This is a street scene in Kiev, Ukraine, taken on the evening of February 26, 2022. (Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Dongxu/photo)
Since February 2022, the Russian-Ukraine war has stirred the world. International crises have emerged in many fields such as economy, energy, and food. In October this year, NATO and Russia held nuclear deterrence exercises one after another, and combat readiness signals confronted each other across the air, and the clouds of nuclear war were once again shrouded.
"Although the Russian-Ukraine wars occurred in Europe, they have an impact on the world. This makes us think about how to deal with instability in the future and how to maintain global security." On December 1, Deepdra Singh Huda, retired lieutenant general and former commander of the Northern Military Region of India, said at the meeting.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has shown that the spillover of risks brought about by regional conflicts is threatening global security. In other parts of the world, there are still many "powder barrels" with similar risks of conflict.
On December 1, 2022, at the Beijing Xiangshan Forum expert video conference, many Chinese and foreign scholars conducted in-depth discussions on issues such as regional conflicts, global security, and how to control risk spillovers.
Interviewer
Dipdra Singh Huda - Retired Lieutenant General, former commander of the Northern Military Region of India
Yang Xuguang - Retired Major General, China International Strategic Society Senior Consultant
Shi Daoan - Outstanding Researcher of the Chinese Project of the American Institute of Peace
Savash Bissel - Retired Colonel, Turkish Professor of the Department of Political Science and International Relations, School of Business Management, Nissantas University, Erqi
Li Shuyin - Colonel, Researcher of the War Research Institute of the Academy of Military Sciences
The Russian-Ukraine War stirs up the world
"The Russian-Ukraine War has made the whole world worry about security issues." Lieutenant General Dipudra Singh Huda was once the former commander of the northern Indian military region. He believes that the Russian-Ukraine conflict is a good case for exploring regional conflicts to affect global security.
Hu Da gave an example, saying that Russia and Ukraine account for about 3% of the world's exports. Even so, the impact it has on the world is still serious, including the economic, energy and food crisis brought to Europe. In addition, Asia-Pacific did not directly participate in the war, but still felt the impact on regional security, economic and social affairs. For example, India, Japan and other countries have announced that they will increase their defense budgets.
Hu Da believes that the intervention of big and powerful countries has given global affairs a "spillover" impact. And a great country has the responsibility to prevent conflicts. However, they need to be very politically mature, restrained, and to curb their own idea of using force to resolve territorial disputes or other issues.
"Some countries have used military power, but I don't think this is the way to solve the problem in the future." Huda said that we hope that the problem will be resolved peacefully among major powers, which requires extensive and timely consultation and dialogue. If a system for resolving disputes cannot be established, we will witness the escalation of conflict sooner or later.
"The shadow of nuclear war caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has made people in the world feel very uneasy." Yang Xuguang, retired major general and senior consultant to the China International Strategy Society, said that although the major nuclear-capable countries in various aspects have recently expressed their statements that the nuclear war cannot be fought, cannot be fought, and cannot be won. However, with the current Russian-Ukrainian war no signs of ending in the short term and the situation is still deteriorating, the possibility of a nuclear crisis cannot be completely ruled out.
In addition, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused great harm to both Russia and Ukraine and European countries, causing a huge impact on global economy .
As one of the important stakeholders of the conflict, Europe not only undertakes the work of receiving large numbers of refugees, but also has to deal with huge uncertainties in energy supply and prices. If the supply of natural gas from Russia is completely cut off, many European powers will face severe economic recession, while Eastern European countries are in a more difficult situation. More than nine months after the outbreak of the
conflict, the economies of all countries have been severely dragged down, and the global economy shows signs of recession. After the epidemic, the global economic recovery has been very fragile, and the escalation of conflict and sanctions on Russia have further exacerbated the economic crisis.
In terms of food supply, once the global supply balance is broken, food inflation can easily spread to other regions.After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, concerns about the global food crisis have continued to intensify, and more than 20 countries have implemented food export bans, etc.
Yang Xuguang believes that the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still escalating and the prospects are unclear. To this end, countries need to work together to address the challenges these conflicts pose to global security and avoid catastrophic consequences.
"Suspending war, persuading peace and promoting talks is the only correct method that the international community should take, rather than adding fuel to the fire to provide weapons and military aid," said Yang Xuguang.
"Behind the risk spillover"
Why is the negative impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict so great?
Li Shuyin, a researcher at the War Research Institute of the Academy of Military Sciences, analyzed that in the context of globalization, people live in a global village, "You have me, I have you." This is one of the objective reasons for the impact of (global) supply chains.
"Some countries have taken advantage of the crisis to strengthen the Cold War thinking, engaging in group politics and camp confrontation, and accelerating the process of anti-globalization. (They) intend to build trade barriers and build a high wall in small courtyards. This is also an important reason why the negative impact of this conflict on global security continues to increase." Li Shuyin said.
Take the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as an example. In order to eliminate the impact of the conflict on global security, Li Shuyin believes that Russia and Ukraine should resume peace talks as soon as possible and strive to achieve a ceasefire. At the same time, the United States should strengthen dialogue and communication in order to fundamentally resolve the crisis.
"The person who tied the bell still needs to untie the bell. The roots of the conflict are very many and very complex, but there is a very important reason, that is, NATO's eastward expansion." Li Shuyin proposed that Russian senior leaders have repeatedly stated that Russia's goal of launching special military operations is the unipolar hegemony led by the United States, and the United States is actually the actual "investor" of Ukraine. According to public statistics, in the past year, the United States' security aid fund alone has reached US$19.7 billion, and the aid equipment has been continuously upgraded. Since the outbreak of the
conflict, the game between the United States and Russia over sanctions and counter-sanctions has further promoted the escalation and spillover of the crisis, which has affected global energy security and food security. Including some European countries, due to the impact of energy crisis, there are even dangerous signs of de-industrialization of .
"In addition to the US policy of long-arm jurisdiction over , the imposition of stimulus sanctions on other countries has further expanded the impact of the crisis. Practice shows that sanctions cannot resolve the crisis, but will intensify the contradictions and bring about new crises." Li Shuyin said.
"Globalization is irreversible, sometimes with cycles, and it does not always move forward." Savash Bissel, professor of the Department of Political Science and International Relations, School of Business Management, Nissantasi University, Turkey, believes that it is more difficult to maintain a stable and peaceful situation in a multipolar environment. Because this requires "more wisdom and more participants", which increases uncertainty.
In order to prevent regional conflicts, Bissel proposed several action plans. For example, before regional conflicts, major major powers or allies can form a consensus on potential factors that may cause conflict in the region, and we will work together to prevent conflicts from occurring. At the same time, allied countries have the obligation to prevent conflicts. "For example, you can't let the ball slide down on a lawn without holes, which will only become more and more dangerous and eventually get off the track," Bissel said.
"We must pay special attention to the harm of military escalation." Regarding how to manage the crisis, Shi Daoan, an outstanding researcher at the China Project of the American Institute of Peace, pointed out that there are many so-called "powder keg" areas around the world, most of which have potential conflicts in politics, military or economic aspects. It is precisely because we underestimate the possibility of conflict that conflict becomes more dangerous.
"For example, in the Ukraine situation, many people say that they will not escalate again because each side wants to stop. And in Polish , (not long ago) an missile accidentally killed two people. We will not be lucky all the time. We may encounter some unexpected situations, and these may cause the war to escalate." Shi Daoan said.
Southern Weekend Reporter Mao Shujie
