The Beixi natural gas pipeline suffered "unprecedented" damage, and the short-term energy security situation in Europe became worse
Beixi pipeline that fell into a political vortex
Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and National Supervisory Commission website Han Yadong Xue Peng
The offshore pipeline of the "North Xi" natural gas pipeline leaked near Bornholm Island, Denmark, and a "bubble circle" with a diameter of 1 km was formed on the sea surface. (Picture source: Visual China)
gas leakage point caused huge turbulence on the sea surface. The largest leakage point caused turbulence on the sea surface with a diameter of 1 kilometer. The smallest circle was about 200 meters. A large area on the scene was white. On September 26, local time, an natural gas leak occurred near the " Beixi-2" natural gas pipeline. Just one day apart, the " Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline was also exposed to leaks.
"North Stream" natural gas pipeline is an offshore natural gas pipeline operated by North Stream Natural Gas Pipeline Company, starting from Russia and extending to Greevswald, Germany. The project includes two parallel pipelines: No. 1 and No. 2. It is expected that after completion and operation, "North Stream-2" will jointly transport 110 billion cubic meters per year of natural gas to Europe with "North Stream-1".
What are the reactions of all parties to the "unprecedented" damage suffered by the "North Stream" pipeline? What are the consequences of the destruction of the "North Stream" pipeline in the context of the European energy crisis and the Ukrainian crisis? Why is a subsea pipeline starting from Russia that directly connects to Germany through the Baltic Sea through ? Why is it deeply trapped in the vortex of geopolitical games?
The three branches of the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline suffered "unprecedented" damage at the same time, and the damage was unprecedented. The reason is currently under investigation. The Swedish surveying station detected two strong underwater explosions in the same waters where the leak occurred in the "North Stream-1" and "North Stream-2" natural gas pipelines on September 26. The two explosions occurred at 0:03 and 17:04 on the 26th of the 26th of Greenwich. The Swedish Maritime Bureau then issued a warning about gas leakage.
It is understood that one of the explosions caused an earthquake equivalent to magnitude 2.3, and 30 measurement stations in the south of Sweden detected the explosion. Bjorn Lund, associate professor of seismology at Swedish National Earthquake Network, said that being able to clearly see how waves in the waters in the incident rebounded from the bottom to the surface, which means "an explosion occurred."
Danish Energy Agency confirmed that three leaks were detected in the "North Stream-1" and "North Stream-2" pipelines. There are 2 "North Stream-1" and 1 "North Stream-2", which occur in the northeast and southeast of , Bornholm Island, respectively.
In response to the sudden accident, Beixi Natural Gas Pipeline Company issued a statement saying that the three branches of the "Beixi" natural gas pipeline have suffered "unprecedented" damage at the same time, and the damage was unprecedented. It is impossible to predict when gas supply will be restored. The reason is currently under investigation.
Danish Prince Frazier Rixson said at a press conference on the evening of September 27 that according to the comprehensive assessment of relevant Danish agencies, the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline leakage was not an "accident" but "deliberate destruction". The Danish Energy Agency's Director said in a press release that leaks in natural gas pipelines are extremely rare.
The Russian Embassy in Denmark issued a statement on a social networking website that day, saying that the embassy believes that the relevant institutions should conduct a comprehensive investigation into the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline leakage accident and disclose the investigation results. Russian President's press secretary Peskov told the media on the 27th that it is not ruled out that the pipeline accident was caused by sabotage activities.
European Commission Chairman von der Leyen said on social media on September 27 local time that she discussed the damage to the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline that occurred on that day, and EU will fully support the relevant countries in launching an investigation into the incident. Von der Leyen said any intentional damage to the energy infrastructure in use by EU countries is intolerable and will lead to "the strongest reaction."
"According to various reports at present, this incident is unprecedented. Because the possibility of a long-term underwater natural gas pipeline explosion due to technical failure is not high, this incident is more like human damage.Although the relevant parties in the pipeline did not disclose the cause of the accident, judging from the on-site photos, the damage to the pipeline was relatively serious, causing natural gas leakage. "Liu Qian, executive deputy director and associate professor of the Russian Central Asian Research Center of China University of Petroleum (Beijing), said.
