To judge whether an investor is mature, you can see whether his views are black and white. What does
mean?
For example, hasn’t medicine fallen miserably since the beginning of the year? The recent rebound has not been very vigorous.
During the continuous decline, I received many inquiries from netizens: When can medicine cover its positions?
I expressed my views on medicine: the fundamentals have changed and I can’t see clearly, so I don’t touch it.
Then netizens started to get excited: Medicine is a big trend. The population will age in the future and the demand will be unlimited! There is also domestic substitution, and the market space is huge! There is still a lot of room for innovative drugs! Medicine is a necessity! Centralized purchasing will bring benefits to good companies. Prices will fall, but volumes will increase.
Anyway, there are a lot of reasons, and they sound right.
Of course, here, I am not trying to argue with you whether the fundamentals of medicine have changed.
What I want to say is, what if these netizens are wrong? Have they thought of a way out?
Netizens’ resigned and stubborn attitude is a kind of black and white.
They only have two opinions when evaluating medicine: it works or it doesn't work. If it works, buy it heavily; if it doesn't work, don't buy it at all.
How should a mature investor treat medicine?
1. Whether it works or not, I will buy it.
For example, although I said I don’t understand medicine clearly, why didn’t I buy it?
is not correct.
In the process of buying the bottom of and , I bought the broad-based index. There is already a weight of medicine in the index, so you can’t say I didn’t buy it.
is just a broad base with a larger proportion of medicine, so I deserve less.
Then even if I'm wrong, I make money. It’s just the difference between making more and making less.
Since I can’t see medicine clearly, I will not allocate medical stocks or medical funds alone. There is no money that must be earned. Are medicines the only things you can buy in the stock market?
Facts have proved that in this round of rebound, there are many investment targets that have increased more than medicine. Why accept death?
To give another example, I also expressed my concerns about gem .
When netizens heard this, they thought, then they shouldn’t buy GEM. But actually I am worthy of it myself! Why should I match
?
2. There is a question to consider at any time: What if I am wrong?
is not only the GEM, but also hot topics such as new energy and semiconductors. I have expressed concerns about their performance and valuation.
But I won’t buy it? What if I'm wrong?
So, no matter what I think, I have to consider what I will do if I am wrong.
So I will still buy it, but I will buy it cautiously and reduce the position a little.
I don’t have a full grasp of industries such as new energy and semiconductors, so I won’t buy the industries separately. I will just use the GEM to allocate them equally.
I am very confident, such as China Concept and Hang Seng Index , I will increase my position.
Therefore, even if I didn’t make a lot from new energy and semiconductors, China Concept and Hang Seng Index also made up for it. I didn't suffer either.
Similarly, now I am still a little worried about GEM, but this does not prevent me from still maintaining a certain proportion of allocation. If the GEM really falls, or it goes sideways and doesn't rise, that doesn't matter. Anyway, it's just a part of the position.
What I want to ensure is whether the long-term annualized rate of return can be achieved, rather than competing with others every year to see who earns more, which is meaningless.
When we set our own investment goals, we should not set short-term and quick-profit goals, but long-term annualized income goals. If the long-term annualized income target is achieved, the overall income will not be bad.
The truly outstanding funds that can achieve huge gains are those funds that have been in the middle and upper reaches for a long time. But they are generally not the top funds in a given year.
must understand this thoroughly.
Some netizens were even more amused. They were obviously worried about the and bubble in the US stock market, but when they saw that the US stock market kept rising, they couldn't hold it back and just ended up buying Nasdaq 100 Index .The result is tragic.
In the investment market, Murphy's Law can be seen everywhere. What is Murphy's Law?
is : whatever you worry about will happen.
So, as long as you are worried, don’t act in a hurry. Think carefully before you act.
3. How to avoid being hurt by Murphy’s Law?
Since whatever you worry about will happen. Then you must think of countermeasures in advance.
For example, a person looked at China Ping An and felt there was nothing wrong with it, but he was still a little worried, but he could not tell what was wrong. What to do with
?
In the end, he bought Ping An , but he also shorted and Xinhua Insurance .
What kind of cool operation is this? The principle of
is that generally speaking, in a bull market, leading stocks will rise more than ordinary stocks; in a bear market, leading stocks will fall smaller.
So in a bull market, the money you make by going long on Ping An is more than the money you lose by going short on Xinhua Insurance, and you make money in the end.
In a bear market, the money made by shorting Xinhua Insurance is more than the money lost by going long on Ping An. In the end, it is also profitable. In this way,
digests the risks it is worried about.
here just quotes the concept of hedging . In actual operation, hedging is not done in one or two sentences, but a whole set of logic.
