導讀
後疫情時代，日本經濟正逐步擺脫自20世紀90年代末以來持續的通貨緊縮和低通脹。10月3日，日本銀行政策委員會委員野口朝日探討了日本當前的經濟政策，對當今日本的經濟活動、物價動態以及貨幣政策的調整進行了解讀，並強調了擺脫經濟「零常態」的重要性。
在經濟活動方面，得益於於國內外經濟形勢的發展與政策的實施，日本經濟在全球通脹環境下逐漸擺脫長期低通脹狀態，接近實現2%的物價穩定目標。一方面，全球經濟正趨於「軟著陸」——即在不顯著提高失業率的情況下成功抑制通脹。另一方面，日本國內消費增長也為日本經濟復甦發出了積極信號。而在應對通脹方面，日本正向更穩定的通脹過渡，物價上漲從受進口成本推動轉向由工資增長推動。隨著全球通脹趨穩，日本消費者物價指數（cpi）增幅逐步穩定，工資成為服務價格上漲新動力。該變化表明，日本通脹壓力逐漸由外部轉向內部。
貨幣政策方面，日本央行的最新政策顯示，日本正從長期的大規模貨幣寬鬆轉向更加傳統的貨幣政策框架，以適應後疫情時代通脹和國內工資增長的變化。該政策轉變的一個關鍵環節是央行正逐步減少對日本國債（jgb）的購買量，旨在恢復市場深度。這一調整為金融市場提供了更大的運作自由度，長期利率將由市場主導。央行的目標是將通脹穩定在2%左右，促進工資增長，以推動經濟可持續增長。值得注意的是，2024年7月，日本央行政策性利率的上調導致日元升值、股市下跌，部分原因是市場對經濟狀況的看法與央行實際判斷之間存在分歧，且就業數據疲軟加劇了波動。該事件反映出兩大問題：一是央行需充分理解市場的政策預期，二是央行應通過加強與市場的溝通政策調整的分歧，以避免市場動蕩。
最後，要實現經濟可持續增長，日本央行需要擺脫價格和工資「零常態」，推動社會對價格和工資形成新認知。從上世紀90年代泡沫經濟崩潰到2021年疫情後復甦前，日本經濟長期處於低名義增長狀態，物價、工資和名義gdp幾乎沒有明顯上升，「零常態」讓企業和家庭普遍認為價格和工資不會上漲。同時，當工資和物價處於「零常態」，企業就會削減在節省勞動力和提高生產率上的固定投資，導致社會技術創新受限。疫情後全球通脹壓力削弱了日本商品和服務的價格剛性，價格變動逐漸從0%區間向2-4%轉移，「零常態」正在消退，工資水平也逐見起色。在這種情況下，日本企業管理者的看法開始轉變，心理上做好了在必要時漲價漲薪的準備。然而，仍有部分消費者堅信價格不會上漲。消費者觀念的徹底轉變仍然需要一定的時間，在此之前，繼續耐心維持寬鬆的金融條件至關重要。
以下為英文原文（節選）：
economic activity, prices, and monetary policy in japan
speech at a meeting with local leaders in nagasaki
noguchi asahi
member of the policy board, bank of japan
03 october 2024
ii. monetary policy
a. shifting away from large-scale monetary easing and its significance
next, i will discuss the bank of japan』s policy conduct. from the late 1990s, japan』s economy suffered from what later came to be called the 「japan disease,」 in which economic and employment growth remained sluggish while prices and nominal wages continued to decline.to overcome this prolonged deflation and achieve its 2 percent price stability target, the bank in april 2013 introduced quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (qqe) as a large-scale monetary easing policy. subsequently, to enhance monetary easing in response to developments in economic activity and prices, the bank decided to implement qqe with a negative interest rate in january 2016 and qqe with yield curve control in september of the same year. as a result, the positive output gap widened, and the employment situation improved substantially before the covid-19 pandemic (chart 8). moreover, although the year-on-year rate of increase in the cpi was still lower than the 2 percent price stability target, it was at least no longer continuously negative.
at the monetary policy meeting (mpm) held in march 2024, the bank judged it was now within sight that the price stability target of 2 percent would be achieved in a sustainable and stable manner. it thus decided to discontinue its unconventional monetary easing policies and shift back to a conventional policy framework, in which the degree of monetary accommodation is adjusted by guiding the money market rate (chart 9). the bank made this shift for the following reasons. first, due to the impact of global inflation following the pandemic, japan』s inflation rate continued to exceed 2 percent, which also began to raise the underlying inflation trend. second, in the process of economic recovery from the pandemic, the tightness in the labor market that had already materialized before the pandemic became even more pronounced, leading to a distinct rise in nominal wages. this means that japan』s economy has finally started to move away from an economy with a 「zero norm,」 in which inflation and wage growth rates of virtually zero become the norm. i will elaborate on this point later.
the bank will gradually adjust its current monetary accommodation, while carefully monitoring price developments to make sure that the year-on-year rate of increase in the cpi stabilizes at around 2 percent, accompanied by wage increases. the primary objective is to reach a potential growth path, in which inflation of around 2 percent is achieved in a stable manner, on as smooth a trajectory as possible. the bank』s march 2024 decision means that the role of such adjustments to monetary accommodation falls exclusively to the money market rate as the policy interest rate.
the shift away from large-scale monetary easing also has a secondary effect. it restores a degree of freedom to financial markets, which had been under significant constraint due to the monetary easing policy, in a manner that avoids market disruption. the bank had increased its involvement in the japanese government bond (jgb) market through policies such as qqe, the negative interest rate policy, and yield curve control. the reason for this was that, with money market rates -- the target for conventional monetary policy -- having almost reached the lower bound, the bank had sought to employ long-term interest rates as the main channel for influencing financial conditions. the upshot was that the bank came to hold a large amount of jgbs on the asset side of its balance sheet. since the policy shift in march 2024, the bank has left the formation of long-term interest rates and the yield curve entirely to the market. it therefore needs to reduce its jgb purchases, albeit at a gradual pace, to ensure that there is sufficient depth in the market for jgb transactions, involving a large number of market participants.
what i would like to emphasize is that the purpose of reducing jgb purchases is solely to restore market depth, and not to shrink the bank』s balance sheet or adjust monetary accommodation. this entails two aspects. first, unlike the period of scarce reserve balances prior to the global financial crisis in 2008, when the bank guided and maintained money market rates exclusively through money market operations, the bank now controls short-term interest rates through the interest rate it applies to current account balances held by financial institutions at the bank. thus, monetary policy conduct is essentially independent of the bank』s balance sheet. second, even if the extent of the reduction in the bank』s jgb purchases leads to some degree of monetary tightening or easing, these effects will ultimately be absorbed by an adjustment in money market rates. in other words, it can be said that, in terms of this policy tool, the exit from large-scale monetary easing has already been completed.
