Last Friday, Hangxiao Steel Structure published a summary of the telephone communication, which was beyond expectations. The words of the Secretary of the Board fully demonstrated Hang Xiao’s pragmatic spirit and technological leadership. This article will discuss in depth the investment logic of Hangxiao Steel Structure.
1, Perovskite and HJT The word
has been appearing very frequently recently, and there has been no shortage of bull stocks recently. Jingshan Light Machinery (the author recommended it at the bottom of the commune, the earliest in the market China Resources Power 12gwHJT, the biggest beneficiary - ----Jingshan Light Machinery), Baoxin Technology, King Kong Glass and so on.
Perovskite and HJT are actually not new terms. Why does the market choose to speculate in this direction? In fact, there is an underlying logic here - the price increase of upstream silicon materials forces the urgency of new technological innovations in the downstream.
Since last year, upstream silicon materials have remained at a high level. On the one hand, it is due to the mismatch between supply and demand due to the long production expansion cycle. On the other hand, the changes in the global energy pattern have caused downstream operating rates and production capacity to continue to exceed expectations. A series of chain reactions, including last week's LONGi , Zhonghuan and others raising silicon wafer prices, have also continued to prompt the downstream photovoltaic industry to accelerate the innovation of new technologies --------- reduce costs and reduce upstream costs This is the most urgent need at present, and it is also the underlying logic of this round of hype on perovskites and HJT. In the past two years, perovskites have continued to attract the attention of capital. Not only companies in the photovoltaic industry have been studying the layout, but also big players outside the industry CATL and Tencent have entered. When it comes to perovskites, we have to mention one city - Hangzhou. Currently, several of the leading players in the industry are gathered in this city, Hangzhou Fiber Nano Optoelectronics; Hangzhou Zhongneng Optoelectronics and what we are going to talk about today. Hete Optoelectronics, a subsidiary of Hangxiao Steel Structure. Hete Optoelectronics was established in 2014. In July last year, Hang Xiao invested in Hete Optoelectronics and increased its cash capital by 35 million. At the same time, Dr. Zhang Qunfang, the founder of Hete Optoelectronics, took shares after evaluating intangible assets to avoid excessive dilution. In this way, the company It became a holding subsidiary of Hangxiao Steel Structure, accounting for 51%, and Zhang Qunfang accounted for 49%. Last month, Hang Xiao continued to increase its stake to 65%. Zhang Qunfang is a big player in the photovoltaic field. He graduated from the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2006, majoring in condensed matter physics. In the same year, he went to the French National Academy of Sciences to pursue postdoctoral studies. In 2001, Zhang Qunfang began to engage in research on solar cell technology, and achieved a research breakthrough in 2005. His independently developed nanocrystalline silicon/crystalline silicon heterojunction solar cell technology has reached the internationally advanced level . Obtained 1 invention patent and more than 10 invention patents in the field of solar cell technology research. Key points: PhD in condensed matter physics from the Chinese Academy of Sciences . He started researching solar cells in 2001 and has 20 years of HJT R&D experience. It is worth noting that the 2022 Optoelectronic Construction Industry Innovation Conference held in Hangzhou on the 7th of this month was co-organized by Hete Optoelectronics. Dr. Zhang Qunfang also spoke at the meeting According to the research minutes, Hete Optoelectronics’ technical summary and The progress is as follows: Technology: HJT perovskite stacked cell Application: BIPV project Photoelectric conversion efficiency: 28% in pilot test, final 30% (compared to the highest on the market 24.7%) Light transmittance : 92% (compared to the market 68%); mainly due to the improvement of heterojunction process (heterojunction is close to 26% light transmittance + perovskite superposition band) production line and progress: the pilot line will be put into production at the end of 22, 1 million square meters; later expansion to 10 million square meters; 10 production bases are planned, with an investment of 2.5 billion in a single production base (heterojunction 1.8 billion + coating line 700 million) Positioning: Zhejiang Province major special project The data can be seen that it has surpassed many peers on the market. But it’s not the data that attracts me. Its overall layout—from upstream research and development to the application of downstream BIPV scenarios, as well as the parent company’s increase in equity stake, employee incentives, and a series of other actions—make me feel that this is a pragmatic company. And companies that are really doing real things are not exaggerating. I think the current structure of the entire perovskite industry should be: 1. The essence of all the current hype about perovskites is to benefit HJT. HJT itself is good, and the added technical reserves are even better. HJT + perovskite 2 . Its characteristics of translucency and flexibility are more suitable for integrated buildings: photovoltaic integration + perovskite 3. It is still very early for the large-scale commercialization of power stations. At the stage of listening to stories, at this stage, look more at the device side This is actually correct. The benefits of the industry are more inclined to 2, so we are focusing on the development of 2 photovoltaic building integration. BIPV field may be the first to cover the application market of perovskite, with a total market size exceeding 100 billion. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics , the total area of urban construction land in my country in 2020 was approximately 58.3 billion square meters. Assumption: 1) The total area of urban construction land in my country: growing at an annual growth rate of 2% (refer to the 2018-2020 growth rate of 2%). 2) Installable area: The rooftop photovoltaic utilization rate is 30%, and the facade photovoltaic utilization rate is 10%. Industry and commerce account for 30% of the total area. 3) The annual renovation rate is 5% and the completion rate is 10%. (Refer to historical assumptions) 4) The installed wattage per square meter is 200W, and the unit price per watt is 5.5 yuan, which will be reduced by 10% every year. (Currently sold at a premium compared to traditional components) 5) estimates that the potential installed market for BIPV reaches 203GW, corresponding to a potential market size of 121 billion Just imagine, in this industry worth hundreds of billions, whose technology and production capacity can take the lead , who will be the final king. performance calculation: perovskite component is 60 times PE (traditional components are 30 times PE, new technology is doubled) is based on the pilot line: 1 million square meters, 1,000 yuan/square revenue, net interest rate 10% (perovskite Module cost reduction, BIPV integrated model is more profitable), corresponding to a profit of 100 million; corresponding to a market value of 6 billion According to the forward production line: 10 million square meters, corresponding to a profit of 1 billion; corresponding to a market value of 60 billion So Hete Optoelectronics’s forward The market value will reach 60 billion. Let’s take a look at the determination of the parent company’s management. In order to further motivate the senior managers and core employees of Hete Optoelectronics, Hangxiao Steel Structure plans to repurchase 5 million to 10 million shares of the company’s shares for the implementation of the employee stock ownership plan. . The performance assessment requirement is that the net profit of Hete Optoelectronics in 2023/2024 is not less than 50 million/100 million yuan. According to the equity incentive gambling agreement , the performance estimates are also similar. . . . . ------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------- write At the end: Hangxiao steel structure pilot test is 1 million square meters, and the long-term planning is 10 million square meters. This is a fairly feasible line. If the pilot test is implemented, if the parameters can be as advertised, then it will be the basis for a five-fold stock in the long term. In fact, if Xiaohang now wants to acquire 10 million square meters, he is trying to make a fool of himself, which is not true. Xiaohang's current debt is not low, and the overall debt is higher than the book. The fixed increase of 1 billion is actually a small incident for the photovoltaic industry. However, when pilot products are put out and combined with their own industry relevance, funding is not a problem. Likewise, stock price and market capitalization are not issues. For the photovoltaic industry, as long as there is a mature process line, output and funds are not a problem, because this industry is now at the forefront of the world, and there are many big guys with money who want to invest. Having a production line will turn a steel structure company into a new energy company. The valuation of steel structures is completely different from that of new energy. The initial production capacity of Hangxiao can be fully digested internally, and in the future, the national policy of industrial carbon reduction and consumption reduction will become tighter every year, forcing the industry to invest in upgrading. This is what Europe has seen, and it has gradually happened in China of. Therefore, Hangxiao’s initial production capacity does not need to compete with large manufacturers, which is very critical. Many blindly put into production and bet on technical routes. In fact, after landing, even if your product performance has advantages, the price must be competitive and the market must be competitive, there is no certainty whether it will succeed. So the sudden rise and fall is speculation. We invest in it, watch it go step by step, and just know where the levels are. When you buy it, you get a share, become its shareholder, watch it grow, share the profits, and bear the risks. Relative to photovoltaics, 5 yuan is the price of original stock , because its steel structure is valued at 5 yuan.
