After the Russian army experienced two major defeats in 2022, many people have begun to predict the outcome of the future war between Russia and Ukraine.
Zonghengjun saw a foreign analyst’s recent comments on the war situation in Ukraine two days ago. He said: Ukrainian President Zelensky once said that the war started in Crimea and was destined to end in Crimea.
Therefore, this analyst, through studying and judging the battlefield situation, estimated that in the future, the Ukrainian army will use long-range weapons to attack the bridge between the Crimean Peninsula and the Ukrainian mainland, causing Russia to lose its logistical supply and transportation capabilities to the island, and then bomb the strongholds on the island one by one, causing Russia to suffer heavy losses. In the future, Russia's military forces in Crimea will be in a situation where they cannot be reinforced and can only be passively beaten. Finally, victory in the battle on the Crimean peninsula made the battle in eastern Ukraine meaningless, thereby defeating Russia.
Zonghengjun believes that, let alone whether this analyst’s military strategy is reliable, the most critical point of the above analysis is that Russia’s determination to defend Crimea is underestimated.
Most of the residents of the Crimean Peninsula are Russians . According to the relevant introduction on the website of the Chinese Consulate General in Odessa, Crimea has a population of 1.969 million, of which about 59.7% are Russians, 24.9% Ukrainians, and 313.1% Tatars. The local Russian ethnic population is dominant.
After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2014, Russia sent little green men troops to occupy key points on the peninsula. They are called little green men because these armed soldiers do not have any international military identification marks at all. Russia initially insisted that they were Ukrainian militia groups, but the West and Ukraine insisted that they were active military personnel of Russia, and both sides insisted on their own opinions. But no matter how the two sides argued, the actual result was that Crimea sought help from Russia, and the appearance of 22,000 little green men made Crimea, which originally belonged to the Ukrainian Autonomous Republic, break away from the control of the Ukrainian central government.
On March 11, 2014, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea declared independence from Ukraine in conjunction with Sevastopol .
On March 16, 2014, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea held a referendum to establish a new Republic of Crimea and officially announced its separation from Ukraine and joining the Russian Federation. Russia claimed that the total number of votes cast in this referendum accounted for more than 80% of the total population, and about 97% of voters supported Crimea's independence from Ukraine and joining Russia.
On March 18, 2014, Russian President Putin approved a draft treaty to admit the Republic of Crimea into Russia and form a new subject of the Russian Federation.
On April 11, 2014, Russia amended its constitution to include the Crimea region as a subject of the Russian Federation.
It is not difficult to see from the above series of operations that Crimea is now not only the actual occupied area of Russia, but also has been fixed as a content of the Russian Constitution.
In subsequent military operations, if Ukraine massively attacks Crimea, it will be tantamount to attacking Russia itself and is an act of declaring war. As a military power, Russia cannot give up Crimea. Russia is bound to use all military means to defend Crimea. Therefore, for Ukraine, a large-scale attack or even an attempt to seize Crimea is completely self-inflicted, and is likely to escalate what was originally a special military operation in Russia into a full-scale war.
In addition, the Crimea issue itself is very complicated.
During the Soviet era, leader Khrushchev divided Crimea into Ukrainian administration. As for the reasons and motivations, Khrushchev's son gave several reasons. One of them is that although Khrushchev himself is Russian, he has deep feelings for Ukraine.The handing over of Crimea to Ukraine was partly due to administrative needs, and partly in the hope that it would become a bond and make the relationship between Russia and Ukraine deeper.
As Crimea joined Ukraine, its demographics changed.
Initially, a large number of Tatars lived on this land, but after 1944, a large number of people immigrated to Central Asia, and the Russian population began to rise.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, Crimea's demand to leave Ukraine and return to Russia was once very loud, and a referendum was almost about to take place. This was due to the above-mentioned historical reasons. And this is why Russia can successfully carry out various political operations in the Crimea region.
Although the Crimean referendum in 2014 was hardly recognized by most countries around the world, it was very important to Russia.
In history, Peter the Great has already pointed out the way for Russia's strength: if Russia wants to be strong, it must control the seaports of two regions, one is the Baltic Sea and the other is the Black Sea .
The military ports of Crimea and Sevastopol are the key points in controlling the Black Sea and one of the vital points of Russia. Especially as Russia's strategic situation in the Baltic Sea region deteriorates, if it cannot seize the strategic key points of the Black Sea, Russia will be resigned to its own defeat.
The picture below shows that after 2022, as Finland and Sweden both seek to join NATO , Russia's situation in the Baltic Sea region has deteriorated considerably. The Baltic Sea has almost become an inland sea of NATO, and it also has more than 1,000 kilometers of border lines with Finland, a possible NATO country, that need to be defended.
Through the above analysis, there is only one problem to be explained, that is, no matter what method Ukraine uses to attack Crimea in the future, it will be impossible to truly regain the region, and Russia will not be able to abandon the region, because it is related to the fate of the country. On the contrary, if the United States insists on funding Ukraine's attack on Crimea, the final result will only be to make Ukraine get angry and make itself die even more miserably.
Another question is, under what circumstances will Russia’s special military operations against Ukraine end in the future? Zonghengjun boldly put forward his own opinion: Ukraine will eventually seek to become a neutral country, amend the content of the constitution that requires joining NATO, and will no longer be under the actual control of either Russia or NATO, because this is Ukraine's destined fate.
