1. Review: Since the beginning of May, it was clearly reminded that the Science and Technology Innovation Board leads the "future core assets" Changniu
0514 "The Centennial Celebration of the Market After the Golden Pit, the Science and Technology Innovation Board Leads the "Future Core Assets" Changniu" reminded investors to lay out "future core assets" Assets”, innovative high-growth small and medium-sized “little giants” have greater opportunities.
6-month mid-term strategy report "Core Assets Embracing the Future" The core assets that have been won in the past few years are no longer cheap, and the "Science and Technology Bull" is in the ascendant.
Second, the short-term sentiment in the science and technology innovation-related sectors was overheated, and the “interim report season” took the opportunity to adjust and adjust to be healthier.
Intensive disclosure of the beautiful performance forecasts of the companies on the Sci-tech Innovation Board and ChiNext in early July further boosted the market for the technology innovation sector in early July ; However, the current Sci-tech Innovation Board, GEM companies have entered a stage of relatively crowded transactions.
As of 0714, the GEM index’s 5-day trading volume accounted for 23.7% of all A’s, which was the 97% quantile since 2013; the 5-day trading volume of the Science and Technology 50 Index accounted for 4.9% relative to all-A, which was in the index 99% quantile since inception.
After the mid-term report on July 15, the intensive period, especially the performance period in August, is often prone to shock adjustments when long-term ideals and short-term performance reality meet.
3. Follow-up risk factors at home and abroad may resonate in August, forming a near-miss disturbance Risk attack period. In particular, there are three major stock debt risks - local debt risk, real estate debt risk, and financial institution credit risk.
However, the recent RRR cut by the People's Bank of China and the executive meeting of the State Council have released clear signals that the country has taken precautions against the impact of credit risk when defusing existing risks, and is using anesthesia for surgery.
Secondly, US bond yields may rebound in August-September. Taper is expected to disturb the sentiment of the capital market, but it will be difficult to recover, and there is no systemic risk in overseas liquidity.
1) The U.S. CPI in June exceeded expectations. In July, inflation may still hover at a high level, and the economic decline is not obvious. With the decline in the savings rate, the U.S. unemployment rate may be expected to improve slightly. Therefore, in August and September, the U.S. Taper and other policies have increased. Tight hawkish remarks and expectations may be further fermented. We judge that the long-end yields of US bonds may rebound in August-September, forming short-term disturbances.
However, considering that this round of U.S. economic growth and inflation momentum is likely to peak in the second quarter, U.S. interest rates will remain low in the medium and long term, and the February-March-style surge will not be repeated in the second half of the year.
2) Discussions on the U.S. debt ceiling starting at the end of July will be a variable. Special measures to rein in the debt ceiling could lapse when Congress recesses in August.
Fourth and monthly market volatility is a good opportunity for the long-term layout of the Kechuang cattle
First of all, under the long-term background of the protracted battle between the great powers, the Kechuang cattle have just started. In the future, China and the United States will conduct economic competition around the three highlands of technology, advanced manufacturing and domestic consumption.
Secondly, in the mid-term, the Jugla cycle of science and technology-related industries has begun. In the second half of the year, it is expected to benefit from the implementation of policy dividends in the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan".
Third, based on the medium and long term, with the "housing and living without speculation", breaking the just-in-trade, and the net value of wealth management products, China's social wealth allocation equity assets is in the ascendant.
5. Investment strategy: pay attention to cost performance, do not chase high prices in the short term, and wait for the shock before laying out . The high-growth star track is still the three major directions. In the fields of science and technology, advanced manufacturing, biomedicine, and medical aesthetics, shocks such as "Longyi" in selected segments can continue to increase positions.
Secondly, the follow-up assets of the star track should pay attention to cost performance, prevent stampede, and reverse timing.
Third, pay attention to cost-effective assets, especially "value stocks +x" that have received insufficient market attention, including high-quality stocks that benefit from "double carbon" and usher in new growth logic in traditional cyclical industries; subject to credit risk or industry supervision High-quality growth that is "killed by mistake" due to the impact of risks; the transformation of traditional manufacturing industry embraces technological innovation.
Risk warning: The global economic growth rate is down; China and the US monetary policy easing is less than expected; the risk of big power game
Source: Futu Securities
