According to foreign media reports, according to a new study by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium (New Crown Modeling Consortium), in October 2020, a highly infectious SARS-CoV- 2 The variant has been spreading unknowingly in the United States for several months. Scientists first discovered this virus in the UK in early December. This highly infectious and more lethal mutant virus is believed to have originated in the UK.
The latest research pointed out that when scientists discovered the new coronavirus variant B117 (501Y), it had been spreading around the world for several months.
Lauren Ancel Meyers, Director of the Consortium for COVID-19 Modeling at the University of Texas at Austin, pointed out: "By the time we learned of this mutation in the UK in December last year, it had spread silently around the world. We It is estimated that the B117 type may have arrived in the United States before October 2020, but we did not know its existence until two months later.”
Researchers estimated that British tourists will be in 2020 by analyzing data from 15 countries. The odds of bringing this variant to 15 countries between September 22 and December 7, 2015. They found that by mid-November, it was almost certain that this virus variant had appeared in all 15 countries. In the United States, the variant may have arrived in mid-October.
"This research highlights the importance of laboratory surveillance," Meyers said. "Quick and extensive sequencing of virus samples is essential for early detection and tracking of new variants of interest."
UT COVID-19 While publishing papers, Modeling Consortium members also developed a new tool for decision makers across the United States to use when planning genetic sequencing to help detect the presence of mutations. To help the United States expand nationwide surveillance of variant viruses, the new online calculator indicates the number of virus samples that must be sequenced in order to detect new variant viruses when they first appear.For example, if the goal is to detect the mutation when there is a mutation in 1 out of every 1,000 new cases of COVID-19 infection, then about 3,000 SARS-CoV-2 positive samples need to be sequenced every week.
"Health officials are looking for better ways to manage the unpredictability of this virus and its future variants," said Spencer Woody, postdoctoral fellow at UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium . "Our new calculator confirms How many SARS-CoV-2 positive specimens must be sequenced to ensure that new threats can be identified once they begin to spread."
In addition, he also said that this calculator has another function-"Considering the current laboratory It can also help laboratories determine how quickly they can detect new variants.”
Meyers said: “We created this tool to support (U.S.) federal, state, and local health officials in establishing reliable early warnings. System to respond to this and future pandemic threats."
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