Here we might as well review Ukraine’s several national turns.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent country, but the question of its future has always troubled Ukraine because Ukraine is the target of Russia and the West. But Russia generally still hopes to have good relations with Ukraine - not only for historical reasons, but also for practical interests. Russia has done a lot to solidify the relationship.
On the one hand, Russia is wooing Ukraine, because Ukraine controlled the most important naval base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet at the time. When there is no conflict between the two parties, Russia has actually been moving towards Ukraine. Two things illustrate the problem.
For example, in 1991 Crimea sought independence as a country, but under Russian mediation, it eventually became part of Ukraine as an autonomous republic. In this matter, Russia helped stabilize the situation in Ukraine.
In addition, Russia and Ukraine have always used agreement to lease the Sevastopol military port, rather than forcefully occupying it.
For example, on April 21, 2010, Medvedev as the President of Russia and Ukrainian President Yanukovych reached an agreement. Russia sold low-priced natural gas to Ukraine to support its people's livelihood and industrial development. At the same time, Ukraine agreed to extend the lease of the Basevastopol military port for 25 years.
Precisely because Russia has huge military interests in Ukraine, it has always been attracted by Russia. Ukraine's independence and national development defense line were influenced by Russia from the beginning.
On the other hand, due to Ukraine's very special position, it has always been the target of NATO and Western groups. In terms of demographic structure, the people in western Ukraine are generally more inclined to join the Western Group in thinking. They hope to seek more decent jobs by joining NATO and the EU .
The people in eastern Ukraine hope to maintain good relations with Russia from an overall perspective. Ukraine's entire country's heavy industry and agricultural centers are concentrated in the eastern region. Residents here have relatively high incomes but are not worried about jobs. The division of the population has given the United States an opportunity to take advantage of it.
In July 2010, then-President Yanukovych signed the "Law on Principles of Domestic and Foreign Policy", legally confirming Ukraine's non-aligned status.
. This marks that Ukraine has clearly given up its diplomatic strategy of joining the Western NATO or joining the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. This is obviously acceptable to both parties and is the smartest decision. It can be said that Yanukovych's approach of not expressing his position did not leave any excuse for both parties. This approach cleverly maximized Ukraine's interests and became a sweet potato that both parties wanted to win over.
However, in February 2019, Ukraine passed the Supreme Parliament’s constitutional amendment and wrote NATO’s membership into Ukraine’s national constitution, which means an overall shift in the country. As Ukrainian politics as a whole turns to the West, conflicts and conflicts between Ukraine and Russia will inevitably break out.
Zonghengjun just feels very sorry, because leaders who do not understand international politics rashly decide the direction of their country, which will lead to this tragic result - since Ukraine has to choose to be an enemy of Russia, Russia can only use force to change the status quo.
Regarding the peace issue in Ukraine, Russia hopes to make Ukraine a neutral country under the following conditions.
First, Ukraine gave up joining NATO and maintained a neutral status. In exchange, Russia was willing to become the guarantor of Ukraine's security.
Second, give Russian the status of the second official language of Ukraine and remove all restrictions on Russian.
The third and fourth are to recognize the independent status of Donetsk and Luhansk 'republics', and to recognize Russia's sovereignty over Crimea.
Fifth, Ukraine should de-Nazify and ban extreme nationalism, ban the activities of Nazi and neo-Nazi parties and social organizations, and abolish existing laws that glorify Nazis and neo-Nazis.
Sixth, the demilitarization of Ukraine, that is, the complete abandonment of offensive weapons.
Under the above conditions, Russia hopes that Ukraine will modify the terms of joining NATO-whether this modification of the supreme law is based on the awakening of a certain political leader or the vote of the Ukrainian people, Russia must achieve its goal.
So far, Russia’s determination to achieve the above goals through military operations has not changed. At least there is no intention to relent. Russia will continue to fight until it achieves its goals. In addition, the code for peace was actually in the hands of Ukraine from the beginning.
As the leader of Ukraine, he should have a clear view of several issues:
First: Ukraine is now in war because it failed to recognize its international status, strategic status, geopolitical status reality and rashly decided on the direction of national policy. Some people excuse Zelensky , saying why Ukrainians can’t decide the direction of their own country? Actually, of course, the problem is that Ukrainians themselves are divided on where to go. As the country's supreme leader, he should not use some people to suppress others, but should grasp the balance and maximize interests. From this perspective, Zelensky failed very much.
Second, Ukraine has lost its future in the war. Ukraine's existing military equipment was completely exhausted in the war, and its basic industrial capabilities were fatally damaged.A large number of infrastructures have also been damaged. Six million young people in Ukraine have fled overseas. The entire country has fallen into a huge debt crisis and cannot recover in a short time. After the war, not only did it have no funds to rebuild its infrastructure, it also lost its industrial capabilities and almost completely became an agricultural country. Such a Ukraine has no future. NATO will not want it, the EU will not want it, and neither will Russia. Therefore, Ukraine's end has long been doomed, that is, being abandoned by everyone.
If Zelensky steps down, I hope Ukrainians will understand that not all countries in the world can have an independent will, because the earth is originally a world of the weak and the strong. As Ukraine is in a special geographical location, if it can't find a way to return to the neutral track, the future will only be even more miserable.
