A few days ago, Deye Co., Ltd. released its third-quarter performance forecast, which caused great controversy in the market.
exceeded expectations for the third quarter of 2022
In the first three quarters of 2022, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 900 to RMB 950 million, with increasing by 124.64% to 137.12% year-on-year, and achieving a net profit excluding non-operating items of RMB 965 to RMB 1.015 billion, a year-on-year increase of RMB 156.05% to RMB 169.33%. Among them, Q3 is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 450 million, an increase of 155.68% to 184.09% year-on-year and a growth of 41.51% to 57.23% month-on-month.
Many people say that this performance is seriously inferior to expectations, and the market value of nearly 100 billion yuan is only made by this kind of money. I also scolded A shares again. It is because there are too many such hot chickens, and it is always 3,000 points unchanged for a thousand years.
However, in the view of the new energy explosion, Deye Co., Ltd.'s third-quarter performance is very good and in line with expectations. If we look at the previous securities companies' average annual net profit of about 1.15 billion yuan, it will definitely exceed expectations throughout the year. Moreover, the highest forecast for its annual profit was 1.43 billion. According to the third-quarter performance forecast, the whole year will definitely exceed market expectations.
As for the fact that many people complain about the high market value, this is indeed true, but this can only be blamed for the domestic chickens and dogs being too crazy. They all look crazy when chasing track assets, but it is a bit too emotional to deny the company's performance.
capital markets are all paying for expectations. It is not about not looking at the absolute value but about the growth rate of performance and the sustainability of growth. Continuity mainly depends on the development of the track and the company's own competitiveness. Deye is in line with market expectations in both aspects.
energy storage, the future development potential of this track is undoubtedly. Wei Ni is the blue ocean track that exploded this year again. In terms of the company, Deye has indeed shown very excellent characteristics in the past two years. If we compare the original micro-normal leader Hemai Co., Ltd., it will be even more stable.
Hemai expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 345-363 million in the first three quarters of 2022, a year-on-year increase of 183.59%-198.52%; net profit excluding non-network is RMB 333-350 million, a year-on-year increase of 182.10%-196.94%.
calculating, Q3 is expected to have a net profit of 143-161 million yuan, a month-on-month increase of 24%-40%. And you should know that a lot of this profit is contributed by deposit interest.
As for why Hemai has so much interest, we have to ask Mr. Xin Securities. When Hemai went public, he only wanted to raise 500 million yuan, but Mr. Xin was as fierce as a tiger and finally successfully raised more than 5 billion yuan. There was too much money and he couldn't spend it all, so he could only earn interest in the bank.
Previously, when we were tracking Deye Co., Ltd. and Hemai Technology, we said that if calculated based on the growth rate of interim performance, if Hemai cannot make rapid efforts in Q3 or Q4, the industry leader of the micro-reverse industry will officially change, and Deye will become a real industry leader.
Judging from the third quarter performance forecast, it should be said that his concerns about Hemai have been verified. When the interim report of
, the business of inverter accounted for nearly half of the total revenue, and the profit accounted for more than 80%. Q3, the revenue of inverter should account for more than 60%, and the profit side should exceed 90%. It is expected that the overall shipment of inverters in Q3 will exceed 400,000 units, of which 220,000 to 250,000 units were shipped, an increase of 35%-55%. It is expected that the shipment of energy storage will be about 100,000 units, a month-on-month increase.
Deye has become the de facto leader in the micro-reverse industry.
Excellent Deye Co., Ltd.
judging from the performance growth rate in the past two years, it has to be said that it has indeed shown the characteristics of an excellent company.
From an injection molding part , mold company, to an air conditioning heat exchanger business, it took several years to become an important supplier of Midea. Later, when it was built by itself in environmental appliances, it became the first in the industry. Later, after seeing the development prospect of the new energy industry, it entered the inverter industry through patent acquisition. In just a few years, it quickly surpassed the front-row players in the industry and eventually counterattacked to become the leader of the micro-inverse industry.
The company's strategic vision, execution ability, channel capabilities, etc. reflected in this process are very worthy of admiration.
interim performance exchange data, the company's inverter products market structure is:
1) micro-inverter, Brazilian accounts for 83%, and Germany accounts for 11%.
2) group, Brazil accounts for 63%, domestic 18%, India 7%, and Poland 64%.
3) Energy storage, South Africa accounts for 25%, the United States accounts for 19%, the domestic 13%, Lebanon 13%, Pakistan 8%, and Dubai 5%.
Lebanon has a land area of only the level of Tianjin, with a population of only over 6 million, and an average income level of not very high (actually more like Arab countries), which actually does 13% of the energy storage market.
, and the company's current largest market source is not North America and Europe, which are recognized as the largest market space, but Brazil in South America. It can be imagined that with the company's execution ability, after starting to make efforts in North America and Europe, how big is the imagination space.
In general, in terms of fundamentals, there is no need to say much about Deye Co., Ltd., the only thing that is a bit worrying is that the valuation is indeed not cheap.
high valuation must be digested by continuous high growth. There is no problem at the moment. In addition, it also depends on whether the market is still willing to give the industry a high valuation, and there is no problem at the moment.
basically has little problem in one or two years. The more you go, you can only look at it while walking. At present, Deye has the most chance to become the next inverter company for Sungrow Power supply .