Xu Gang, associate researcher at the Institute of World Economics of the China Institute of Modern International Relations, said that from the current situation, underwater explosions in the three pipelines of "North Stream" are unlikely to be natural causes. "The outer layer of the oil and gas pipeline is often wrapped in very thick steel shells and concrete, which is very strong, not to mention that the explosions occurred in three places in a short period of time. ”
Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline, which is the major energy artery in Europe, has been attracting much attention. The
"North Stream-1" pipeline was completed in 2011. It starts from Vyborg, Russia in the east and leads to Germany through the Baltic seabed. It is currently Russia's main gas pipeline to Europe. On September 2, the largest shareholder of the Nord Stream Natural Gas Pipeline Company, said that due to multiple equipment failures, the "North Stream-1" natural gas pipeline will be completely stopped from being transported. gas until troubleshooting.
"North Stream-2" is a follow-up project of "North Stream-1". The official website of Beixi Line 2 company said that after the completion of "North Stream-2", the imported natural gas price will fall by 13%, which can save 7.9 billion euros for European terminal consumers; investment in "North Stream-2" stimulates the development of the industrial economy, and more than 1,000 companies from 27 countries will benefit from it; compared with the natural gas pipeline that transits Ukraine , "North Stream-2" can reduce 8.9 million tons of html every year 4Carbon dioxide emissions .
The damage of the "North Stream" pipeline may indicate that at least until the arrival of winter in Europe, this major natural gas artery will not be able to resume operations.
Liu Qian analyzed that although the "North Stream-1" and "North Stream-2" pipelines are not operating normally for the time being, they have certain gas injection and air pressure to maintain the pipeline state. However, this explosion caused both pipelines to be unable to operate in the short term, and the maintenance of the pipeline requires consultation between Russia and the transit parties, which is currently It is almost impossible under the situation.
On September 27, the benchmark of natural gas prices in Europe , the Netherlands TTF natural gas futures price soared by 19.65% after falling to a two-month low, reflecting the market's risk pricing of the damage incident of the "North Stream" pipeline.
"At present, since the 'North Stream-1' and 'North Stream-2' are actually in the state of supply cuts, the psychological impact of the leakage of the "North Stream" pipeline on Europe is greater than the actual impact. "Xu Gang said that compared the fluctuations in TTF natural gas futures prices since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in February this year, we can see that due to the war process and the energy game between Russia and Europe, similar big rises and falls often occur, and the market is mentally prepared for this.
The United States and the European Union and other parties have their own plans. The "Beixi-2" pipeline is deeply trapped in the whirlpool of geopolitical games
Since the implementation, the "Beixi-2" pipeline project has become the focus of debate among all parties, and its construction process has been twists and turns.
The pipeline began to build the seabed part in 2018, but at the end of 2019, it was special. The sanctions imposed by the Trump administration have seriously affected the pipeline construction process. Due to the US sanctions, Russia has had to complete pipeline construction with its own capabilities. After overcoming a series of difficulties such as replacing the pipe laying ship and reapplying for a construction license, in September 2021, Gazpromium announced the completion of the construction of the "North Stream-2" pipeline and stated that it can be put into operation by the end of 2021. Due to opposition from the United States and other countries, "North Stream-2" has not been able to obtain an operating license.
"At present, the 'North Stream-2' pipeline is deeply trapped in the whirlpool of geopolitical games and is not a simple economic project. "Liu Qian said that the players surrounding the pipeline include not only Russia and the EU at both ends of the pipeline, but also the United States, which holds both political and economic goals, Ukraine, which is eager to invest in NATO , and the Baltic and Eastern European countries that hope to get rid of Russian natural gas. As direct participants in the game, the United States and Germany also have serious differences in their position on the "North Stream-2".
Although the "North Stream-2" pipeline is a pipeline that supplies natural gas to Europe, the United States is the most important game opponent for Russia to build the pipeline.
