Before March this year, international food prices had reached the highest level in 10 years. Since Russia and Ukraine are the "greater world silos", they contribute about 28% of the world's global trade volume of wheat, 55% of sunflower oil, , and 15% of corn and barley. Therefore, after the outbreak of the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the world food crisis further intensified, and the price of commodity , including food, also pushed up to its highest level since 1990. At the moment when international food prices are at their historical peak, India has spoken out: India can support the world. The question is, can India, which is difficult to "eat enough" for oneself, really save this food crisis and "feed" the whole world?
India boldly said it would "feed" the whole world
In mid-April, due to the major wheat producer Russia and Ukraine falling into geopolitical conflict, the world's food is at risk of serious shortage. Modi Laoxian said: "If WTO allows, India can feed the world."
A few days later, Indian Commerce Minister Peyush Goyal wrote on social media: "When the whole world is looking for a stable and reliable source of food supply, our farmers have ensured that our granaries are full of food and we are ready to serve the world."
Not long after
Goyal announced that they will plan to discuss with Morocco , Tunisia , Indonesia, Philippines , Thailand, Vietnam, Turkey , Algeria and Lebanon and other countries about the possibility of exporting wheat amid growing global demand.
However, shortly afterwards, on May 13, India's position was significantly reversed and announced restrictions on wheat exports. This "fierce face" in India has raised several questions: If India is not sure whether there is enough domestic supply, why should export food to the world? Why is export restrictions suddenly announced when exports are about to take off? Will this affect the image that India wants to build a reliable source of food to the world?
In fact, the answer is very simple and clear. According to the FAO, although India is the world's largest producer of milk and beans, it is also the second largest producer of rice, wheat, sugar cane, peanuts, vegetables and fruits, and is also one of the main producers of spices, fish, poultry, livestock and growing crops. In addition, it ranks first or second among several non-food crops such as jute and cotton.
However, like our country, India has a population of 1.393 billion in 2021, and is expected to surpass my country to become the world's largest population country by 2023. Therefore, despite being a major food producer, its domestic food security concerns will surpass any ambition to be a major agricultural exporter. Its share of global food and agricultural trade accounts for only 2.2% by value. Continuous exports are only possible when India can increase productivity in its agricultural sector and that Indian agricultural products remain price-competitive not only during the global supply crisis but also during normal times. To this end, it must make huge investments in agricultural inputs, infrastructure, agricultural technology and allow farmers to sell freely in the most profitable markets, including domestic and foreign countries, without restrictions. Otherwise, India will even support itself.
Where does India’s confidence in “feeding” the world come from?
The reason why India has the confidence to support the world is of course also has a certain theoretical basis. As Visiting Professor of Agriculture Ashok Gulati of the Indian Council on International Economic Relations Research, said: "Global rice trade is 51 million tons, while India exports 21 million tons! Are we not feeding rice eaters in the world? As long as the wheat prices are attractive enough, we have the ability to do this on wheat!" India is one of the few countries with an agricultural area that accounts for almost half of the geographical area. "In other countries, this proportion ranges from 10% to 25%, and China is about 11%, and Ganges Plain is the most fertile region in the world!" he added.
According to the "Agriculture Outlook for 2021-2030" released by FAO , it believes that India is one of the few countries that will promote increased food production in this decade.India's rice production is expected to grow faster than domestic demand, and the growth of global rice trade will be supported by India's overproduction. In addition, by 2030, global wheat production will increase by 87 million tons to 840 million tons, of which "the world's third largest and small wheat producer India is expected to provide the largest share of the additional wheat supply, and its wheat production will increase by 18 million to 20.3 million tons.
But all this is theoretical, just like the extreme high temperatures encountered this year, it has an impact on India's wheat and rice production, which ultimately led to India's wheat and rice export ban. In addition, in June this year, India also Restricted sugar exports. The rapidity and unpredictability of injecting such restrictions will prevent India from establishing long-term trade relations.
How likely will India feed the world in the future?
In addition to the uncertainty factors mentioned above, we can discuss the possibility of India feeding the world from the perspective of arable land. In this regard, we might as well compare it with our country. my country has 130 million hectares of arable land, while India has 200 million hectares. But at present, our country The yield per unit is 387 kg/mil, while India is 140 kg/mil, and most of our crop yields are more than twice that of India.
Of course, India's fertilizer and pesticide use is much lower than my country and the world average (see the figure below), which is called the potential for future food increase in India. But India is currently working to eliminate 27 pesticides that account for about a third of the domestic market. This may be beneficial in the long run, but if fertilizers and pesticides are restricted in the near future, then the goal of feeding the world It may still be a daydream.
Today, everyone is talking about the Sri Lanka crisis, which caused a bigger crisis due to the country's sudden turn to organic agriculture, which caused a collapse in the domestic agricultural system. Our goal is to reduce the amount of fertilizers and pesticides, but at least we should remember that the developed economy uses much more agrochemicals per person, which is why they are developed economies.
In addition to these optimism, NITI, India's top think tank Aayog's assessment of the supply and demand situation of agricultural products in India shows that even in 2032-33, the country may not have much surplus agricultural products available to the global market even in 2032-33. Despite the potential surplus in rice and wheat, India will live a tight-knit life on agricultural products including fruits and sugar.
In short, it seems that India will not hold up for the foreseeable future, and this situation is unlikely to happen soon if possible.
