The oil price adjustment pricing cycle has returned to normal operation. At the beginning of the new week, gasoline and diesel prices are still in the expected downward stage. At the same time, superimposed on the latest developments in the crude oil market, oil prices maintain a continuous downward trend, so for all car owners It is very likely that we will see the second consecutive drop in oil prices this year.
It is reported that Russia’s oil production increased by nearly 5% in June, reaching 1.46 million tons/day (10.7 million barrels/day). As the United States plans to visit Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, OPEC+ may insist on increasing production by 648,000 barrels per day in August, hoping to alleviate soaring oil prices and inflationary pressures.
EIA said that global excess production capacity in May was less than half of the 2021 average, affected by the West's influence on Russia. It is estimated that non-OPEC spare capacity as of May fell by 80% year-on-year, with OPEC excess capacity falling to 3 million barrels per day from 5.4 million barrels per day in the same period last year. As of May, the excess production capacity of non-OPEC oil-producing countries was approximately 280,000 barrels per day, far lower than the 1.4 million barrels in the same period last year; 60% of idle production capacity in May 2021 is in Russia.
India and China have emerged as the largest alternative routes for Russian crude oil. In May this year, Russia surpassed Saudi Arabia to become India's second largest oil supplier. Last month, it surpassed Saudi Arabia to become China's largest oil supplier. Currently, about 50% of Russia's crude oil exports go to Eastern countries.
The chairman of the Federal Reserve said that the central bank is not trying to create a recession to stop inflation, but is fully committed to controlling prices, even if doing so risks causing an economic downturn. At the same time, he reiterated that it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates, and the specific speed depends on the economic outlook. Policymakers will need to be flexible in responding to new data as it becomes available. He refused to rule out a single 100 basis point rate hike if it proved necessary.
Analysts said that oil prices may fall back into the end of the year and later, but the trend may have ups and downs. While prices should fall into the mid-$80s by the fourth quarter, there is a risk of a spike in the summer. In view of the strong resistance to economic growth posed by rising commodity prices and central bank actions, a downward trend is expected throughout 2023, and this trend is very likely to continue. Goldman Sachs continues to be very bullish on energy and believes that the upside risks for crude oil and refined oil are currently very high. Remember, the only way to solve these problems is to increase investment, so given record oil prices, they insist that oil prices will rise to the $140 per barrel range by summer, which will bring greater upside to product prices.
Let’s take a look at further changes in the domestic oil price market. Today, July 4, let’s take a look at the adjusted prices of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline in various regions, using only some regions as examples.
Today’s price of No. 92 gasoline in Dali, Yunnan is 9.22 yuan/liter; Today’s price of No. 95 gasoline in Dali, Yunnan is 9.89 yuan/liter; Today’s price of No. 98 gasoline in Dali, Yunnan is 10.57 yuan/liter; Today’s price of No. 0 diesel in Dali, Yunnan is 8.83 yuan/liter.
The today's price of Shanxi Datong No. 92 gasoline is 9.00 yuan/liter; the today's price of Shanxi Datong No. 95 gasoline is 9.72 yuan/liter; the today's price of Shanxi Datong No. 98 gasoline is 10.42 yuan/liter; the today's price of Shanxi Datong No. 0 diesel is 8.85 yuan/liter.
Today’s price of No. 92 gasoline in Sanya, Hainan is 10.18 yuan/liter; today’s price of No. 95 gasoline in Sanya, Hainan is 10.82 yuan/liter; today’s price of No. 98 gasoline in Hainan Sanya is 12.28 yuan/liter; today’s price of No. 0 diesel in Sanya, Hainan is 8.86 yuan/liter.
Today’s price of No. 92 gasoline in Nanning, Guangxi is 9.12 yuan/liter; Today’s price of No. 95 gasoline in Nanning, Guangxi is 9.85 yuan/liter; Today’s price of No. 98 gasoline in Nanning, Guangxi is 10.85. Oil price: National VI 0# diesel is 8.82 yuan/liter.
Today’s oil prices in Inner Mongolia: National VI 0# diesel is 8.62 yuan/liter today; National VI 92# gasoline is 8.99 yuan/liter today; National VI 95# gasoline is 9.60 yuan/liter today.
Today’s oil prices in Xinjiang: National VI 0# diesel today is 8.48 yuan/liter; National VI 92# gasoline is 8.78 yuan/liter; National VI 95# gasoline is 9.43 yuan/liter today.
The above prices are for reference only. Please refer to the actual transactions at gas stations in various places.
