Data and history are like little girls. As long as they are carefully dressed up and displayed, they will always be deceptive. There are two pieces of data recently that confuse everyone. Secondly, there is Hong Kong’s economic data. Agence France-Presse said that 25 years after

data and history are all little girls, as long as they dress up and show them carefully, they will always be deceptive.

has two recent data that confuses everyone. First, electricity consumption in Guangdong plummeted in May, down 16.7% year-on-year; secondly, Hong Kong economic data, AFP said After Hong Kong returned to , the proportion of GDP in mainland China fell sharply. From 18% to 3%, the future is uncertain, which means that Hong Kong’s economy will continue to decline after the return. Is this really the case with

? Is Guangdong’s economy in recession? Is Hong Kong hopeless?

all say that data cannot deceive, but if you take it apart, you will find that data is even more deceptive!

1. Guangdong’s electricity consumption plummets

As an export town, Guangdong’s data has always affected everyone’s hearts. In 2022, the load adjustment lighting in Guangdong Province will be 61.918 billion degrees, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7%. Among them, industrial electricity consumption was 39.1 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. Residential electricity consumption was 9.39 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 32.4%. After dismantling the

data, it will be found that residents’ electricity consumption has been significantly reduced.

Friends in Guangdong all know that the weather is obviously abnormal this year. Homes are not as hot as in previous years, especially when the air conditioner is turned on, which is a major factor in reducing residents' electricity consumption. In addition, industrial electricity consumption is affected by the weather, and the cooling demand for factories and other buildings will definitely decrease. If you put aside this factor, the data confusion will be smaller.

Of course, there will also be some reduction in demand, which will affect the shortage of production. But the actual situation is much better than some economists expected.

When we opened the import data for the first five months, it was more than 16 trillion. Although there is a certain gap compared to last year's 39 trillion, overall it is not as unbearable as imagined. From June to the end of the year, a balance of almost 24 trillion will be achieved. There will still be pressure this year.

Our import and export data were very good last year, mainly due to the dividends brought by the epidemic prevention policy. As an economy that can provide cheap production capacity to Europe and the United States, it was the only one that could operate at full capacity and had export capabilities last year, so the total trade volume last year was a good figure.

However, as the Fed raises interest rates curbs demand. Overall exports will definitely encounter pressure this year. Due to the short-term irreplaceability of Chinese manufacturing, this fluctuation must be controlled within a relatively reasonable space.

Therefore, when many people see the electricity consumption data in Guangdong, they will definitely become pessimistic and exaggerate. If you take the data apart and combine it with local climate conditions, you'll find that the data can really be deceiving.

Not only economists, but also some politicians’ mouthpieces are well aware of this. No, Hong Kong's economic data is here to discredit it again.

2. Is Hong Kong’s economy really bad?

AFP, the future of Hong Kong’s economy is uncertain. In particular, GDP data has dropped from 18% where it returned to less than 3%. Where did the number

come from? Let’s restore it:

In 1997, mainland China’s GDP was US$961.6 billion and Hong Kong’s GDP was US$177.4 billion. Hong Kong accounted for 17.8% of the mainland economy.

In 2021, mainland China's GDP will be US$17.7 trillion, an increase of 18.43 times compared with 1997. Hong Kong's GDP is US$368 billion, an increase of 2.04 times compared with 1997, and Hong Kong accounts for 2.07% of mainland China's GDP.

Looking at it this way, what they said is true. The data is absolutely logical but extremely ridiculous.

Let’s look at France. Its GDP in 1997 was US$1.45 trillion; in 2021, France’s GDP was US$2.93 trillion. From 1997 to 2021, the economic growth rate was 2.02 times, which is not as good as Hong Kong!

Everyone should know that in the past few years since the return of the motherland, there have been people making trouble in Hong Kong at every turn.

If we compare Hong Kong with most countries in Europe and Japan, it will beat them from the perspective of growth rate. This is true for both the UK and Japan. So who has the least future?

They are comparing the economies of Hong Kong and China, and there are problems with overall sampling. At first, mainland China was only the leader of and EU . Now, it is already the second largest economy in the world. How does this compare?

Of course, Hong Kong people will definitely feel uncomfortable when they see this data. Back then, most of the so-called mistress villages in Shenzhen were Hong Kong truck drivers. At that time, Hong Kong people were very privileged. Around 2003, taxi drivers in Shenzhen often received Hong Kong dollars.But now, how many drivers will ask for Hong Kong dollars?

Before the Hong Kong dollar, my impression was that the exchange rate was around 1:1.08. I remember that I had 100 Hong Kong dollars back then. When I returned to my hometown, I converted it into RMB, which made a lot more. In recent years, when going to Hong Kong to buy things, the exchange rate has been discounted.

Anyway, now whether you are a taxi driver or a hawker, you are not so enthusiastic about asking for Hong Kong dollars.

It is not that Hong Kong has regressed, but that the mainland has made great strides forward. Everyone is moving forward, some at a faster pace, and some are moving forward but their amplitude and frequency are out of sync.

data is dressed up and dressed up like this.

Today’s topic is over. When everyone looks at the data, try to think from another dimension, and the conclusions you get will be different.

3. Regarding the stock market analysis

’s weekend outlook, US stocks once again gave exciting answers. In late trading of and , all three major indexes turned red, with increases above 1%. Europe is not bad either, with two reds and one green. It drove the 50 index upward, which rekindled hope for many people.

The rise in US stocks is nothing more than an economic recession. Will it cause the Federal Reserve to tighten expectations? This can only be wishful thinking, because the inflation data is there, and the Fed can only choose to pinch its nose and add more. At the same time, the European Central Bank is also about to take action, because following the explosion of inflation in the United States, Europe is also facing digital problems.

The external long-short game has entered a tangled state, and there are also constant long-short news domestically.

During the two days of rest, the epidemic got out of control in Siyang, Anhui. Here, neighboring provinces will be affected. For example, in Jiangsu Subei, Xuzhou suddenly added several medium and high risks. Sunan 's Wuxi is also affected by the epidemic...

According to the news, the National Development and Reform Commission is interviewing pig companies...

Many logics have said that everyone should look for opportunities here.

Technically, 345 has completed the top range last week. Here, the 60-minute stroke starts downward, and the proactive action has been made. From July to late July, you can just wait for some cheap opportunities after the 20th. On this downward trend, one transaction in 60 minutes means several K's per day. It takes at least 3 transactions to complete a period. In this way, it only lasts a few trading days. This is how we look at the

time cycle and technology cycle at the moment.

Europe and the United States interest rate hike is to curb consumer demand. We are the world's largest producer, and orders will be affected to a certain extent. Now it depends on the driving force of infrastructure and consumption, otherwise the annual target of 5.5 will be quite difficult.

and above are one direction of technical deduction. They are just opinions of one person and are for your reference only. Any similarity is purely coincidental and should not be used as an investment basis.

See you in session tomorrow.