|Wen Chung son
I remember Duan Yongping once said that buying a company’s stock is actually buying the cash flow of the company in the future. How to understand this sentence? In other words, to buy stocks, you need to buy companies with strong cash flow, such as Moutai, such as Apple?
Companies like Apple and Moutai have so much cash in their hands that they don’t know how to spend it, so they either pay dividends to shareholders or continue to invest money in other areas.
Moutai is the king of A-shares, and Apple is the world’s largest technology company by market capitalization. Let’s talk about Apple today. At present, Apple is the world’s largest technology company by market capitalization, with a market value of over US$1.99 trillion. So the question is, Apple is very strong, so is there a bubble in Apple's current stock price, let's try to analyze it briefly?
Why is Apple the world's largest technology company by market value? Luo Yonghao, the founder of
Hammer, once said that Apple has not invented any technology in the field, but is just a solution integrator. Although this is straightforward, it does not prevent Apple from becoming the world's largest technology company.
How can we have today's mobile Internet era without the iPhone of that year? Whether you admit it or not, Apple has indeed used technology to change human lives. From the perspective of investment, Apple can become the world's largest technology company by market capitalization. On the one hand, Apple's current products are indeed at the forefront of the times, and on the other hand, Apple is too profitable.
A company monopolizes more than half of the industry's (global) profits. Before Apple, humans have almost no precedent.
Apple is doing a good business. Investment first depends on the business model. It is necessary to understand whether the company can make enough money throughout its life cycle. Apple has strong cash flow, with hundreds of billions of dollars in hand. I don't know where to spend the cash!
Today, Apple has monopolized more than half of the profits of the global mobile phone industry for many years. How many institutions and retail investors are crazy about such profitable companies!
Apple's core competitiveness?
First, the charisma of the leader
is undeniable. In the Jobs era, Jobs was Apple's core competitiveness. Jobs is one of the most creative geniuses in the world. He knows how to innovate in products and how to satisfy users.
and after Jobs? Apple’s core competitiveness is Cook. Many people complain about Apple’s inability to innovate in recent years. The main reason is that Cook does not understand innovation. Cook is eating Steve Jobs. Is this really true for
? In fact, it’s not that Apple’s innovation capabilities have declined, but that the smartphone industry has determined that any industry has its four cycles of beginning, peak, stability, and decline, but now everyone is in a stable period. There are a lot of innovations in Android phones, but most of them are not epoch-making innovations, and more are pseudo-innovations!
On the contrary, Apple has built an industrial ecological layout and integrated global supply chains under the leadership of Cook over the years. This has given Apple a "pricing power" in the market. The market value of Apple has also been since Cook took over. , The rapid improvement. Isn’t this the credit of Cook?
Second, the charm of products
After talking about people, let’s look at Apple’s products again. In recent years, the rise of domestic mobile phones has affected the sales of Apple mobile phones? In fact, there is not much impact.
Apple mobile phones and pads are basically unlikely to be subverted, and even their share will increase. Nowadays, besides the expensive price of buying hardware, you can also charge for software services, and it is not cheap and has a stronger monopoly.
People look down on Apple every year, but people get slapped every year. Is that true?
Why is there a huge bubble in Apple's stock price?
Apple is a US technology company, listed on the US stock market. If Apple’s current stock price is in a bubble, it has to be said from the US stock market.
Since 2009, U.S. stocks have continued to be bullish, and it has been almost 12 years now. Then why have US stocks continued to bullish in the past 12 years? I think there are several points for reference;
1. The bull market in U.S. stocks was promoted by U.S. companies issuing bonds and borrowing money to repurchase stocks, and this was largely due to the low interest rates of the Federal Reserve after the financial crisis.The policy is actually a big release of water. Just like this year, the epidemic has had a great impact on the economies of Europe and the United States. However, the US stock market still hit a new high after multiple circuit breakers. This is the result of the release of water. US investment in real estate The value of U.S. is not high. Most of the money and even the global money goes to US stocks, and the US stocks are naturally pushed up.
2. Although US stocks have been rising for so many years, they are all high-quality companies, such as Apple, Tesla, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft, which can be said to hold up the US stock market.
What is the "Matthew Effect"? That is, the stronger the stronger. For investors, they will choose good quality stocks. Even if the stock price is cheaper, no one cares about junk stocks. Apple is such a good standard in the eyes of investors. Let you choose. , Will you choose Apple?
So saying that there is a bubble in Apple's stock price, in fact, it means that there is a bubble in the U.S. stock market. Is there a bubble in the U.S. stock market? Of course there is a bubble in U.S. stocks. Now it is not 11 years ago. This year, many people all over the world are printing money. Why should you pay for the US?
I think 2021 will be a "watershed" for the U.S. stock market, meaning that it will go from the bull to the bear. I won't elaborate on this here! Z2z
writes at the end: The stock market is sometimes really counter-logic. The European and American economies are hit by the epidemic. Even after the epidemic subsides, the economy will be difficult to repair in the short term. Since there is no hope in the long run, these companies will be affected. These days, Sun Zhengyi In urging everyone to make preparations for the winter, many people do not take precautions, but in fact, they still have to "precautions before they happen"! The huge bubble in the
stock market can be roughly divided into three stages, as follows; in the early stage of the
bubble, some investors, including well-known investment institutions, questioned one after another. In the middle of the
bubble, as some well-known investors and institutions were repeatedly beaten up by rising stock prices, fewer people dared to question. In the late stage of the
bubble, in the face of a huge bubble, the entire market was not questioning, but looking for the rationality of the bubble from various angles. Even the institutions that questioned the bubble in the early stage of the bubble joined the ranks of doing more to further inflate the bubble.
There is an old saying in China, "The extreme of things must be reversed, and the extreme of prosperity will decline"! The U.S. stock market has been bullish for so many years, and it is time to stop. If the U.S. stock market stops, then technology companies like Apple, Tesla and Microsoft will bear the brunt.
So, from the point of view of US stocks, if there is a bubble in US stocks, then Apple will have a big bubble.
Of course, everyone was enjoying the bubble before the bubble burst! I don’t know what you think?