To give another example, the current stock market has risen a lot from the bottom. Many netizens have not yet opened a position, and now they are extremely confused.
is not only afraid of missing the mark, but also afraid of chasing a high quilt cover.
According to Murphy's Law, since you worry about these two things at the same time, you may get shot at both.
Some people say, aren't these two completely opposite things? How is it possible to hit two mines at the same time?
According to past observations, most investors are hesitant and dare not make a move under the current market conditions. But the stock market is likely to never look back.
Then investors became anxious and almost missed 100 million. Seeing that the market has risen so well, it is finally confirmed that the bull market is back.
then invested heavily in pursuit.
As a result, as soon as I bought it, the stock market experienced a 10%-20% retracement adjustment.
Look, isn’t this both a trap and a trap?
Don’t think that they will buy if it falls again. The actual situation is that even if it falls again, they still dare not buy. This has been proven repeatedly by history. There are almost no exceptions!
See, what you worry about will always happen.
So you must think carefully and don't operate blindly. For example, aren't you worried about missing something? Then buy one-third first, then even if the stock market suddenly rises, you will not be completely short.
Buy the remaining parts in batches. Even if the stock market falls again, you don't have to be afraid. You still have a lot of chips in your hands anyway.
Why is everyone unwilling to do this?
is still too greedy in the final analysis. always wants to buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest point. This is also a black and white concept.
You see, the strategies I give are never black and white, they are both offensive and defensive. You don’t always want to make the most money!
Do you have enough money to make it?
Some investors particularly like to watch others analyze stocks and industries, and then buy heavily after reading them. This is still a black and white thing.
4. Look at other people’s analysis and combine it with your own situation
For example, Didn’t Buffett buy oil stocks recently?
Do you want to follow? If
follows, how many positions are you prepared to buy? How many times should I buy it?
What role do oil stocks play in your investment portfolio?
When are you going to sell it?
Can you bear its fluctuations?
You see, this is something we need to think about ourselves.
At the beginning of the year, I suggested that everyone hold banks, but I was scolded later.
But think about it objectively.From the beginning of the year to now, how many sectors have fallen less than banks?
If you have the ability to accurately choose the time, you can buy banks at the beginning of the year, sell when the banks make profits, and then accurately buy new energy on April 27.
Do you think you are God?
In the strategy I gave in the official account, I only allocated 5% of the position to the bank, so it doesn’t matter if it rises or not, as long as my overall portfolio is profitable in the end. These strategies can be tracked and recorded. It's just that you don't want to see the strategy, you just want to listen to a code and make money.
And in the second month, after I saw that the index oversold , I suggested changing banks to the index.
These are strategies, not judgments. Others' analysis is just a judgment. Even if you think it's good, you should hold it in a way that suits you. But ordinary investors don't think about this at all.
Ordinary investors only look for one thing when buying stocks or funds: they must rise.
But in fact, there must be falling assets in your investment portfolio. Yes, there must be. It's okay if
falls, it's impossible for all assets to rise at the same time. Your layout of assets is based on an overall view, rather than always focusing on whether a certain asset rises or falls.
Do all assets in Buffett's investment portfolio rise at the same time? How long have you been holding and BYD ? Can you have such patience?
Most people hold it for less than a month. As long as it doesn't rise, they will curse.
This is the reason why Buffett can become a stock god, he is confident enough! It’s just that it’s more tolerable than ordinary people! Can wait!
Generally speaking, no matter what we buy, we must put the asset we buy into our investment portfolio and analyze it from an overall perspective. Know the role and positioning of this asset in the portfolio.
This is why I often say, if I buy the same stock as you, I will eventually make money, but you may not necessarily make money. You might even lose money. Because our cognitions, investment portfolios and risk tolerances are different.
5. Summary
People who are in black and white usually cannot make money in the capital market. There are three categories of black and white:
1. Just want to hear accurate judgments, but the investment market is never accurate;
2. Just want to be full or short, buy the bottom and escape the top , but no one can accurately time it;
3. Just want Knowing when to buy and when to sell without ever considering the overall situation of your own portfolio is typical laziness and greed.
If you still have this problem, you must find a way to overcome it. You can start from three aspects:
1. Always consider, what if you make a wrong judgment?
2. Whatever you are worried about, you should focus on eliminating the corresponding risks, otherwise don’t buy;
3. Always think about the role of each asset from the overall perspective of the investment portfolio, including positions, the logic of buying and selling, and the overall situation. The proportion of assets, strategies for building positions, holding time, possible risks, etc.
In short, as an adult, don’t be so black and white! Most things in this world are ambiguous. Mature people don't argue about right and wrong. They only care about whether their investment portfolio is making money.
Isn’t there an old saying? The test of whether a person's intelligence is superior depends on whether his mind can accommodate two completely opposite views at the same time, and it will not hinder his life!
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