fund's stock-bond balanced investment strategy uses long-term allocation and multi-factor dynamic balancing methods to obtain index benchmark excess returns and prove that controlling drawdowns is one of the basic conditions for compound interest.
July 2, 2022, the 141st week of long-term allocation of the fund. There is no operation this week. The current proportion of holdings and of this strategy is:
The market in the first half of 2022 has ended, and the overall situation first fell and then rose, from May to June. The overall decline narrowed, forming a V-shaped trend with a lower right side. In terms of decline, Science and Technology Innovation Board , GEM led the decline, falling -22.11%, -16.27% respectively, Shanghai Composite Index , Shanghai Composite Index , the CSI 100 fell slightly, with the overall decline around 7%. The government bond index recorded an increase of 2.06% in the first half of the year. As a negatively correlated asset, this yearâs performance basically played a significant role in hedging , but the external market this year The bond market is in a bear market, with a very tragic decline. Of course, there are also years in China when stocks and bonds both kill at the same time. This is also a relatively ineffective time period for the stock-bond balance strategy, and the investment experience is quite bad.
The current overall stock market risk index 48.54, the index fund position accounts for 66.06%, the overall risk coefficient of the balanced strategy 114.6% strategy stock equity position is in a balanced state, and the current risk index is already at the central position , the investment strategy is still mainly based on holding positions, the increase is large, and the proportion can be reduced through adjustment.
In terms of the bond market, the ten-year government bond yield 2.826%. The ten-year government bond yield this week increased by 2.8BP compared with last week. This week is still mainly volatile. The current long-term expected yield of the bond market is average, and the allocation direction is, Mainly focusing on equity. Since the equity market has never been able to adjust, the current allocation can give priority to secondary bonds and partial debt funds to prevent the risk of greater fluctuations. If the position ratio is reasonable, you can just hold the position at the current position. There is no need to worry about market fluctuations.
Shanghai and Shenzhen All-A Profit Rate of Return (reciprocal of P/E ratio) 5.459% ( median 5.519%) , standard deviation of rate of return 0.932 (average 0.73) , CSI 800 Profit Rate of Return 7. 153% (median 7.174%) , standard deviation of return 1.531 (average 1.3) , all-A profit return rate, CSI 800 profit return rate is just over the median, in terms of valuation system Judging from the data, the overall market has reached the market center position. The overall position is not high, and there is relatively large room for upwards. However, the margin of safety of valuation is relatively poor, and there is also large room for downwards. Judging from the stock-bond performance-price ratio data and the standard deviation of yields, there is still a certain distance from the average. Assuming that the expected risk-free rate of return does not rise, the current position is relatively underestimated, and there is huge room for upwards. Of course, there is no The risk-return rate also fluctuates. The assumed situation is only convenient for calculating the expected return rate, and the expectations are still uncertain.
operation plan for next week : When the risk index is lower than 40, a new position replenishment operation plan will be started. The proportion of each position replenishment is 2%. It will be carried out on trading days when the average index increase is less than 0%. It will stop until the position risk index exceeds 110%. Execute action plan. The next balancing operation plan is initially planned when the risk index is 60. The specific position will take into account whether the standard deviation of the return rate is around the average.
Through the balance of stocks and bonds, the problem of excessive asset volatility has been better controlled.
Since October 10, 2019, the balance strategy has a return rate of 24.71%, and the benchmark CSI 300 return rate is 16.22% , relative to the benchmark return rate (benchmark excess return) 8.49%. The strategy performed well this week, exceeding the return rate of the 300 Index through 65% of its positions, mainly due to the excellent performance in enhancing the excess return rate.
*** Risk index: The historical percentile of market valuation is changed to a risk index, 0-30 opportunity zone, 70-100 risk zone, 30-70 shock zone. The value of the risk index represents the size of the market system risk. ***
Investment is risky, and you need to be independent when entering the market.
The funds displayed in this article do not constitute investment advice, so please think carefully and carefully!
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