[Text/Observer.com columnist Yan Mo]
Immediately after the assassination of Abe , the Japanese right-wing media "Sankei Shimbun" included the condolences from Lai Qingde (rather than Tsai Ing-wen) in the information of overseas political figures. The most eye-catching mark, second only to American politicians. It can be seen that Lai Qingde is not only the "golden grandson of Taiwan independence", but also the "baby of the right wing".
Then, amid three consecutive days of global consternation and a burst of praise for Abe, the Liberal Democratic Party won a resounding victory in the election. On the fourth day, it was suddenly reported that Lai Qingde went to Japan to express his condolences. Lu Yingpi cried and laughed, and "cheered" vigorously: This was the "highest level" visit to Japan since Taiwan and Japan "severed diplomatic relations" in 1972, and it was a major "diplomatic" breakthrough.
"Breakthrough" has become a synonym for self-excitement in Taiwan. The more I shout about it, the lonelier I seem. After three days of passion, the predicament remains the same.
Lai Qingde made a sudden trip to Japan to express his condolences. The Sankei Shimbun reporter in Taiwan explained it this way: The Liberal Democratic Party’s senators won a big victory in the parliamentary election yesterday, and the regime has peace of mind, so (Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ) gritted his teeth With a stamp of approval, Lai was issued a "Vice President" visa.
"gnashing one's teeth and stamping one's feet"? I don’t know whether Japan’s right-wing reporters are inherently so good, or whether they have unfortunately become addicted to drama after being stationed in Taiwan for too long. This pure chat without inside information shows that the level of Sankei is too low, almost comparable to that of Taiwan’s green media. This reporter often criticizes the political situation in Taiwan and can be called a flanker of the Green Camp. This is also a side evidence of the close relationship between the Green Camp and the Japanese right wing.
Abe's assassination is not good news, especially for those who hate Abe's right-wing stance. It is bad news because the victim always gets disproportionate praise and gives his followers an unexpected boost to fulfill some dangerous wishes. .
In addition, the "condolence diplomacy" gave the Japanese government the privilege of disclosing "forbidden love" (hereinafter adopted the mainland translation, written as "forbidden love"), Kishida "gnashed his teeth and stamped his feet", Lai Qingde followed the biography, and ended half A century of private trysts has created another rift in Sino-Japanese relations.
Lai Qingde's trip to Japan was completely unknown to the outside world. It was not until the Japanese media caught Lai's figure that the matter was exposed, as if it was a shame. The attitude of the Taiwan authorities is also extremely low-key, saying that this is a "private trip" and unwilling to say more. The Taiwanese media calls it "diplomatic art", but it is more appropriate to call it "mistress etiquette", because keeping a low profile is not what Taiwan wants, but it is obviously "ordered" by Japan.
Although the official attitude of Taiwan is extremely low-key, the "Green Committee" still insists that "the personal identity is the diplomatic identity and the special envoy to Taiwan." This shows how much the Green Camp wants to gain political dividends through Abe's death, and the Japanese government has no regard for "representatives of public opinion." Leveling up and expressing its stance in a straightforward manner has long been Japan’s new pattern of secretly maneuvering its way through Taiwan-Japan relations.
So, after Abe, what will be the direction of Taiwan-Japan relations? It concerns the rise and fall of Japan's right wing, the attitude of the United States, and how far Japan's current national strength can support its policy of "relying on the United States to control China."
Japan has nothing to do but look for trouble, only when it expands its military will real trouble
When it comes to Abe’s last wish, five words are enough to describe it: normalization of the country. After he left office, he vigorously discussed the Taiwan issue, which was only one of the means to realize his right-wing long-cherished wish. Saying that Abe "loves Taiwan most" is a propaganda terminology that allows the Democratic Progressive Party to coerce Taiwan as a whole to show gratitude. The reality is nothing more than a strategic quarrel between a small group of people on the other side and a small group of people on the other side.
"If something goes wrong in Taiwan, it means something goes wrong in Japan." Abe's words are not aimed at the Taiwanese, but at the Americans and the Japanese people who are content with the status quo. To the Democratic Progressive Party and its supporters, this sentence is a warm "pro-Taiwan" statement, but the connotation of the words is a cold call for military expansion.
Putting aside the sentimental and fake drama, from an economic point of view, does Japan’s military expansion mean that Japan is self-inflicted? This is the true proposition.
I remember Mahbubani raised an interesting question: Does China want the United States to increase or reduce defense spending? Regarding this, Mahbubani believes that China would like to see the United States maintain huge military expenditures and continue to engage in foreign wars, because the U.S. economy will eventually be unable to support such expenditures, just like the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
In the same way, can Japan's current economic situation support the waste of military expansion?
