In the first three quarters, although my country's economy fluctuated monthly, it continued to recover and develop overall. On October 24, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that preliminary calculations showed that in the first three quarters, the GDP of was 287,026.9 billion yuan. Based on the unchanging price of , increased by by 23% year-on-year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the first half of the year. From a month-on-month perspective, GDP grew by 3.9% in the third quarter, an increase of 3.5 percentage points, showing a recovery growth trend.
Industry experts pointed out that this year's epidemic has spread at multiple points, coupled with multiple factors that exceed expectations at home and abroad, slowing down economic growth. However, judging from the third quarter data, my country has gradually gotten rid of the influence of adverse factors, reflecting the resilience of China's economic development.
GDP rebounded beyond expectations in the third quarter
"my country's GDP growth rate reached 3% in the first three quarters, which is a recovery growth and is also in a reasonable range." Wang Xiaohong, deputy director of the Science and Technology Information Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, analyzed.
GDP in the first three quarters, by industry, the added value of the primary industry was 5477.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%; the added value of the secondary industry was 35018.9 billion yuan, a growth of 3.9%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 46530 billion yuan, a growth of 2.3%.
quarterly, the GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year and 0.4% in the second quarter. It is worth noting that from a month-on-month perspective, the GDP in the third quarter increased by 3.9%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points.
Specifically from September, from the production side, the added value of industrial enterprises above the scale of increased by 6.3% year-on-year, 2.1 percentage points faster than the previous month, industrial production accelerated, and the service industry slowed down due to the epidemic; from the demand side, exports and consumption continued to slow down, and the monthly growth rate of infrastructure investment fell, but the acceleration of manufacturing investment and the narrowing of the decline in real estate development investment provided support.
"This mainly depends on the gradual manifestation of various policy effects." Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, analyzed that in the past two months, the central government has decisively increased the implementation of macro-policy in response to economic fluctuations, promptly introduced a package of policies and continuation policies to stabilize the economy, and carried out supervision and services to local governments, basically reversing the economic downturn.
"The GDP growth rate rose sharply in the third quarter. On the one hand, the base in the second quarter was too low; on the other hand, due to the epidemic, international factors, etc., related projects and social demand in various parts of my country were affected to a certain extent, but they all recovered in the third quarter." Wang Peng, a researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, and a researcher at the Research Center of Intelligent Social Governance at Renmin University of China, added.
Main economic indicators are constantly recovering
my country has a population of more than 1.4 billion, the world's largest middle-income group, and has super-large-scale market advantages. Coupled with a complete industrial system, a complete industrial chain, and an increasingly modern infrastructure system, these basic conditions provide huge opportunities and broad market space for the development of various types of enterprises.
"From the current situation, the economy rebounded significantly in the third quarter. From a global perspective, China's economic performance is still outstanding, with moderate rise in consumer prices, which is in sharp contrast to the high global inflation, the employment situation is generally stable, the balance of international payments is basically balanced, and foreign exchange reserves remained above US$3 trillion. From the perspective of multiple economic indicators, the performance of my country's economy is still outstanding." At the first press conference of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held on October 17, Zhao Chenxin, member of the Party Leadership Group and deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said, "With the efficiency of the overall development, the performance of China's economy is still outstanding." All work on epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development has been steadily promoted, a package of policies to stabilize the economy has been continuously implemented, and the continuous policies have been decisively introduced. Major economic indicators such as industry, service industry, investment, and consumption have been continuously recovered, and the overall recovery and development trend has been maintained. "
" my country's GDP growth rate in the first three quarters reached 3%, which is generally in line with expectations." Yao Xin, Secretary-General of the Commercial Industry Committee of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said that due to the spread of the epidemic this year, especially in the second quarter, some key cities were affected by the epidemic, coupled with multiple factors exceeding expectations at home and abroad, it has slowed down economic growth. However, judging from the third quarter data, it has gradually gotten rid of the influence of adverse factors, reflecting the strong resilience of my country's economic development.
Consumption and exports still have uncertainties
"From the economic situation in the first three quarters, my country's economy is positive, fundamentals have not changed, and GDP data is expected to be better in the fourth quarter." Hong Tao , director of the Institute of Business Economics of Beijing University of Technology and Commerce, believes that my country's economic development still faces some uncertainties.
Wang Peng further pointed out that first of all, in the third quarter, consumption in the "three horses" of driving the economy continues to weaken, and exports and investment are increasing. If the intensity of subsequent investment cannot keep up, the driving force for GDP will also weaken. Secondly, from the perspective of international industrial chains and supply chains, international conflicts and cyclical factors may lead to a reduction in external demand. Finally, from a domestic perspective, there is uncertainty about whether the CNC policies of enterprises have been implemented, whether they have built national unified market , and whether there are more accurate epidemic prevention and control across the country and stabilize the economy large-scale .
At the export level, one of the "three horses" that drives GDP growth, Yao Xin proposed that since global economy is about to enter a tightening cycle, we must actively respond to the possible contraction of exports. "The current downward pressure on the economy is relatively high. Under the influence of the epidemic, the global development prospects are still unclear, and the domestic production and consumption side are still lacking confidence."
" three-horse " all have room for strength
How should my country's economy work in the fourth quarter? In this regard, Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Policy Research Association, suggested that in the context of insufficient consumer demand, it is necessary to stabilize the bulk of consumption; in the context of the fact that the equipment manufacturing industry has repeatedly exceeded 10%, the infrastructure investment in , which increased by 8.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters, still has room for efforts; small and medium-sized enterprises should be encouraged to develop, thereby ensuring employment and boosting confidence.
At the macro policy level, Yao Xin suggested that economic stimulus measures can be introduced from the perspective of repairing the damaged confidence in key industries, expand consumption, drive production with consumption, and drive internal circulation; from an international perspective, although many countries have experienced historic high inflation, the Federal Reserve has successively carried out large-scale hikes in , but global demand is still at a high level. Seizing the opportunity of global supply chain recovery, improving export structure, and occupying a more favorable industrial position, which also plays an important role in driving economic growth. In addition, continuing to increase investment in emerging technology fields such as energy storage, artificial intelligence can also further drive economic growth.
Beijing Business Daily reporter noticed that under the influence of a package of economic stabilization policies, although my country's economic operation has difficulties and challenges, it is even more full of opportunities.
"At present, policy-based development-based financial tools have effectively supported the construction of infrastructure in key areas, and support for equipment renewal and transformation in weak areas of the economy and society is also increasing. Recently, we have done a lot of monitoring. The orders for key equipment such as energy equipment, petrochemical equipment, mining machinery, , engineering machinery, CNC machine tools, industrial robots, etc. are all increasing significantly, which is very gratifying. These all provide rare opportunities for related upstream and downstream enterprises." Zhao Chenxin said that my country's economy is showing strong resilience and huge potential.
Beijing Business Daily reporter Fang Binnan Lu Shanshan
