In terms of gold,
gold prices fell by about 0.86% on a weekly basis, and the cumulative decline in June was 1.65%. They continued to weaken after falling back from the highs at the beginning of the week. After falling sharply to $1,784 on Friday, V-type rebounded back to above $1,800. Due to the market There are growing concerns about the economic recession. The US dollar index remains strong and stands above the 105 mark. Bond yields have fallen sharply. The next Friday will be the non-agricultural data for June. The market is currently expected to fall sharply. Wednesday will also There are June Fed minutes. If there is any new information, it will cause considerable fluctuations in gold.
The three major U.S. stock indexes all fell throughout the week. The level of the monthly line also fell sharply, and the quarterly line was a super negative line. The performance in the first half of the year can be said to be very poor. The Nasdaq index fell close to 30%. From 15,800 points at the beginning of the year to 11,000 points at the end of the first half of the year, the total dropped by about 4,800 points. The quarter line has a support at 10,200 points, which is exactly the psychological support of the 10,000 point integer mark, forming a double strong support level, even if it falls below briefly At more than 9,000 points, it may be a good opportunity, which is what I said before.
S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Index have similar trends. The declines in the first half of the year were relatively small, 19.74% and 14.42% respectively. Overall, in terms of the adjustment range and time, the decline can be stopped at any time. If it falls too much, it will rebound. It is normal. After all, it is not an economic recession at present. In theory, it should not fall like the economic crisis of and , so there should be an opportunity for rebound in the second half of the year. If an economic recession really occurs, then if we think one step forward, is it possible to leave the market? An interest rate cut is not far away.
Inflation is likely to bottom out in the second half of the year. The PCE price index is lower than expected and the previous value. A gradual decline may form an inflation turning point. If the downward trend is maintained, monetary policy will gradually become friendly. At the same time, ten-year bonds The yield fell from the highest point of 3.5% to 2.88%, which is a large drop for bond yields. Bond yields are the expectations and games of market transactions. They often reflect future situations in advance and even overreact. Bonds in the second half of the year Yields are likely to flatten, which would be positive for gold and U.S. stocks.
The Fed July interest rate hike may still be relatively strong, with a high probability of a 75 basis point interest rate hike, but it will decrease after September and may return to the regular rate hike. When the rate hike ranges from After 75 basis points drops to 50 or even 25, gold may rebound, but the boots will not hit the ground before the end of July, and there is still a lot of downward pressure.
From a technical analysis , the gold price monthly line has been negative for three consecutive times, the opening of the MACD fast and slow line has expanded, and the probability of continuing to decline is relatively high. The weekly line is also negative for three consecutive days, and the MACD fast and slow line is crossing the zero axis. The trend and direction of the major cycle are It is in a downward trend. The daily line closes a long lower shadow after continuous decline. The gold needle of bottoms out in the form of , which may be a signal of reversal. KDJ takes the lead to turn upward, and RSI also refuses to fall and goes flat. So The long lower shadow line should also have a rebound.
In terms of crude oil,
oil prices increased by about 0.75% on a weekly basis, and the cumulative decline in June was 7.77%. It rose to 114 US dollars at the beginning of the week, and then fell back to 108 US dollars. The overall supply is still in short supply, which has brought solid support to oil prices, but However, the stocks of energy companies performed poorly, so the oil and gas extraction index recorded a large decline on the monthly line. However, the trend in the first half of the year was rising and falling , still rising by 27%.
The risk of economic slowdown also indicates a decline in demand. OPEC maintains its original plan to increase production slightly in August, which can return to pre-epidemic levels. Shale oil is also gradually restoring production capacity. As supply increases It is expected that oil prices and commodities will show an overall correction, but the recovery in Asia is boosting demand and bringing support to oil prices.
is analyzed from a technical perspective. The monthly line of oil prices has closed a large negative line, showing pressure on the head. The weekly line has closed a small positive line. The MACD fast and slow line crosses . The daily line has also closed a positive line, showing a range oscillation. Overall, The head shape is obvious, and there are gradually signs of peaking, but the reversal pattern of and has not yet been formed. There is buying support at dips, and it is more likely to fluctuate at high levels. The monthly line of the oil and gas production index shows a negative shape of negative and positive. , MACD fast and slow lines converge, may shrink and stick to form a dead cross, the weekly line continues the decline, the daily line is supported at the 200-day moving average, and closes the cross star, KDJ and RSI indicator have signs and trends of turning upward, there is The bottom of deviates from the reversal signal of , and there is a high probability that there will be a rebound in the short term.
The above are all personal views shared . I am not an expert, a scholar, or a teacher. The content involved in this article is only for learning and exchange, and does not constitute investment advice. You should operate at your own risk. You need to have your own ideas for investment. Welcome to leave a message to exchange # Gold analysis# #gold# #crude oil#
