October 2022 is January when the real estate market embarks on a new road. The "giant ship" that cannot sink, if it continues to set sail, it will become more and more stable.
1 and four departments made their voices
On October 24 and 25, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Central Bank of China 5, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange held meetings respectively to make arrangements to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market, stock market and bond markets.
People's Bank of China and Foreign Exchange clearly requires strengthening support for key areas, weak links, industries and groups affected by the epidemic, ensuring the implementation and effectiveness of the policies that have been issued, and studying and introducing new policy measures. Better meet the rigid and improved housing needs of residents, and increase efforts to promote the work of "guaranteeing and stabilizing people's livelihood". The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission emphasized that under the background of innovative development and steady transformation of the real economy, the capital market has long-term investment value and a good foundation for maintaining stable operation will not change the China Securities Regulatory Commission's instructions to improve the multi-level market system and improve the high-frequency resonance of the capital market function supervision layer.
This time, "one bank, , two sessions, , one game" has a high frequency of two days The statement is again at this critical juncture after the conference, which has a strong signal significance for the real estate market, stock market and bond market. For the real estate market, under the premise of unwavering "housing for living, not speculation", the overall environment this year is particularly relaxed, but the bottom line has been adhered to. At the same time, it did not stimulate the real estate market to boost the economy like in 2008 and 2015, but put real estate under the framework of macroeconomic , and put real estate in the positioning of the real economy. The thing is to build a new development model of real estate.
2. Real Estate Economy
The relationship between real estate and the economy is complex. The real estate industry, which has developed rapidly for 20 or 30 years, contains too many financial bubble risks and cannot be allowed to "grow wildly".
"House to live in, not speculation" was proposed as early as 2016, but the most severe regulation is It was still last year that the real estate "seven inches" were directly stuck from the financial end. After a year of real estate cold winter, the risk of the financial bubble in the real estate market was substantially reversed. This regulatory result is hard-won, so it should be cherished very much. The "giant ship" of real estate cannot sink. After all, it is complicated to affect hundreds of industries upstream and downstream, but it cannot travel too fast. The best way is to slow down its driving speed, gradually return to normal speed, and continue to act as a ballast and stability for the development of the national economy. Setting device.
There was a time when real estate was called a "room pot". It was tasteless to eat, but it was a pity to throw it away. However, from this year's positioning, the "room pot" of real estate finally had to be picked up. After all, it accounts for 27% of the total GDP and is still a pillar industry of the national economy. However, the previous real estate development model has brewed great financial risks, and no one can afford the consequences of the bursting of the bubble. But it cannot The best way to actively puncture the bubble is to continue to " boil frog in warm water", slowly squeeze out real estate bubble until the day the housing prices softly land.
3. The future real estate market will move towards
How to develop the real estate economy in the future? The high-frequency voice of the four departments in two days has been set very clearly to build a new model of real estate development.
l1
On the one hand, the most important thing at the moment is to complete the task of "securing and subsidizing the building" with quality and quantity. The four departments stated that the development of the real estate economy is placed in the macroeconomic environment, and no longer only considering from the perspectives of housing purchase demand and housing purchase cost. Previously, the central bank and the China Securities Regulatory Commission also supported "securing and subsidizing the building" from practical actions, and the financing channels of real estate companies are more relaxed. After this high-level meeting, the future development direction of real estate will be clearer, and various local solutions to the suspension of construction projects will continue to be implemented. The work of ensuring the delivery of the building is expected to make more substantial progress.
On the other hand, real estate financial risks are only fundamentally reversed, but there are still hidden debts, so it is still not to be taken lightly to prevent and resolve financial risks. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first nine months of this year, the year-on-year decline in commercial housing sales area and sales volume have narrowed, and housing prices are still falling. In fact, this is a good thing. As long as the decline in housing prices is still in a controllable range, it means that the real estate bubble is still squeezed out.In the future, while strictly adhering to the bottom line of financial risks, financing channels will be further broadened and expanded to high-level institutional opening, and the virtuous cycle of real estate is expected to accelerate.
To sum up, the four departments have spoken out at high frequency in two days, setting the tone for the new model of real estate development, and the future of the real estate market is promising.
