Before the National Day holiday arrived, domestic oil price statistics still showed that it was a decline of 120 yuan/ton (0.1-0.11 yuan/liter), while Brent crude oil price was only US$88 per barrel. However, in the past three trading days, Brent crude oil has approached US$92 per barrel, reaching a new high of nearly two and a half weeks, and has exceeded the reference benchmark for this round of oil price statistics.
Now it can be basically concluded that the decline of oil price of 120 yuan/ton will no longer exist. Judging from the recent increase in Brent crude oil prices, oil prices will still record an increase of about 30 yuan/ton, and the expectation of a lower oil price is becoming increasingly slim. The only thing I have some thoughts is that the statistical work will be carried out until October 10. Considering that the current increase is not large and is lower than 50 yuan/ton, there is still a chance of a turnaround in the future.
Since June 28, the mid-lane for 7 oil price adjustments have been lowered 6 times, with a total of 1,605 and 1,550 yuan/ton lowered the price of gasoline and diesel by 1,605 and 1,550 yuan/ton. The retail price of No. 0 diesel has also dropped from 9.03 yuan/liter to 7.88 yuan/liter, which is the only oil type that has entered the 7 yuan era, but the problem is also obvious, and the gap with 8 yuan/liter is not big. The time for the oil price adjustment to start is 24:00 on October 10.
Latest news shows that OPEC+ may cut production by 1 million to 2 million barrels per day to avoid further weakening of energy prices after a sharp decline in recent months. Brent crude oil prices were about $120 in mid-June, but had plummeted to $85 in late September, a drop of up to 30%, as the global economy may move to a technical recession and endanger oil demand.
Now, as overseas inflation continues to remain high, the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are tightening financial conditions, which is more than previously expected, which could lead to a broader global economic slowdown.
to December EU will stop importing Russian crude oil, but industry insiders say they are turning to other oil export regions such as Africa and West Asia, while oil producers in West Asia are also seizing this opportunity. For example, Saudi Arabia significantly lowered its export price in October.
Judging from the rise in Brent crude oil prices since last week, the expected production cuts may have been undervalued so far, so we may not see the market reacting too much to the OPEC+ decision. However, the action of OPEC+ may become the bottom of future crude oil prices, preventing the market from triggering another sharp decline due to betting on weak oil demand.
In addition, in terms of recent market factors, the trend of crude oil prices is improving. In addition to OPEC+ intending to support oil prices to maintain the income of oil-producing countries, the release of US strategic oil reserves has ended, and the EU's sanctions on Russian oil exports should create a positive environment for WTI and Brent crude oil, which also means that crude oil prices may have more room for upward growth before the end of the year.
At the same time, Goldman Sachs also believes that oil prices are still bullish, but given the weak global demand, the upward trend will not be as strong as originally expected. A research report released by Goldman Sachs pointed out that the average price of Brent crude oil will rise to US$100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, and will continue to rise to US$108 per barrel in 2023.
