The current smartphone craze is slowly fading, and its substitutes may appear in the future. The emergence of new technologies has been predicted by giants, so will everyone believe this news? In fact, from the surface, the smartphone market is still very hot, and every man, woman, old and young has one. Even the elderly who are latecomers have learned to use it. How can such a huge profit market decline? However, it has been an iron law since ancient times that prosperity must inevitably decline. Those market industry giants have a keen sense of smell and have long been aware of the unusual taste.
In March this year, Spanish media reported that Bill Gates of the United States Microsoft made a bold prediction for smartphones. Technology that will replace smartphones will soon appear. So what technology can be so powerful? Is Bill Gates’ prediction true or false?
Smartphone craze hits
It has been 49 years since the world's first mobile phone was launched. It was made by Motorola in 1973. It was as big as two bricks. It was very difficult to use and could only be used for long-distance calls. Later, mobile phones gradually became smaller and had more and more functions, and various trendy clamshell phones, slider phones, etc. appeared.
has gone through several rounds of technological changes before we have the current smartphone. It can be said that the development history of mobile phones is a history of entrepreneurship. During this period, various early leaders have been constantly changing, from Motorola to Nokia and Siemens , and then to Sony , Samsung , Apple and Huawei , etc., is almost Everyone has one.
Those industries that have survived the baptism have always been chasing the trend of the times, and the emergence of smartphones has greatly changed our lifestyle. People cannot imagine life without it, which can be said to have produced a huge impact. Dependence is very common even now.
And many mobile phone manufacturers are struggling, competing with each other and falling into involution. New models are launched almost every season, designed to meet different needs of different groups of people. This kind of benign involution is actually cruel.
Many pioneers have been overtaken by latecomers, and it is almost impossible to stand up again. For example, Nokia's past glory and today's dusk are a vivid and realistic example. So what will the next technology that inherits smartphones be like? What about black technology?
In fact, no one knows specifically, but the industry giants have the feeling that if they don't prepare early, they may never have the opportunity in the future. So what makes the giants so anxious, is it because the smartphone market is declining?
The craze for smartphones has subsided
As early as 2017, Jack Ma said that smartphones are likely to be eliminated in 5 years. But now that 5 years have passed, the smartphone market is still quite impressive, but overall The industry's decline is real.
According to some latest data analysis, in the mobile phone quarterly tracking report, in the first quarter of 2022, my country's smartphone market shipped 74.2 million units, a decrease of 14.1% compared to the past, and this is only domestic. If placed in the world Judging from the above, global smartphone shipments are only 310 million units, and the rate has continued to decline, barely maintaining around 12.8%.
Judging from the market trends in recent years, the global annual rate will continue to decline, and there will even be a significant market shrinkage. Because today's consumers are not too obsessed with mobile phones, the frequency of replacing them with new mobile phones is getting less and less. , the main reason is that the income really cannot keep up with the expenses, and many people have an attitude towards using mobile phones as long as they can be used.
But this was not the case in the past. Judging from the popularity of Apple at that time, we gained a lot of so-called Apple fans. Most of them would buy one of them, forming a new trend. But now many people have passed that There is a lot of enthusiasm in the stock market. A mobile phone can be used for more than 1 to 3 years, and an exaggerated 4 to 5 years. There are many reasons for this phenomenon.
One is because manufacturers compete with each other to make mobile phones more durable and playable. The other is that the functions of new mobile phones have hardly changed, but the appearance design has been changed, but the price has become unaffordable. Many people have weighed and repeatedly said that it is not worth it, the price/performance ratio is too low or they cannot afford it. In addition, coupled with the impact of the epidemic in recent years, many people do not have stable income, so they have lost their spending power and suppressed their desire to consume.
In fact, no matter what the reasons are, there is no way to stop the tide of replacement. On the one hand, mobile phone manufacturers continue to introduce new products, and consumers have become smarter. On the other hand, shipments continue to decline. It can be seen that the smartphone market It is saturated, and may even decline, and it will be difficult to return to its glory days. So what new technologies will be available after smartphones die?
The future alternative technology for smartphones
Judging from the current situation, it is likely to be virtual VR technology, such as various eye bracelets, or implantable devices. Of course, there is also the metaverse theory proposed. What Bill Gates is most optimistic about is tattoo design. VR technology is simply virtual reality. By closing our senses, we put ourselves in a virtual world and create a feeling of being in reality.
And with regard to the emergence of smart bracelets, many products have been launched, most of which can only be used to monitor human exercise, sleep and health conditions. The electronic tattoo technology mentioned earlier needs to be combined with biotechnology to complement each other and form new advantages. It is different from the implanted type that people imagine, but it is like smearing on the skin, and contains nano-trackers to receive information.
There are similar technologies like this in our country. Last year, several well-known universities jointly launched one, but it was different from what Bill Gates said. This tattoo technology is mainly used to monitor health. Even if the skin is inappropriate, it can be completely covered and has very good ductile adhesion. The main principle is a tiny integrated circuit sensor that sends out subtle signals from the human body.
is described as being able to remotely control the robot hand . Such electronic tattoos may have similar principles to VR, requiring people to provide neural information to successfully interact with the Internet and become virtual reality. Compared with smartphones, technology can eliminate the need for hands-on steps, and it can also make various existences closely connected. So why does Bill Gates make this prediction? Is it to pave the way for this technology and suppress the smartphone market?
Regarding the potential of new technologies, there is still two debates on whether they can successfully take over. However, this will only be verified in the future. No matter what kind of technology, we are always prepared and there is no way we will fall behind other countries. But from the current point of view, it is very difficult for these devices to completely replace smartphones, because they can barely keep up with them in terms of functionality, but they are far behind in terms of operability and playability.
Even if VR game technology is promising, it is still in an exploratory development stage, and there will often be a lot of inconveniences. So are smartphones really invincible? This is not absolute. After all, a few decades ago we did not expect that things like smartphones would overwhelm all walks of life and become mainstream.
As the times continue to develop and change, it is only a matter of time before smartphones fall from the altar. In the future imagined by mankind, there may be more black technologies coming out, competing for the throne of the times. As for how to break through the limitations of , it still depends on the efforts of scientists. So what new technologies will be available in the future that can replace smartphones?
