On Christmas Eve this year, Zelensky made a surprise visit to Washington and brought back a gift package of weapons, including the "Patriot" missile air defense system that the Ukrainian army coveted. What type of "Patriot" missiles will the United States give to the Ukrainian army? How many sets of "Patriot" missile systems are prepared to be given to Ukraine? Will these Patriot missiles really love and fight for Ukraine? What exactly did the "Patriot" missile bring to Ukraine?
Mark, a retired American general, pointed out two issues. First, where will the "Patriot" missiles be deployed? Mark believes that this system must be deployed in the most strategic places, such as the capital, Kiev, and other cities. If this "Patriot" missile system is deployed dispersedly on the 805-kilometer border between Ukraine and Russia, this kind of air defense missile will not be deployed and cannot be comprehensive. The "Patriot" missile system must be deployed as an important air defense site. Second, the Ukrainian army will not be able to use the "Patriot" missile system in the short term. Mark pointed out that the training of the "Patriot" missile will take at least several months, and it is difficult to determine whether it can be used normally before the late spring of 2023. After all, this missile is more complicated and troublesome to use. Even if the "Patriot" missile is given to the Ukrainian army, when it will become combat effective is a question.
Not only that, an article published on the US biweekly website "Forbes" pointed out that the "Patriot" missile system may be considered to have important symbolic significance, but it will not be an important factor in changing the situation. Because with only one missile system, Ukraine will have a hard time deciding what to protect. If the main focus is to protect Kiev's power system, this will also simplify the problem of Russian intelligence agencies locating the "Patriot" missiles, and it will be much easier to attack.
Although the United States has not clearly stated the details of its assistance to the "Patriot" missiles, the basic situation can be analyzed. The "Patriot" missiles assisted this time are based on the launch company as a firepower unit. Each launch company has a two-in-one illumination radar, a control vehicle, an power supply vehicle and other auxiliary vehicles. A launch company has as many as eight launch vehicles. If the US military provides Ukraine with the "Patriot III" missile system, then each launch vehicle has 8 missiles, and the number of missiles in the launch tube owned by a missile launch company is 64. If calculated based on a one-to-one reserve bomb count, at least one "Patriot" missile launch battery should have 128 missiles, and at least 100 missiles. That is to say, the first batch of "Patriot" missile launch batteries provided by the United States to Ukraine should be equipped with at least 100 missiles. If calculated at US$4 million per missile, 100 missiles alone are worth up to US$400 million, not including the complete launch system.
Where exactly will the "Patriot" missiles be deployed? Once the deployment location is determined, it will be clear how many Patriot missile launch batteries Ukraine needs. Classified according to importance, at least five states need priority deployment. Kiev, Lviv, Odessa , Poltava, and Dnipro. These important places should deploy the "Patriot" missile system. That is to say, the United States should assist at least five "Patriot" missile launch companies, equipped with no less than 500 missiles. From Zelensky's perspective, the more the merrier, and the more he gives, the more Ukrainian national security can be guaranteed. But the United States may not necessarily do what Ukraine wants. After all, the "Patriot" missiles are valuable, and the United States should think twice about whether it can afford them.
Modern warfare competes on system combat capabilities. It is unrealistic to change the pattern of war and change the balance of strength in war with a single weapon and equipment. Including the "Haimas" multiple rocket launchers provided by the United States to Ukraine, they cannot change the pattern of the war. This is a realistic reflection of the reality on the battlefield. It is for this reason that the United States plans to provide Ukraine with "Patriot" missiles to establish an air defense system. When the "Haimas" multiple rocket launcher encounters the drone , its power is greatly attenuated.Although the "Patriot" missiles are coming again, there are still many unfulfilled wishes hanging on Zelensky's Christmas tree, including fighter planes, drones, Army combat tactical missiles, etc. Zelensky persuaded the United States to go all out to support Ukraine and provide weapons according to the weapons list, so that the Ukrainian army can completely defeat Russia in 2023.
Once long-range strike weapons such as manned fighter planes, advanced drones, and Army combat tactical missiles continue to enter Ukraine, they will inevitably cause a major blow to deep targets in Russia. This will cause the United States to fail to think of a direct military conflict with Russia. Although the United States has actually participated in the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it has still not torn away the last veil. If the United States provides these weapons of mass destruction and causes serious harm to Russia, Russia will inevitably retaliate against the countries that provide weapons and equipment, which will lead to a direct military conflict between the United States and Russia. Therefore, the United States has been thinking twice and being cautious about providing these weapons. However, as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues to progress, the United States may not provide it in the future. It mainly depends on how the battlefield situation changes. If Ukraine can achieve certain results by relying on the weapons in its hands, it is not ruled out that the United States will further support Ukraine in providing more advanced weapons. We can wait and see. (Text\current affairs commentator Song Zhongping )
