Author: Xiao Zhan (researcher at Womin High-Tech Ward Research Institute)
From November 24, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict lasted for 9 months. So will this war continue to fight? How long will it take to fight? Who is the final terminator?
first, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is really boring, it is time to end the
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In terms of duration, number of casualties and comprehensive losses, it has far exceeded the Gulf War , Iraq War , and Afghanistan War, especially the impact on the world. It can be regarded as the largest war since the end of the Cold War .
, but it has been playing for too long, and the impact on 's global economy is really bad. Since Russia is a major oil and gas exporter, the fight against Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to an increase in oil prices around the world. Especially in European countries, many households cannot afford heating, which further brings global inflation of publicization, companies are in trouble, and financial crisis has also followed. What’s even more interesting is that it is clearly the second military power in the world, and the whole world is waiting for Russia’s sword to strike with thunder, but the performance of the Russian army is really disappointing. It is obviously a fighting nation, but now when fighting, I don’t see how fierce it is!
is really boring, so it's better to end it quickly.
However, it is easy to fight, and now it is not that easy to end! It's not Putin , nor is it that Zelensky wants to end, but it can end.
So, from a strategic perspective, who will determine the final terminator of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
Second, Ukraine has almost been crippled now, but it is by no means Zelensky who can decide how the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ends
Many people say that as long as Zelensky surrenders, will the Russian-Ukrainian conflict end? The reason is that simple, but the reality is not. There are three questions about this. First, does Zelensky dare to surrender? Then, can Zelensky surrender? In the end, will Zelensky surrender?
specific analysis, please see the article by Ward Research Institute yesterday: "
Third, can Putin end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict according to his own wishes?
On February 24 this year, Putin signed an order to launch a special military operation against Ukraine, which officially started the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It can be said that Putin pulled the trigger in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. But can Putin end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at will?
Obviously, it can't! The fundamental problem of
is the performance of the Russian army on the battlefield, which is surprising, and at least completely subverts the Russian army's perception of " world military second strongest country" in the minds of many people.
The Russian army could have been used to resist the entire NATO . What people never expected was that after the Russian-Ukraine war, the Russian army actually dragged Ukraine on the battlefield and did not gain much advantage.
The Russian army initially launched a general attack on the Ukrainian capital Kiev , but the equipment, personnel size and combat effectiveness of the Russian army were really not very good. Kiev could not attack. He was also particularly worried that the Ukrainian army would cut off the retreat route and counter-encirclement, so he was forced to withdraw from Kiev.
At that time, there were many Putin fans in our country. Although they couldn't accept the Russian army's evacuation from Kiev, they still explained on behalf of Putin with a beautiful imagination, saying that this was Putin's big strategy to better launch an attack in eastern Ukraine.
But later, I thought I had occupied the strategic center of bonus Mann, but was recaptured by Ukraine's counterattack. The Khlsong region had already voted to become Russia's territory. Putin once said that attacking the four states that have recently joined Russia is like attacking Russia's homeland, so Russia's nuclear weapon will exert its power.
Unexpectedly, using nuclear weapons to did not scare Ukraine, nor did the United States and NATO behind Ukraine. The Russian army had to withdraw from the western region of Khlsong .
It is obvious that although the Ukrainian army cannot defeat the Russian army as a whole, as long as the United States and NATO continue to provide Ukraine with aid, it will be difficult for Russia to win completely.
This can only explain one problem. The Russian army is indeed not as powerful as everyone imagines. Otherwise, 300,000 would not be recruited because they were afraid that there was not enough manpower now. Otherwise, Russia would not withdraw from Khlsun. Otherwise, Russia would not have withdrawn so many commanders or replaced so many coaches. Otherwise, Russia would not let this war become a protracted war between the United States and Russia.
So, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been in this way, and it is no longer something that Putin can end just as he wants.
Fourth, can the United States and NATO end the war in Russia-Ukraine conflict?
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is a "stage" and a "fire" that the United States and NATO have made.
On the one hand, the United States and NATO will not easily end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
The United States and NATO ignited the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. One of the fundamental purposes is to consume and drag Russia to death. If this goal is not achieved, the United States and NATO will not give up easily.
Judging from the current battlefield situation, the United States and NATO do not need to send a large amount of military aid to Ukraine in order to support the Ukrainian army and Russia to continue to fight. In the eyes of the United States and NATO, this investment is not large, they can fully afford it, and they can effectively waste Russia on the battlefield.
On the other hand, it is also difficult for the United States and NATO to easily subdue Russia on the battlefield.
From the perspective of war, a lean camel is bigger than a horse and still works in Russia. Although it is difficult for the Russian army to attack and occupy Ukraine, it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to completely drive the Russian army out of Ukraine with the help of the United States and NATO.
Moreover, the more difficult the Russian army is, the stronger the combat effectiveness. Once the United States and NATO take action directly, it may completely awaken the combat effectiveness of the Russian army.
, and Russia has always had powerful nuclear weapons as a support to ensure that it is not subject to too much "bullying".
So, it is difficult for the United States and NATO to end the war in the Russian-Ukraine conflict!
is fifth, so who will the final terminator be?
Whether the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will end in the end and what form it will end. After all, it fundamentally depends on the strength competition between the two sides. The first few
have analyzed the situation of various forces. Since no force can easily defeat the other, the key forces outside the battlefield will be destined to determine the final outcome of this war.
And who will this key force be?
The Russian army is very brave, but why can't we win a big victory on the battlefield? An important reason is that Russia's weapons and equipment can no longer keep up with the requirements of modern warfare.
If someone can give Russia these things, the battlefield situation will be different immediately. Another important reason for
is that Russia is still short of money. Although oil and gas prices rose a lot after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, few of them could be sold due to sanctions.
and money, now it seems that there are not many countries with trade surplus .
This is the key to determining the final direction of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict!
