Powell made heavy remarks overnight. Although he said that he would Taper during the year, he emphasized that the relationship between debt reduction and interest rate hikes is not high, and the overall signal released is dovish. U.S. stocks hit new highs again in the short-term, the dollar index plunged rapidly, and the price of gold rose sharply. At the same time last night, there was new news about domestic vaccine development! Zhifei Biological released the Phase III clinical data of the new crown vaccine, and the protection rate of Delta reached 77.54%.
01
Fed: rate hike will not come quickly or
Friday, the annual Jackson Hole line At the meeting, Powell made a heavy speech, saying that although he said that he would taper (reducing asset purchases) during the year, he did not indicate the time and extent of debt reduction, and he emphasized that the correlation between debt reduction and interest rate hikes is not high, and the overall signal released is biased. Dovish.
Interest rate hike may not come soon. Powell pointed out at the meeting that it is appropriate to start debt reduction this year, but debt reduction will not directly signal the timing of a rate hike. It emphasized that the conditions that need to be met to raise interest rates are different from those for debt reduction, and are substantially more stringent. Until the goal of full employment and price stability continues to be achieved, the benchmark interest rate will remain at the current level.
In terms of inflation, Powell said that current inflation is a problem, but it is temporary. If persistently high inflation becomes a serious problem, the Fed will definitely respond.The current price stabilization target has reached "further substantive progress" and the job market has continued to improve, but there is still room for repair. The delta strain spreads further and there is still a long way to go before maximizing employment.
Powell also emphasized that even after the end of the bond purchase plan, the high reserves of long-term bonds will still maintain a loose financial environment.
02
dollar fell, US stocks to new highs
for Powell's speech, the market overall dovish interpretation bias, reduced during the year The bond purchase market had long been expected, and Powell clearly emphasized the weak correlation between interest rate hikes and bond purchases this time, alleviating market worries to a certain extent.
After Powell communicated with Taper while releasing the dovish signal's swing vague statement, the US dollar immediately dived, and the US dollar index went down short-term, closing down 0.38% to 92.69. U.S. Treasury interest rates also went down, and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields went down 4bps in the short-term.
Under the influence of the falling US dollar, the price of gold rose sharply. COMEX gold closed at US$1820.5 per ounce, closing up 1.41%.
US stocks have set new highs in short-term,The S&P 500 index rose 0.88% to close at 4,509.37 points, rising above 4,500 points for the first time.
The Nasdaq Index soared 1.23 points, a record high of 15129.5. The Dow rose 0.69% to close at 35455.8 points.
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agency expects the Fed or November open Taper
Jackson Hole global central banks will In the above, Fed Chairman Powell not only mentioned the possibility of Taper during the year, but also made dovish statements about interest rate hikes, Delta strains and the financial environment, and market institutions have also interpreted this.
CITIC Securities analysis believes that Powell’s speech at this meeting was a bit dovish under satisfactory conditions, and the current employment restoration is still the key to deciding Taper, and since the meeting did not give further information on Taper, then 9 The probability of announcing Taper at the monthly FOMC meeting is also lower than before.
The organization said,The biggest variable that currently affects the Fed's Taper is still the recovery of the US job market. If the U.S. non-agricultural data improves in August, the Fed will most likely release a clear Taper signal at the September interest rate meeting, and may announce Taper at the November interest rate meeting, which will be implemented at the end of the year or early next year. The scale of reduction may be a reduction of US$10 billion in Treasury bonds and US$5 billion in MBS at each interest rate meeting, and the reduction will be completed through 8 interest meeting meetings, with a duration of about 10 months.
CICC pointed out in the latest research report that Powell’s remarks indicate that the Fed’s judgment on Taper has gradually shifted from division to unity. Officials have reached a consensus on Taper during the year. However, the specific timing of opening Taper is still uncertain. In his speech, Powell did not hint at the September announcement of Taper, but instead expressed concern about the rebound of the Delta epidemic. From this point of view, Powell himself is not in a hurry to withdraw from easing, and he may agree that the time point for Taper to be announced is November. However, other officials believe that if conditions permit, the announcement of Taper in September is also appropriate The scale of debt purchases will be reduced this year, but it is expected that it will still be difficult to give a clear timing for the reduction of debt purchases at the September policy meeting. Prior to this, the market had already digested the Fed's reduction in debt purchases during the year, and Powell once again talked about the possibility of launching the reduction in debt purchases during the year, which is equivalent to landing a boot.
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There is new news about domestic vaccines _p5 _strong p140The delta strain has become the main variant of the spread of new coronary pneumonia in the world. On the evening of August 27, Zhifei announced that the recombinant new coronavirus vaccine developed in cooperation with the Institute of Microbiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has obtained key data from phase III clinical trials. Preliminary analysis results show that: the protective effect of Alpha mutant strain is 92.93%; the protective effect of Delta mutant strain is 77.54%.
It is worth noting that compared with the phase III clinical data of the major global approved new crown vaccines and emergency use of the new crown vaccine, the comprehensive protection rate of the recombinant new crown vaccine of Zhifei biological The variant strain has completed a complete Phase III clinical trial of the new crown vaccine.
announced that the clinical trial has been launched in China, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Ecuador since it started in December 2020. A total of 28,500 people were enrolled, of which 14,251 were in the vaccinated group and 14,249 were in the placebo group. After unblinding, the data showed that there were 221 confirmed cases, but the announcement did not disclose the number of confirmed cases in each group.
According to the announcement, the vaccine's protective efficacy against COVID-19 of any severity is 81.76%, which meets the WHO's requirements for the effectiveness of the new crown vaccine. Among them, the protection effect for severe COVID-19 and above cases and death cases is 100%.
Zhifei said that the key data results of the completed phase III clinical trial prove that the recombinant new coronavirus vaccine (CHO cell) has good safety and prevention in the population that meets the clinical trial protocol. Disease effect. According to the relevant regulations of national drug registration management, after the completion of phase III clinical research work, vaccine products need to go through procedures such as comprehensive review and registration verification. The company will actively promote the above-mentioned research and development projects in accordance with relevant national regulations.
Source: Eastern Fortune
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