In 2001, Hu Yunsheng of Northeast Securities wrote a "Comparative Analysis of the Investment Value of Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye" (China Wine, 2001, (5th issue).)
The conclusion is: 
from the network
world There is no regret medicine on the market, and I dare not buy Moutai at that time. I don’t think most people think that Moutai is bad, but make a mistake that retail investors and even many people who think they have investment experience will make:
It is based on the price to determine the performance of the stock.
This is the anchoring effect. In your mind, you only remember to observe the price of this stock initially.
What you are thinking is that I will buy it after it drops or you think it is too high.
However, the facts are completely different from what you think, and Maotai stocks skyrocketed.
So, when Moutai started to rise from 36, how many people would dare to buy?
Of course, the retail investors who are now buying are also making another mistake, which is the superimposed anchoring effect of regret.
However, if you want to go back to the price of 2600, maybe 80, 70, 60, 50 are safe. Therefore,
stock price rise and fall is a game of probability.
stock price will not rise because it looks cheap, nor will it fall because the stock price looks high.
Buffett 's Berkshire rose to 400,000 shares, would you think it expensive?
Some stocks will be delisted after their face value is less than one yuan. Would you find it cheap?
So, don't judge stocks by price, but look at the trend or the quality of the company, and the potential future development.
Looking back at the analysis logic of the research report,There is a data mentioned in it that is the key:
Moutai's annual output is 3,500 tons (press: this data is incorrect, the original text is so), and #五粮液# output is 150,000 tons.
In fact, Moutai's reached 11,522 tons in 2004, breaking through 10,000 tons for the first time.
This is the reason why Moutai has risen sharply. There is demand in the market!
In 2020, the output will reach 50,200 tons.
Why will the stock price reach its peak in 2021?
Maybe the market feels that the output of #茂台酒# is enough.
(Disclaimer: This research is only the result of my own research, and does not have any effect or role in guiding investment. The securities mentioned in the article are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute any investment advice. Reprinting is prohibited without the author's permission. )
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