Introduction: It has been nearly three years since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic. So how many people have the new crown virus and its mutant strain infected in such a long time?
According to relevant statistics, the total number of people is about 618 million (including secondary infection of or multiple infections, including data from my country). The number of people this time is nearly 6.6 million. However, a latest study found that it is likely that the actual number of infections and deaths are 5 times higher.
From the raging epidemic So far, this pandemic has had a huge impact on the economy, society, environment, and healthcare.
Recently, the global new crown infection and death have increased, because the virus continues to mutate, and its transmission ability, and immune escape have become stronger.
At the same time, the domestic epidemic has also shown a trend of multi-point sporadic local aggregation. Due to the short incubation period of the virus, a small number of infected people have already caused hidden transmission in the family community and other groups when the nuclear test is positive.
01
Will the new coronavirus be popular seasonally?
According to EFE Barcelona, a study by the Global Health Institute of Barcelona, Spain shows that the new coronavirus is a seasonal disease, and the spread of the new coronavirus is closely related to low temperature and low humidity, similar to the flu caused by the coronavirus and other respiratory diseases.
In addition, the research published in the Journal of Natural Computational Science also emphasized that the spread speed and intensity of aerosol is very high, so it is very necessary to take "air hygiene" and promote measures.
The scientific community also believes that the new coronavirus does not act like a seasonal virus similar to the influenza virus, because the new coronavirus seems to be spreading with the same intensity and strength throughout the year.
Before this, research using theoretical models also believed that climate is not a very important factor. However, according to many observations, the initial transmission of the virus occurred between 30 and 50 degrees north latitude, and the humidity and temperature here are still relatively low.
Related reports indicate that the initial stage of the spread of the new coronavirus in 162 regions is closely related to local temperature and humidity. The correlation between these factors and the transmission rate of the new coronavirus was analyzed. The higher transmission rate is related to low temperature and low humidity.
also proves that higher propagation rates are related to lower temperature and humidity.
Researchers also conducted an analysis on this. The association between climate and disease was analyzed. It shows that the first wave, second wave and third wave of the pandemic had a consistent pattern. Therefore, relevant experts believe that the first wave of the epidemic weakens with the increase of temperature and humidity, and the second wave increases with the decrease of temperature and humidity.
However, this model has been broken on all continents in the summer season, which is actually related to a variety of factors, including the large number of young people's concentrated travel and the widespread use of air conditioners.
Researchers observed the same correlation when analyzing the correlation between the spread of the new coronavirus and the climate in the southern hemisphere countries where the outbreak occurred later.
The climate effect is more obvious at temperatures between 12 and 18°C and humidity levels between 4 and 12 grams per cubic meter, although the researchers also emphasized that these are only indicative ranges due to limited recording time.
Finally, this study used epidemiological model to show that incorporating temperature into the transmission rate can better predict the rise and fall of each wave of the epidemic, especially the first and third waves of the epidemic in Europe will be more obvious.
In addition, researchers also show that this seasonality may promote the spread of the new coronavirus. Because the size of aerosols will be reduced under low humidity conditions, thereby increasing the airborne transmission of seasonal viruses such as influenza.
02
about how will the global COVID-19 epidemic end? Expert analysis: There may be three outcomes.
The first is that when the virus is infected to a certain extent, it will stop spreading
The achievements made in China in this epidemic can be seen enough. We have found very effective intervention measures to prevent the spread of the disease. Other countries are also learning from China.
If the virus is allowed to spread in the population, almost everyone will be infected, then the body's immune system will also produce an organism that can compete with the virus. Regardless of whether the body accepts it or not, when the virus is out of control, people will continue to be infected, and then passive herd immunity to will appear.
The second type is spread from the world to "endemic diseases"
The so-called endemic diseases refer to diseases that continue to occur in a certain region or population. For example, people in Guangdong are prone to gout, and people in Hunan are prone to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases . The common cold is also a very typical endemic diseases. The SARS COV-2 virus that causes novel coronavirus pneumonia seems to have lived with us for a long time and may cause seasonal respiratory diseases like other common human coronaviruses.
The third type is that humans and viruses coexist for a long time and adapt to each other
Professor Jin from the School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Hong Kong once predicted the worst outcome of the virus, and the virus will eventually coexist with humans and will never disappear. The purpose of the
virus is not to kill people, but to keep itself alive. At present, we know that the new coronavirus is a virus with a very high infection rate, with a mortality rate exceeding 10% in some countries.
03
Can wearing a mask effectively protect the infection of the new coronavirus?
Relevant experts believe that wearing masks can play a very good protective role, but the premise is that medical masks or N95 masks, the protection of ordinary masks is relatively weak, but they also have a certain effect.
As we all know, the novel coronavirus is highly contagious and mainly spreads through respiratory droplets, so wearing a mask is a very effective preventive measure. At the same time, the virus can also be transmitted by contacting the surface of contaminated objects.
In daily life, you must pay attention to hygiene, wash your hands frequently, do not touch everywhere, pay attention to personal hygiene, do not go to places with a large flow of people, pay attention to indoor ventilation, pay attention to regular disinfection of the room, and use alcohol , 84 disinfectant , etc. to disinfect.
