Russia-Ukraine war, who is the country with the most heavy losses but looks the most innocent? The answer is undoubtedly Germany.
Why is Germany the most costly but the most innocent?
The reason is very simple. The economic losses in Germany in this war were obvious, but this war was something he absolutely did not want to happen. Everyone has seen that the Beixi natural gas pipeline was bombed and it will be impossible to repair it in the first half. Germany's lack of energy will be impossible to solve it in the first half. Germany's economic and people's livelihood losses are objectively immeasurable. Originally, after the launch of Beixi No. 2, Russia will transport 110 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Germany every year through two pipelines: Beixi No. 1 and Beixi No. 2 . That is really great for Germany's economy and people's livelihood! However, now everything is gone.
What's even more terrifying is that Germany is now under huge pressure from four aspects, and its situation is very embarrassing and difficult!
The first aspect of pressure is from Ukraine. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine War, Ukraine has hardly given Germany any good face. Germany is a country that aids Ukraine. Under normal circumstances, it is a country. Ukraine should be smiling. However, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine War, Ukraine never gave Germany any good face. The reason is that Ukraine's face not only represents Ukraine itself, but also represents the attitude of the United States. To put it bluntly, there are people behind Ukraine. In general, both the United States and Ukraine were dissatisfied with Germany, and the reasons for their dissatisfaction were mainly concentrated in the fact that Germany did not spend enough money in the Russian-Ukraine war and insufficient weapons of aid.
Is Germany really enough weapons to aid Ukraine?
Objectively speaking, Germany has basically provided assistance to Ukraine with its old-fashioned equipment. According to normal circumstances, it is indeed a lot, but both the United States and Ukraine believe that Germany should spend more money and provide assistance to more equipment. In Germany's view, all this is a helplessness. Germany has to provide assistance and is not so willing to provide assistance. This state of course has attracted continued dissatisfaction from the United States and Ukraine. The Zelensky government has continuously condemned Germany from the "moral" level and forced Germany to "make money" to send weapons... · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · Germany felt that various pressures from the United States did not have just begun recently. As early as 5 years ago, when Trump first took office, the then German Chancellor Merkel flew to the United States to "please" Trump, but was embarrassed by Trump's contempt. At that time, Germany tried to bring relations with the United States closer for a year. Later, Merkel found out that it was not possible and turned to the East again.
At that time, Trump was indifferent to Europe because the United States required , including Germany, NATO , allies to increase military expenditure to at least 2% of GDP. Now, although the Biden administration has not made this demand strongly on the surface, various other pressures are still obvious after European countries raise military spending.
In the face of the pressure from the United States, Germany actually has no good way to deal with it. On the one hand, we are forced to pay for equipment, and on the other hand, we have to be discredited by some Western countries. Germany's sucker state makes it difficult for us to equate it with a Western power. It has to be said that excellent leaders are too important to a country, and the gap in wisdom shown by Scholz and Merkel during his tenure is too big. When Merkel was in office, Germany would also be angry with US President Trump, but Merkel would at least not be angry with cowards, would not suffer in silence, and would even cause trouble for the United States. However, Scholz does not have this ability. He looks like an innocent and helpless "novice" who has no opinion on the United States and Ukraine.
The third aspect of pressure comes from Poland and other countries. Poland is extremely hated against Russia, and both sides have a very deep historical hatred.Poland also hopes to completely defeat Russia by NATO, led by the United States, in order to eliminate its biggest enemy, which is the result of Poland's day and night thinking. At the same time, Poland still has territorial demands for Ukraine, and he wants to obtain the territory of western Ukraine through the Russian-Ukrainian war. A country with strength like Poland is still trying to expand its territory, and it is really ambitious. However, to achieve the goal of expanding territory, Poland needs money, a lot of money. Who has the money? Germany has money, so Poland wants to take advantage of the power of the United States and the opportunity of the Russian-Ukrainian war to "bleed" Germany.
How do you want Poland? Poland is a fantasy idea. He wants Germany to pay World War II compensation to himself, and the amount is as high as 1.3 trillion US dollars. To this end, Poland also launched a diplomatic note on Germany, and the German Foreign Minister also visited Poland specifically for this. The German Foreign Minister said that the reparations for World War II have been completed.
Germany is really angry everywhere now. Not only Ukraine and Poland want to blackmail, but even Greece has begun to demand war compensation from Germany. Obviously, at this stage, everyone is in financial difficulties, so they all think about "big eaters" and want to take the opportunity to take a bite from Germany.
What should Germany do when faced with this pressure? In the end, it is highly likely that Germany will pay some money. Although this money will not appear in the form of compensation, it is difficult for Germany to not think about it at all.
The fourth aspect of pressure comes from Russia. Russia's pressure on Germany is also obvious, because Russia continues to demand that Germany resume energy transactions, such as constantly requiring Nord Stream Line 2 to be air-conditioned. Faced with the continuous pressure from Russia, with the wisdom and courage of the current Scholz government in Germany, there must be no backbone, so I simply said nothing. The problem is that it is not enough to say anything. Finally, amid Russia's urging, the US forces directly blow up the Nord Stream pipeline. Now, even if Germany doesn't say a word, it still doesn't have enough natural gas. In the end, it has to "kneel" from the United States, and the United States has already taken the "blood-letting" knife and put the natural gas price at a "sky-high price".