Abe’s economic legacy has been discussed a lot from all walks of life. Generally speaking, his “Three Arrows Plan” has mixed success, with both shortcomings and long shortcomings. Under the ultra-loose monetary policy, the good part is that the profit rate of Japanese companies has reached a new high, the unemployment rate has reached a new low, and the cheap yen has also boosted the tourism industry.
The bad part is the high level of debt amid a weak yen, half of the government bonds is held by the Bank of Japan. An unexpected global epidemic has covered up the dividends of ultra-loose monetary policy. Abe's "three arrows" did not solve the structural problems of Japan's economy, nor did they reach the 600 trillion yen GDP target he set originally.
The Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) even predicts that South Korea's per capita GDP will surpass Japan in 2027, and will be surpassed by Taiwan in 2028.
The reality is that the Japanese people have become accustomed to a deflationary environment. Their desire to save money is greater than spending money. They also have to pay "tax" on bank deposits, that is, they buy safes and put money at home. With the rise of "group homes" (sharing a room with strangers) and the proliferation of second-hand clothing stores, Abe has not promoted a society willing to consume.
The "three arrows" have been flying for ten years, but their momentum has waned. Now the outside world has predicted that Abenomics and will fade out of the stage of history along with Abe, but it will not be easy to change course in the short term.
In other words, expanding military spending is paired with weak economic support and people's frugality. When businesses and people are tight on their wallets, the government aggressively increases consumption expenditures that are useless to boost the economy...?
Yes, if Japan persists in its obsession and acts for the sake of its own beauty, China should be "happy" to see Japan expand its military. If there is nothing to look for, this country will enter another lost 30 years, and it will be even more miserable than the previous period.
The haunting Lee Teng-hui, and the United States' vigilance
The nature of Abe's playing the Taiwan card during his lifetime was to use force to exploit the Taiwan Strait issue as a pioneer against China, to induce the United States to relax its ties with Japan, and to achieve national normalization and military expansion.
Therefore, the warming of U.S.-Japanese relations does not mean that Abe is pro-American. In fact, it is quite the opposite. He wants to take advantage of the decline of the United States and the uncertainty about the rise of China to break away from the U.S. control of Japan. Before the goal is achieved, a pro-American posture must be adopted. The Indo-Pacific strategy is Abe’s medicine for the United States.
This idea actually came from Lee Teng-hui.
According to Masumi Hosaki, the author of "Secret Records of Lee Teng-hui", the relationship between Lee Teng-hui and Shinzo Abe is like a "mentor and apprentice". In 2010, Lee Teng-hui encouraged Shinzo Abe to "become prime minister again" and suggested that he amend the constitution and establish a " National Security Council (NSC) to strengthen Japan’s own deterrence and reduce its dependence on the United States.
2 years later, Abe returned to the Prime Minister's official residence; three years later, Japan established the National Security Council (NSC); six years later, Abe announced the "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" strategy (FOIP), a concept that was subsequently granted special Trump's government favored it, but it is still "in the ascendant" for disaster. Everything seems to be following the vicious plan of "Masao Iwasato".
The last step is to amend the constitution. Although Abe was unable to fulfill this wish during his lifetime, judging from the recent election results, Japan's constitutional amendment is inevitable.
Lee Teng-hui and Abe (File Photo/Taiwanese Media)
Amending the constitution, expanding the military, and reducing dependence on the United States, Japan’s right-wing is about to complete the last few pieces of the puzzle. After Abe's assassination, whether this force can accelerate the achievement of the target or whether it will lose momentum from then on depends on how the United States handles the possible outburst after Japan's constitutional amendment.
The United States is happy to see Japan expand its military, but what if Japan intends to reduce its dependence on the United States? When it comes to U.S. grand strategy, the answer is difficult to simplify. Judging from the signs of the United States' strong control over Taiwan, at this moment, the United States will also strengthen its efforts to control Japan, and will not sit back and watch Japan escape from control.
This is why, even though Japan is amending its constitution, the US attitude has always been secretive. After all, over the past year, Abe has vigorously advocated that the U.S. policy toward Taiwan should shift to "strategic clarity," and even advocated that Taiwan be included in "U.S.-Japan security," which has touched a sensitive nerve in Washington.
However, the above brief analysis applies to the United States in the past; it is difficult to say whether the United States will continue on its normal strategic track now.
The Biden team has been divided into two factions on China policy. Whether external interference from Japan will add points to or subtract points from the Democratic Party government depends on which faction wins. The observation point is to look at the final conclusion on tariffs on China.