The United States firmly opposes the construction of the "North Stream-2" pipeline and imposes sanctions on the project. Former US President Trump once made remarks such as "Russia uses the Nord Stream-2 pipeline to turn Germany into a prisoner", "Europe uses tens of billions of natural gas pipelines to fund Russia", and "whoever builds the Nord Stream-2 pipeline will be sanctioned." In June 2019, the US Congress issued the "Protecting European Energy Security Act", requiring sanctions on the construction parties of the "North Stream-2" project. In December 2019, Trump signed the " National Defense Authorization Act in Fiscal Year 2020", proposing to impose sanctions on companies and individuals who remain involved in the "North Stream-2" project after the 30-day liquidation period, including revoking their visas to the United States and freezing their assets in the United States. After that, the US will include new sanctions against the Nord Stream-2 project in the "National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021".
Russia insists on building the "North Stream-2" pipeline and has insisted on completing the project construction under the conditions of sanctions. Russia stressed that in terms of supply, the United States cannot meet Europe's growing import demand and replace Russia on a large scale; in terms of price, the United States' liquefied natural gas (LNG) is also difficult to compete with Russia's low natural gas costs.
"'North Stream-2' is not just a natural gas pipeline, it is a manifestation of the further closeness and deepening of Russian-European energy cooperation, which leads to the opposition and sanctions of the United States." Liu Jun, deputy dean and professor of the School of Political and International Relations of East China Normal University, analyzed that the main purpose of the United States is to reduce the EU's dependence on Russia's energy by destroying the "North Stream-2" project, prevent Russia from exerting influence within the US-European alliance, control EU energy supply, increase US energy exports to Europe, and deepen energy control over Europe while realizing its own interests.
In addition to the United States and Russia, the main force in the game around the "North Stream-2" pipeline is the EU. But there are differences within the EU's position on the pipeline. Li Yonghui, a researcher at the Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the project will allow Russian natural gas to Europe to bypass Ukraine and directly connect Germany and Russia through the Baltic seabed. Germany has thus become the most important transshipment country for Russian natural gas. Some countries led by Germany hope that the pipeline will be completed and put into production, while the Polish and Baltic countries firmly oppose and demand to get rid of their energy dependence on Russia.
Ukraine, Poland and Baltic countries believe that the completion and operation of the pipeline will significantly increase Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas, and the direct pipeline will make Russia no longer care about the interests of transit transport countries, so that it can "blacklist" Europe as it pleases. Some analysts said that once the "North Stream-2" pipeline is completed and airtight, Ukraine will lose huge natural gas "transit fee", and the "transit fee" income of Slovak , Austrian , and Czech will also be significantly reduced.
The outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis has led to new changes in the game situation around the "North Stream-2" pipeline. The EU turned to the United States and adopted a policy of resolute sanctions on Russia and abandoning the Nord Stream-2 pipeline, while reducing Russia's oil and gas procurement volume. Russia uses rubles to settle natural gas and reduce the supply of the "North Stream" pipeline as a countermeasure. Under the complex situation, there is almost no possibility of "Beixi-2" pipeline being put into use.
"Any cross-border long-term oil and gas pipeline has geopolitical attributes, which is closely related to the scarcity of oil and gas resources and the ability of pipeline transportation to change the political and economic map." Liu Qian analyzed that behind the construction and operation of any cross-border long-term oil and gas pipeline in the entire Eurasian continent, there is a large amount of diplomatic mediation and game between major powers, and the "Beixi-2" pipeline is no exception. The reason why the "North Stream-2" pipeline is trapped in a more intense geopolitical game is that it is an alternative pipeline to a certain extent, and its purpose is to replace Ukraine's transit pipeline, which will fundamentally change the energy relationship between Russia and Europe and change Ukraine's geopolitical status.
The subtle time and space node in which the "Northern Stream" pipeline was destroyed indicates that the energy game between Europe and Russia may be further upgraded
Since June this year, as the Ukrainian crisis has entered a stalemate, both Russia and Europe have increased their use of energy chips.Due to sanctions from the United States and Europe, Russia first announced in mid-June that it would reduce the supply of "North Stream-1" to 40%, and in July, it suspended the supply of gas for ten days in the name of maintenance, and in early September, it announced that it would suspend the "North Stream-1" gas transmission indefinitely.