Faced with huge energy price pressure, Germany has planned to spend 200 billion euros to deal with the rise in energy prices. The German government has invested a lot of money to prepare to provide 200 billion euros in subsidies, but this also means that Germany will lose more than 200 billion euros in this energy crisis.
At the same time, Russia is also facing tremendous pressure, including the recent bombing of Crimea Bridge and local attacks. What should I do if Putin ? Faced with the current situation, once Russia can't bear it, it may have to escalate the war. The result of the escalation will inevitably cause huge pressure and greater losses to Germany.
There is no doubt that Germany's losses in the Russian-Ukrainian war were very huge. These losses are not only inflation caused by rising energy prices, but also economic losses in at least two aspects.
On the one hand, affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike , a large amount of European funds flee from Europe to the US market. We only need to look at the rise of the US dollar against the euro to see the leopard. The Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates at least 5%, and it will take at least two years to enter the interest rate cut cycle. It is completely difficult to calculate how much funds will flow from Germany to the United States during this period, and this loss is very huge.
But for Germany, the escape of financial capital is not the most deadly, the most deadly is that Germany's industrial capital is also fleeing Germany. Germany is a country based on high-end manufacturing. If Germany loses high-end manufacturing, then Germany's economy will be hopeless in the long run. However, reality seems to be exactly that.
It is no exaggeration to say that the most core purpose of the United States provoking this Russian-Ukrainian war and raising interest rates is to eat up high-end manufacturing industries in Western manufacturing countries including Germany and Japan to improve the competitiveness of the US economy.
According to media reports, The United States is increasingly trying to poach companies from Germany through low energy prices, especially in southern states. 60 German companies have landed in Oklahoma, including Lutha , Aldi and Siemens . These companies have invested about $3 there. Georgia also promotes cheaper and safer energy and supports new companies to invest in the United States through tax relief .
The German government seems to be aware of the danger of de-industrialization of brought by high energy prices. The German Secretary of State and Chief Economic Advisor of the Prime Minister's Office said: "Germany is facing the threat of outflow of important industries." This may also be the reason why Germany has provided 200 billion euros to subsidize high energy prices. However, in the face of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline, Germany's high energy prices will not change substantially, and these policies can only delay this process. According to reports, the German automobile industry is also expanding its business scope in the United States. However, in addition to subsidies, Germany is also replacing natural gas supply from Russia with the search for adequate supply of the United States, Middle East and Africa. But the problem is, no matter how cheap you are, it is not as cheap as the United States, and the United States itself suffers from high oil prices.
For Germany, facing such a situation, there is really little hope for the future, because the United States has really attacked him, and it is merciless. However, in the view of Zhanhao , there is one way that can still be taken by Germany, that is China.
China is definitely a major strategic opportunity for Germany. This opportunity is mainly concentrated in three aspects:
1. China has a huge market space and the energy price is also cheap. German companies come to China to invest in , which not only can win more Chinese markets, but also use cheaper Chinese energy, especially China's electricity prices are very cheap, which is definitely beneficial to the German economy. In addition to the low energy cost, China's manufacturing cost is low, including the overall cost of talents, land and supporting facilities.
2. Chinese companies are willing to invest in Germany. Because Germany has talents and technology, even if the investment cost is high in Germany, Chinese companies can still absorb this part of the cost because they own the Chinese market and the global market, so they are willing to invest in Germany. However, in order to respond to the United States, Germany artificially raised the threshold for China to invest in Germany, which is actually a continuous containment of the German economy.
3. Together with China, we can explore more international markets. China is now the world's largest manufacturing country and the largest trading country. China is carrying out increasingly in-depth cooperation with the countries of the "Belt and Road". Germany can fully cooperate with China and take active actions along the "Belt and Road" route, so that it can occupy more international markets. For example, a German company building factories in China can greatly enhance the competitiveness of the international market.
In fact, China and Europe have already negotiated an investment agreement, which was actively promoted by Merkel in the last six months with the help of Germany as the rotating presidency of the EU. However, after Merkel left office, the agreement was subject to the inability of some Eastern European countries to sign, which greatly affected the development of Germany's economy. In fact, some foresighted German companies have actively invested in China. For example, Volkswagen, Germany, has invested directly in Xinjiang, China despite the opposition of the United States. This is foresight.
Under the squeeze of the United States, Russia and Ukraine, there is really not much time left for Germany. If Germany does not make a choice and wait until the United States forces Germany to hostile to China next, it will be too late.However, as the saying goes, a pitiful person must have something hateful. Germany is indeed very funny. He is under great pressure at this time, but he is not actively developing cooperation with China, but instead sending military aircraft to Japan to train and exercise with Japan. Isn’t this for China to show? There are less than 10 military aircraft in Germany that can fly, and it is difficult to protect their own country. What is the point of training with Japan at this time? Demonstrate to China?
Germany's performance has been too poor recently. No wonder Merkel wants to make a comeback and has repeatedly suggested that the German government communicate with Russia. Compared with the Scholz government, Merkel is still much more experienced. Unfortunately, at least so far, Scholz seems to have not understood Merkel's words and has not made a better choice!
