Is the balance between long-term and short-term, the balance between oneself and the market, or the balance between expectations and reality. From a micro perspective, investment is also the balance between data and perception, an absolute and relative balance. Of course, investment is still a balance between longs and shorts and , which is a balance between risk and return, and it is also a balance between persistence and giving up. Investing is an art of balance. Only by understanding trade-offs and choices can one be considered mature and not burdened by stubbornness.
news:
The market generally expects that this week, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again 275 basis points. The yields of the US dollar and US Treasury rose on Monday, putting pressure on gold prices. The gold price closed down 1.73% in October, the seventh consecutive month of decline, the longest monthly decline in history. During this period, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 300 basis points, setting the largest intensive interest rate hike since 1981, and continued to suppress the gold price. Traders will actively focus on the Fed's wording on future rate hikes, and people are discussing when the rate hikes will be narrowed. Comments by Fed officials after the policy decisions were released and labor market data later this week will help markets form expectations for the December meeting and beyond rate hikes.
Other global central bank is suggesting that the pace of tightening will slow down in the future. The Bank of Canada turned to a 50 basis point rate hike last week, while European Central Bank announced a 75 basis point rate hike last week, but the hawkish tone was slightly eased. However, if Powell says he believes the Fed's September forecast is outdated, it could overturn expectations for a cut in December's rate hike and lay the foundation for the Fed to take more radical measures.
Overall, although concerns about the geopolitical situation and the recession of global economy still provide some safe-haven support for gold prices, the Fed's expectation that a 75 basis point rate hike this week is still supporting the US dollar and US Treasury yields. Before the interest rate decision, gold prices were still weak and faced further downward risks. But investors need to be wary of the possibility that the Fed will pave the way for slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes. If so, gold prices will be expected to have a big rise after the Fed's interest rate decision this week, and investors need to avoid risks in advance.
Gold Analysis:
Monday failed to have a rebound trend, and the thinking was maintained at a high-altitude thinking layout, and it is still viewed weakly in the short term. Therefore, Tuesday continued the structural expectations of Monday, and the decline had already declined. In a weak trend environment, in a large cyclical environment, the current weak trend has poor continuity, and basically the rebound is accompanied by a decline after the rebound, and the decline often forms a continuity decline in a weak environment. This is the characteristic of the trend structure, and the short-term decline is continuity. The market trend is slow in the day, so the trend structure is mainly based on the trend direction layout. Point selection is more critical. If you don’t give a certain opportunity, you can still participate in the market and continue to bearishness in the short term;
Technical perspective, the daily line stochastic indicator is dead cross , and the pattern is a continuous negative K decline; since the daily K indicator is a dead cross, we choose the idea of dead cross high altitude (before it was golden cross , we chose the low-bang idea to deal with it; for the four hours, it is temporarily fluctuating and falling, falling below 1640, and the lower track of BOLL opens downward. There are downward conditions; however, in terms of indicators, the stochastic index falls under secondary pressure, and the low point is temporarily around 1630. If the stochastic index is bonded with a golden cross, then you should pay attention to the trend of pullback upward; MACD index is temporarily passive and dead cross downward, and the signals of the two indicators are different. At least, it is difficult to rise sharply for the time being unless stimulated by "external force";
The hourly line fell sideways yesterday, the European market fell, and the US market fell, and this sideways downward trend has emerged; the stochastic index oscillates at a low level, and there is no golden cross yet - without a golden cross, there is no rebound and pullback, or even reversal, which must be reversed.MACD indicator divergence state; the signal, price, pattern, and indicators of the hourly line are not very clear at the moment; To sum up: During the day, our thinking temporarily positioned at high altitude (the daily K stochastic indicator is a dead cross); pressure position: 1640-1646-1653; support position 1630-1622-1615; operation suggestions:
Low order: Asian session rebound 1640 short , stop loss stands firm above 1643, and the target point is 1632-30 area (effective before three points);
Low order: Intraday rebound hits the 1645/1646 line, stop loss stands above 1653, and the target point is 1630-1625 area;
As an investor, you must have a good attitude and correct investment concept; positive people see an opportunity in every distress, while negative people see a certain anxiety in every opportunity; in the face of violent fluctuations in the market, we must seize every opportunity. If we seize the opportunity, it is equivalent to grasping tomorrow! I have all-round time: 7:00 am to 2:00 am. The content of the article is for reference only. The specific small source intraday trading shall prevail. Investment is risky, so please do a good job of risk control.
