As we all know, the most advanced chip technology in mainland China is currently 14nm, and SMIC has already achieved large-scale mass production.
However, it is extremely difficult to break through below 14nm, because the United States currently has a comprehensive blockade in EDA, semiconductor equipment, materials, talents, technology, etc.
The United States obviously wants to lock down our 14nm logic chip process and prevent us from mastering more advanced processes. This will make it easier for the United States to get stuck.
However, although processes below 14nm are stuck, we should not panic at all, because currently there are not many chips using processes below 14nm. After all, 28nm still accounts for 75% of the market share of .
is shown in the figure below. This is an analysis by an organization of the chip proportions of mature processes and advanced processes with 28nm as the dividing line. In fact, processes of 28nm and above are called mature processes.
can see that in 2022, the proportion of chips using 28nm and above processes will be as high as 75%, and by 2024 it will be as high as 76%, more than three-quarters.
In fact, everyone knows that the current technologies below 14nm are basically GPU, CPU, and Soc.
A large number of automotive chips, MCU, Internet of Things, consumer electronics chips, etc., mostly use 28nm or even more mature processes, and for a long time, these chips will not migrate to 14nm and below processes.
The reason is that mature technology is more cost-effective and can also achieve a better balance in terms of power consumption, performance, chip area, etc., so people will not be in a hurry to switch to advanced technology.
Especially the 28nm process, has always been the lowest cost process for a single transistor. It is also the limit of planar lithography of DUV lithography machines. It is also the process with the highest input-output ratio among wafer and manufacturers.
Therefore, although we can only stay at 14nm for the time being, it means that we can actually meet at least 75% of the production of chips and , so there is no need to panic.
Therefore, we have seen that in recent years, SMIC, UMC , and TSMC are all trying to find ways to expand 28nm. Especially SMIC, which has four major projects including SMIC Shenzhen, SMIC Beijing, SMIC Oriental, and SMIC Xiqing, all focus on 28nm and above process manufacturing. The reason is that currently increasing 28nm production capacity to meet the needs of the domestic market is more reliable than pursuing advanced technology.
Of course, advanced technology is also needed, and mature technology is just a stopgap measure. But even if we cannot break through advanced technology, based on the above data analysis, we actually don’t need to panic so much. What do you think?
