Just when G7 were meeting to discuss how to continue sanctioning Russia to help Ukraine , NATO also announced that starting from 2023, the scale of rapid response force would be significantly expanded from the current 40,000 people to more than 300,000 to deal with Russia. high alert mission.
NATO had actually been strengthening its "eastern flank" defenses before the war between Russia and Ukraine began. The United States also mobilized troops and fighter jets from the mainland and deployed them to many nearby countries. However, as the war situation becomes more and more unfavorable for Ukraine and Lithuania the trend of "drawing NATO into trouble" becomes more and more obvious, NATO feels that it is necessary for member states to further strengthen their defense capabilities against the "eastern flank", but they can "take the lead" The current situation of the United States, Britain and Germany may not support them in doing so.
March 2022 NATO Strengthening "East Wing" Deployment Map
The German Chancellor has completely "transformed" since he took the train to Kiev to "check in" and met Zelenskiy some time ago. Not only is he against Ukraine's heavy weapons aid is no longer delayed, and its attitude toward Russia is on the same side as that of NATO countries. This time, when NATO intends to expand the rapid reaction force to strengthen the "eastern flank" defense force, the German Minister of Defense announced early on June 29 that Germany will provide a NATO rapid reaction force consisting of 15,000 soldiers. Division-level troops, as well as 65 aircraft and 20 ships. But can Germany's current military strength support such a huge NATO military expansion plan?
The current total strength of the German Army is only about 63,000, and even including the 35,000 quick reaction troops, it is less than 100,000. As of now, in NATO's strengthening of the "Eastern Wing" troop deployment operation, Germany has sent 1,315 soldiers to Lithuania and Slovakia. This proportion is not low for the current total strength of the German Army. Moreover, after years of significant cuts in the defense budget, the German Army's equipment has not only shrunk a lot, but there has also been a shortage of ammunition and spare parts reserves, which has even seriously affected its combat effectiveness.
Currently, there are less than 300 Leopard 2 tanks among the German Army's main battle equipment, more than 350 Mardel and Puma infantry fighting vehicles respectively, and only about 100 of the so-called most advanced PZH2000 self-propelled artillery. With such an army size and equipment level, it is no wonder that senior German army officials said in interviews in February this year that the German army can now barely complete NATO's coordinated command tasks. In addition, it has even lost the ability to protect its own country from attacks!
The former "Empire on which the Sun Never Sets" the British Army is currently stronger than Germany, with 80,000 active soldiers and nearly 30,000 soldiers in the Home Army. In terms of main battle equipment, there are less than 200 "Challenger 2" main battle tanks , thousands of armored vehicles , and hundreds of artillery with various ranges. It can be said that the British Army is in terms of current military strength. It surpassed the German Army. However, the former Chief of Staff of the British Army said in a recent interview with British Sky TV that the British armed forces were in a bad condition against the background of London providing funds and weapons to Kiev. It also pointed out that the number of British main battle tanks is too small, and the tanks cannot accompany the tanks on the battlefield. It also lacks advanced artillery and air defense systems . He also emphasized that the British government should not forget its own country's defense capabilities while supplying weapons to Ukraine.
From this point of view, Britain and Germany may not be able to make a big contribution to NATO's preparations to expand its rapid reaction force to more than 300,000 in the past two years. So, can the United States, NATO's de facto "boss", be able to make up for this? What about the gap? In fact, the United States is indeed NATO's largest "source of troops" provider in Europe. Since the war began, the number of U.S. military deployments in Europe has soared to 100,000, of which 10,000 are stationed in Poland, near Ukraine, and the U.S. military will This base in Poland will be built into the first batch of permanent US military bases to strengthen the defense of the "eastern flank". In addition, more troops will be deployed to Romania and the Baltic countries in turn, and two additional F-35 squadrons will be sent to the United Kingdom to strengthen the defense capabilities of Germany and Italy and improve the Spanish Navy's operational capabilities.It seems that the US military is still very powerful and seems to be capable of containing Russia's possible future actions.
But after all, the United States still has to "control" the world situation. There are currently about 170,000 U.S. troops deployed around the world all year round, which is already very high considering that the entire U.S. military has less than 1.4 million active soldiers. You must know that in order to maintain its 170,000 soldiers stationed overseas, the United States now operates more than 700 overseas bases of varying sizes. A large portion of the U.S. military's huge military expenditures are spent on these "overseas assets" every year. It can be seen that the current 100,000 U.S. troops stationed in Europe have actually concentrated the vast majority of all its overseas troops. The scale has far exceeded the 80,000 U.S. troops stationed in Japan and South Korea before. However, the United States cannot maintain this situation for a long time. After all, many of the US military troops concentrated in Europe are mobilized from other "hot spots". If the troubles in Russia cannot be solved for a long time, it is difficult to guarantee that the original reliance on a large number of US troops The "hot spots" of "repression" will not explode.
The U.S. military is now facing the dilemma of recruitment difficulties. Military experts and U.S. Department of Defense personnel admit that the U.S. military is currently experiencing a serious shortage of volunteers and an increase in the number of personnel unsuitable for service. It is facing the most serious shortage of soldiers in the past 50 years.
As of June 2022, the U.S. Department of Defense has only completed 40% of its contract recruitment plan for fiscal year 2022 (until September 30). And because a large number of Americans of working age refuse to join the military for fear of being harmed psychologically or physically, the U.S. Department of Defense has even relaxed the quality of its soldiers in order to increase its supply of soldiers, including those suffering from diseases, drug addiction, and criminal offenses that were previously unfit for service. Exemption scope. It also plans to relax the acceptance conditions for patients with asthma and attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (many people in the United States seem to have this disease).
It can be seen that NATO's ideal of expanding the rapid reaction force to 300,000 next year may not be realized. After all, the United States, as NATO's largest "troop source" provider, can now be said to have done its best, and this scale is not yet sufficient. It must be maintained for a long time, otherwise the United States' status as a "hegemon" will be challenged by many "characteristic regions" in the world.
Therefore, it is very likely that NATO will start to promote peace talks between the two parties after seeing Ukraine "drain the last drop of blood" and use various means to make Ukraine accept the current "reality" so that NATO can ease the tension with Russia and transfer a large number of The garrison was withdrawn to its original location and the "win-win" situation of importing cheap energy from Russia was restored before the war. As for the post-war mess in Ukraine, that is not something that NATO or the European Union should worry about!
