Author Sun Guogen
The new coronavirus pneumonia caused by the new type of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a rapid pandemic worldwide since its outbreak at the end of 2019 until August 13, 2021. The number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 205,338,159, with more than 4,333,094 deaths. Although the current global coverage of vaccination is widespread, according to incomplete statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO), the worldwide coverage of vaccines has exceeded 4 billion doses. However, from June 23, 2021 to August 12, 2021, daily The number of confirmed cases increased from 302,979 to 686,063. What is more worrying is that the Delta strain variant (the B.1.617.2 variant of SARS-CoV-2) is more contagious and more aggressive than the previously circulating new coronavirus strain. However, facing the complex environment where Delta may even produce more variants in the future, the increase in vaccination coverage has also caused more and more regions to relax epidemic prevention measures. Let’s think about this: Why has the number of daily new cases continued to rise worldwide in the past two months? In the future, what advice can we provide for the anti-epidemic measures against the new crown pneumonia?
To this end, the reporter recently interviewed experts from the National New Coronary Pneumonia Medical Treatment Expert Group, Professor Fudan University , and famous infectious disease expert Professor Lu Hongzhou .
When asked why the new crown cases are rebounding in the world? Lu Hongzhou believes that there are three reasons:
The first is the widespread spread of the Deltaspan virus. Since the Delta virus variant was discovered in India in December 2020,It has spread widely in more than 120 countries and has caused 465,679 confirmed cases as of August 2021. Compared with previous virus variants, Delta virus is twice as infectious and spreads faster. The Delta variant not only triggered the second wave of COVID-19 infections in India in April 2021, but also caused the largest number of Delta cases in the United Kingdom. As of August 13, the United Kingdom had 246,284 confirmed cases. Although the vaccination rate in some countries is very high, starting from late June 2020, new crown cases have begun to rebound. Unfortunately, scientists surveyed existing vaccinated populations and showed that Delta virus can also be transmitted to fully vaccinated people. And people who have not been vaccinated are more likely to spread Delta through contact. Even Delta may have the same virus titers in unvaccinated and fully vaccinated people.
The second is to relax the epidemic prevention measures. In addition to vaccination, strict implementation of epidemic prevention measures also plays a big role. However, how to strike a balance between infection, death and economic loss is a major problem in the international context. A clinical study on the new crown predicts that the relaxation of social epidemic prevention measures in various parts of the UK will lead to a second wave of new crown risks, which may cause 23.4 million infections and 897,000 deaths. It is speculated that countries or regions that fail to strictly implement epidemic prevention and quarantine measures are most likely to be important regions where the new crown pandemic is showing a rebound trend. All in all, vaccination, combined with strict epidemic prevention measures, can effectively inhibit the spread of new coronary pneumonia virus variants.
Third, the number of asymptomatic infections increased. In our country where we strictly implement epidemic prevention measures and have a wide coverage of vaccination, we successfully resisted the first wave of Delta virus pandemic in our country. Despite this, there is still an increasing trend of new cases last month. Our research team summarized the data published by the WHO and found that the characteristics of the cases from August 1, 2020 to August 12, 2021 are as follows: Most cases are local cases,And the number of new asymptomatic infections daily is higher than before. Therefore, we speculate that asymptomatic infected people can also transmit the virus, which also coincides with other scientific studies. Our data shows that from April 20, 2021 to August 13, 2021, asymptomatic infections accounted for more than 65.8% (2521/3831) of new daily cases. Therefore, in the later stage of the new crown pandemic, we still particularly call on the public to pay attention to asymptomatic infections.
When asked how we should control the new crown rebound cases? Lu Hongzhou believes that asymptomatic infections, especially those who are asymptomatic in self-isolation, early release of intervention, etc., are a hidden challenge for the public. In response to this problem, Lu Hongzhou suggested the following:
First, in order to better understand the characteristics of asymptomatic infections and reduce the harm to the public, it is necessary to increase the infectivity, transmission rate, and transmission rate of the virus and its variants in the future. Mortality research.
Second, non-drug intervention can protect not only symptomatic infected persons, but also asymptomatic infected persons. Even in areas where the virus is well controlled, or in the later stages of the new crown epidemic, the public must maintain self-protection and insist on long-term measures such as wearing masks, hand disinfection, and maintaining social distance.
Third, comprehensive vaccination to reduce the risk of infection, including the risk of infection caused by asymptomatic infection.
Fourth, the Internet of Things technology needs to be vigorously developed and promoted in the new crown. As asymptomatic infections are usually difficult to find, contact tracking is also difficult, and the current criteria for removing patients from quarantine are not completely clear. Therefore, it is important to use Internet big data to implement remote monitoring. Through long-term follow-up, data collection, and patient follow-up, we will advance medical and healthcare decision-making for COVID-19 patients and even those who have recovered, and information management for the public’s public health. In the future, how the Internet of Things technology can accurately solve the problems of nucleic acid detection and fast tracking of new crown contacts and close contacts still needs to be further developed and improved at the technical level. In addition, how to use big data to predict the outbreak and rebound of disease epidemics? How to ensure the security and privacy of monitoring population data? The Internet of Things is in the field of controlling epidemics,These problems still need to be improved and resolved in the future.
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