In addition to accusing Russia of using energy as a weapon to continue to increase energy sanctions on Russia, the EU has also launched active actions to try to break free from the energy dilemma caused by Russia's air shortage. Many European countries announced the restart of coal-fired power and nuclear power and postponed the carbon neutrality plan, and the world "looks for gas" to promote diversification of energy imports, promote oil prices for Russia and accelerate the pace of gas storage.
Liu Qian analyzed that Europe has several characteristics in energy supply. First, Europe's energy itself cannot be self-sufficiency, and the proportion of energy dependence on foreign energy is high; second, it is highly dependent on Russian oil and gas, and Russia is the main source of energy imports in Europe; third, it is in a hurry in energy transformation. It has previously launched a large-scale withdrawal of coal-fired power and shutdown of nuclear power, which has led to a prominent energy security situation. The Ukrainian crisis and Western sanctions on Russia have further exacerbated its energy supply tension. The pipeline accident made it more difficult to restore and put into operation of "North Stream-1" and "North Stream-2", the natural gas supply situation in Russia and Europe is more complicated, and the energy security situation in Europe is even worse in the short term, especially this winter.
Xu Gang said that the delicate time and space node in which the "North Stream" pipeline was destroyed indicates that the energy game between Europe and Russia may further escalate. "From the perspective of time, the referendum on the four eastern Ukraine states entering Russia came to an end during the destruction, and a new round of EU sanctions was ready to go; Poland held a ceremony for the opening of the Baltic natural gas pipeline, which was regarded by Poland as a major strategic project to get rid of its dependence on Russia's energy; from the perspective of location, the explosion occurred in Bornho, Denmark. In the high seas near Erm Island, the Baltic natural gas pipeline also passes through here. "
" In the long run, Europe will be more active and determined to find new sources of energy supply, and it will be more difficult to restore Russia-Ukrainian energy relations. From a geopolitical perspective, in the context of the further escalation of the current Ukrainian crisis, Russia, the United States and European countries will evaluate the use of this incident from their own perspective, which may further intensify the contradictions." Liu Qian said.
Xu Gang noticed that for Russia, the damaged oil and gas pipelines are assets of Russian oil and gas companies, and Russia's overseas interests and security are under new threats. Damage to oil and gas pipelines has also caused Russia's energy chips to lose its elasticity and room for rotation. For Europe, the destruction of the "North Stream" pipeline means that the energy infrastructure is no longer safe after the energy shortage, which will undoubtedly aggravate the panic of energy security and environmental concerns in Europe, forcing it to reassess its own energy security level and examine its external energy layout. "At present, most of the oil and gas pipelines in other directions in Europe pass through the seabed and face similar security risks. Regardless of the results of the follow-up investigation, NATO and Russia may increase security deployment and investment in the surrounding waters, especially the Baltic Sea."
"This incident is just a silhouette of the energy crisis and inflation crisis triggered by the Ukrainian crisis. This crisis not only weakens Europe's economic prospects, but also is profoundly changing the European political map, accelerating the rise of European populist forces, and increasing uncertainty in European policies." Xu Gang said.
Energy security is a global and strategic issue related to the country's economic and social development, and is crucial to the prosperity and development of the country, the improvement of people's lives, and the long-term stability of society. How to effectively ensure national energy security and effectively guarantee national economic and social development has always been the primary issue in my country's energy development.
Liu Qian believes that we must firmly adhere to the strategy of "the energy rice bowl must be held in our own hands." my country is a major energy consumer and an energy producer. my country's energy security must be based on independence, do a good job in ensuring energy supply, and maintaining my country's energy security; when my country's oil and gas import dependence is high, it is necessary to diversify import sources and import channels, "not putting eggs in one basket" and cannot rely on a single import source and channel; green transformation is a process, not a matter of overnight success. We must follow the path of energy transformation that conforms to China's national conditions, be firm in the energy transformation goals, and seek steady progress in the energy transformation strategy.