Lee Teng-hui's line is to manipulate populism internally to create security fears, and to adopt strategies of deception and confusion externally. Abe has practiced it thoroughly.
The point is that the Japanese right wing is not essentially a pro-American political group, and is even dangerous. The American political elite actually knows this. After Abe was assassinated, the U.S. may be crying out loud, because Japan's trend of increasing military spending is almost certain. If the U.S. decision-making continues on track, the next step is to prevent the right wing from going too far.
In other words, Abe has fulfilled the wishes of the United States, but his own wishes have not been fulfilled. However, Lee Teng-hui's ghost is still there, and Japan's growth rate has shifted to the right, and it may not be able to turn back.
Taboo relationships in Taiwan and Japan, and the "Taiwan Independence Golden Sun"
"Forbidden" in Japanese usually refers to unethical relationships, and the Chinese meaning is "abstain". This word mentioned in this article sometimes has a Chinese meaning and sometimes a Japanese meaning. Readers can make their own interpretation.
From the perspective of China-Japan relations, at the moment of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, Japan - especially the right wing - has long-term secret collusion with "Taiwan independence", which is a "taboo relationship" and should be "taboo" because it is a regional The undercurrent of turmoil is a mine in the peaceful soil.
Japan, which has historical disputes with both sides of the Taiwan Strait, should not touch the Taiwan Strait issue. First, compared to the U.S.'s intransigence on this issue, Japan is more likely to misjudge the situation because it thinks it has a backer.
Furthermore, the current policies of the United States lack stability, especially in foreign policy. It is not surprising that it changes overnight. Afghanistan , Saudi Arabia , Israel, Venezuela , etc. are all obvious examples. However, Japan has been under one-party rule for a long time. Once a policy is decided, it is not easy to change it. " hairpin bend " is even rarer. Therefore, Japan's major policy changes have always been deeply wary of neighboring countries.
Among the three, although peace is the mainstream of modern Japanese public opinion, no one will underestimate the "blind obedience" side of its national character. A society that relies on the dictates of elites and a media that has close ties with the government can easily give rise to the collective will of hawks to "be willing to be crushed", unlike in the United States, where there are strong factors of disagreement.
Therefore, Japan playing the Taiwan card is more dangerous than the United States playing the Taiwan card. In the last moments of his life, Abe was using Taiwan to involve China and the United States in endless disputes so that Japan could "restore sovereignty."
Lai Qingde was Taiwan's "representative of the imperial people", "Taiwan independence's golden grandson", and right-wing treasure. The leader died on the street, and the leader of Taiwan's public hall naturally went to mourn. However, Taiwan and Japan have a taboo relationship. Although Prime Minister Kishida "gritted his teeth and stamped his feet" to let it go, he still had to rely on a "private trip" to hide it from others. Is "Lai Jinsun" despicable? Not at all, it is the duty of the imperial people to be humble to Japan, and it is an honor to be summoned.
Data map source: Taiwan media
As of now, Lai Ching-te is still the most promising next island leader, but his right-wing color is so strong that the United States is always worried about Lai. Therefore, it is worth observing whether there will be changes in the future. What is certain is that the United States will gradually increase its efforts to dominate Taiwan, and it will not be happy to see Japan's right wing embolden Lai Ching-te and once again sing "pragmatic 'Taiwan independence' workers."
In order to reassure the United States, Lai Qingde temporarily banned "speaking alone" and survived in the shadow of Tsai Ing-wen. Abe's death may make Rai particularly worried, because the right wing has entered a stage of reintegration, and its rise or fall is uncertain under the supervision of the United States.
Tsai Ing-wen, who is a stranger to Lai, once she discovers that the imperial power has declined, or her voice suddenly rises, the successor will probably not be Lai Ching-te, because Tsai is well aware of the conflict between the right wing of the United States and Japan.
All in all, the development of Japan's political situation will still be in a state of confusion for a while, and Lai Qingde's dynamics is also one of the observation indicators.
Lai Ching-te’s predecessor, Chen Chien-jen, has only recently joined the Democratic Progressive Party. The outside world generally interprets this as Tsai Ing-wen’s move on the successor issue, because the United States has always had doubts about Lai Ching-te, and the vague Chen Chien-jen is the “strategic Blur” is the first choice.
It should be noted that the Biden administration may also use "restraining Japan's right-wing" as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China. Although "restrained" is a foolish move, this US government has no good tricks to use, and it is difficult to underestimate it. Who knows whether the irrational passions of the Democrats will be unleashed on Japan by "gnashing their teeth and stamping their feet".
Unknowns are increasing, Abe was assassinated, which is not good news.
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