Will Russia suffer the most serious failure since World War II in Ukraine?
Judging from the current situation, this is not impossible.
The question now is, under what circumstances is Russia a failure and what impact will it have?
The security situation further deteriorates
Putin ordered the launch of this special military operation with the goal of maintaining Russia's strategic security.
The current situation is that after 9 months of war, Russia is even more insecure. Almost all the goals set by
were achieved.
On the contrary, Ukraine gradually strengthened its military strength in the war with the support of the West.
weapon system has been "NATO" and the tactical system has gradually been Westernized.
has accumulated rich experience in the long-term battle with Russia.
In the future, if you officially join NATO, it will pose a more serious threat to Russia's security interests.
From this perspective, Russia's special military operations have at least not been successful.
Another point, based on various information, the number of casualties of the Russian army should have exceeded 100,000.
plus the large amount of military equipment invested proves that Russia has suffered a heavy blow on the "book".
's far-reaching impact on Russia
The current conflict is overdrawing Russia's strategic deterrence.
If Russia was the second military power in the world before the war began, no one would doubt it.
But nowadays, the West generally believes that Russia's ability to war is stretched. If
is not attacked, the deterrent force will always exist. This attack will expose your shortcomings.
If the decent ends, it will have many impacts on Russia.
First of all, lose control over Central Asia.
The United States has never been able to intervene in Central Asia because these countries are afraid of Russia and dare not get too close to the United States.
However, today, Russia does not even have the ability to effectively mediate the conflict between Asia and Afghanistan, which proves that its influence in this region is declining seriously.
Next, the United States will take advantage of the situation.
Secondly, its deterrence ability to the Caucasus region has decreased.
Georgia battle, exerted the majesty of Russia, and the Caucasus region has been very calm for many years.
But the situation is different now. The United States has begun military exercises in this region, and Georgia has also begun to get ready.
It can be seen that Russia's ability to control the former Soviet Union is declining significantly. The impact of
is even greater than the collapse of the Soviet Union.
So, for Russia, there are currently two options.
or formally declare war on Ukraine, launch a real war, and win at all costs.
or stop in time and lose face but not lose your inner self.
In short, it is time for Putin to make a decision.
