S1440521110006
Yang Yaoxian SAC License number: S1440521070001
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