1. The brightest track for new energy this year is undoubtedly the explosive growth of European household storage stimulated by high electricity prices. High demand growth has boosted the shipping elasticity of the industrial chain and promoted smooth price transmission capabilities, resulting in the volume of related companies. Lithium-ion batteries such as Paineng and Penghui, and inverters such as Sunshine, Jinlang , Goodwe , and Deye are still the most certain investment directions for energy storage. However, the boom in energy storage is not limited to home storage. In the past two years, large-scale energy storage has also been at an inflection point. The United States has continued to grow at a high rate, and China and Europe are poised for development. For example, if lithium battery resources and material prices decline next year, the large-scale energy storage industry chain will It is also expected that both volume and profit will rise.
2, from the data point of view:
1) WoodMac caliber, the energy storage installed capacity in the United States in 2021 is 10.5GWh, a year-on-year increase of 198%, of which large-scale energy storage in front of the meter is 9.1GWh, accounting for 87%; the US energy storage installed capacity in 2022Q1 is 2.4GWh, a year-on-year increase 163%, including 1.9GWh of front-meter energy storage; some projects in the US front-meter market have been postponed due to lithium battery supply and price factors, but demand has not disappeared, which is the basis for continued high growth in the future; the installed capacity is expected to exceed 20GWh in 2022, and procurement Demand is 40GWh.
2) According to Solar Media, the British public utility energy storage tender reached 11.5GW, a record high. In the dynamic containment and long-term balancing mechanism model, energy storage has a stronger competitive advantage than natural gas , and the future volume can be expected.
3) According to statistics from Sobi Energy Storage Network, domestic 2022H1 electrochemical energy storage project bidding reached 14.2GW/31.2GWh (reaching 2.2GW/4.5GWh in June alone; domestic installed capacity in 2021 is about 2.4GW/5GWh), especially in Ningxia, Gansu, Shanxi, Hebei, and Shandong lead the way in terms of bidding scale; with the rapid development of domestic renewable energy, energy storage adjustment has become necessary. Sanbei, Shandong, Shanxi and other places are leading demonstrations of domestic large-scale energy storage. If within the next year, With the implementation of the policy of “capacity electricity price mechanism and transmission and distribution price calculation”, the explosion of large-scale energy storage in China is imminent.
3. Domestic large-scale energy storage bidding exceeds expectations
Recently, Nanjing Technology released the 2022-2024 energy storage battery cell framework agreement procurement project bidding announcement on its electronic procurement trading platform. The subject is 0.5C lithium iron phosphate battery cell. , the bidding scale is expected to be 5.56GWh; in addition, bidding for large-scale optical storage and independent energy storage projects has been launched frequently in various places recently. For example, Huaneng recently launched the procurement of energy storage equipment for four optical storage projects in Yunnan, based on a 10%/2h allocation and storage ratio. The total scale reaches 110MWh. It is worth noting that Yunnan has not previously had clear policy documents requiring the capacity and proportion of new energy distribution and storage.
1) Look at the growth rate: the domestic growth rate is not lower than that of European household savings, and the amount is larger. The installed household storage capacity in Europe in 2021 is 2-3GWh, in 2022 it is expected to be 5-6GWh, and in 23 it is expected to be 12GWh. That is to say, the household savings growth rate in Europe has been 100% in the past two years. In contrast, in China, as of July 12, 2022, the cumulative domestic electrochemical EPC and equipment bidding totaled approximately 7.64GW/14.87GWh (in order to restore the real data, in the project filing, the design framework bid, report preparation bid, and survey and design services were excluded bids, supervision bids, etc.), most of which are required to be completed before the end of the year. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic installed capacity of energy storage (only considering the power system) in 2022 will be 6GW+/12GWh+, while the domestic installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in 21st will be 1.87GW/3.49GWh (CNESA caliber), with a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 250%. With the decline in the cost of battery raw materials and the implementation of energy storage subsidy policies, it is expected that the installed energy storage capacity will still double in 2023, and is expected to be 12GW/24GWh.
2) Look at the turning point: The domestic energy storage industry is developing healthily and rapidly. Logic 1: Energy storage construction is imperative, and subsidy policies may be an important driver. The current consumption capacity of the power grid is limited, and it may not be able to support the centralized wind and solar installations expected by the market while ensuring a certain wind and solar utilization rate. Perhaps only the introduction of corresponding subsidy policies can stimulate the development of domestic energy storage and solve the problems of grid consumption and stability caused by the integration of a high proportion of renewable energy into the grid. Logic 2: The construction of wind and solar bases is accelerating, and the energy storage business model is improved. In the second half of the year, the power generation side distribution and storage are expected to usher in rapid and healthy development. At present, large domestic wind and solar bases require strong energy storage, the proportion is generally 10%-20%, and the duration is usually 2 hours. However, the allocated energy storage has no profit model and is mostly idle. There is a phenomenon of "bad money drives out good money".The Energy Administration is promulgating relevant policies to ease the problem. For example, it mentioned in the June policy: For the power generation side, distribution and storage projects that meet the qualifications can participate in the power market and obtain reasonable returns.
